Mitch Picks the Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: BYU Vs. Arizona, Dec. 20, 2008

After what seems like an entire offseason all over again, Bowl season is officially upon us.

While this is the fourth game I've written up so far for the bowls, I seem to be way behind the curve as I've been seeing other guys put their picks out. I always take my time when doing my picks as I've done all season, not just that it's what my nearly half a million monthly readers and visitors expect.

I mean, how many bowl preview and predictions articles did you read last week that mentioned that "some guy" named DeMarco Murray wasn't playing in the Championship game? My guess is zero.

I don't just look at games and pick who I think is going to win—that isn't what it's all about. While I'm certainly not right 100 percent of the time and I butcher the spelling on some players' names, my goal is to always bring top-notch analysis to the table. I hope I've done that, and judging by the sheer numbers, I think I have.

As most people know, I haven't watched a pregame show or highlight show all season long. While I have heard the phrase "Dr. Lou" in my forum, I really don't know what it is, but I can only guess it has something to do with Lou Holtz. While I'm sure Lou doesn't come off as insightful as he did a few years ago, and he looks more like Granny from the Beverly Hillbillies every time I see him, the guy knows football.

I can only hope the guys at ESPN let him keep his self-respect and dignity, as they don't seem to have a problem shedding every bit of theirs for a few bucks or extra viewers.

In any event, there is still time to enter the free picking contest for the bowls. The entries are starting to flow in, though I'm not seeing the numbers I saw during the regular season. I'm hoping it's just you guys sorting through the numbers, as I know picking 34 games all at once is a pretty daunting task.

In any event, let me pick the game already. This is one of five of my bowl picks that I am writing in conjunction with other Bleacher Report writers, and the entire article will be seen there as well. For my regular readers and visitors, if you are going to Bleacher for the first time, be nice—I like it over there. While you guys certainly have the numbers to take over the place, please respect it as you do here.

I know a lot of people there don't know what they are talking about when it comes to college football, and you are going to see a ton of fluff articles, probably not the stuff you are used to, but these are good people and actually some very good writers.

You may see a lot of statements there that aren't close to fact, but that's just part of life. I will say that if you do poke in, be sure to check out the stuff written by Baby Tate, Lisa Horne, Justin Goar, and a lot of the guys who you see in the picking contest here, like Tim Pollock and Kristofer Green.

I am just mentioning a few, but really there are many once you sort through a lot of the biased rah-rah drivel. In any event, this was originally about a football game.

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

BYU (10-2) Vs. Arizona (7-5)

Saturday, Dec. 20, 2008, 8pm EST

The Line: Arizona -3

Overview

While I picked over 1,000 games against the spread this season, picking BYU games has honestly not been my specialty. While I know I've gotten my fair share of games right that they played in, it's always the losses that sit the worst, and I can honestly admit I picked UCLA +7 at BYU (Final score BYU 59, UCLA 0) and I had BYU -2 against TCU (Final score TCU 32, BYU 7). I guess that's what the comments section on my blog, Bleacher Report, and YouTube are for.

BYU enters this game at 10-2 and really had much bigger expectations on the season than this. They were seriously thinking BCS Title Game or at least BCS Bowl Game, but that obviously never materialized.

BYU started the season off extremely well, blowing out everyone in sight and with QB Max Hall being mentioned for the Heisman in just about every circle of the college football world.

Although there were signs of a possible chink in the armor with a controversial one-point win at Washington, most ignored it and felt the Cougars' season would come down to the Holy War with rival Utah to determine which of these two non-BCS schools would be the "BCS Buster." No one told TCU about these grand plans, as the Horned Frogs wood-shedded BYU in a game that was over after the first quarter.

While BYU has managed to win games since the TCU game, they haven't done it in convincing manner and haven't covered too many spreads. The question with BYU's timid finish is it a matter of them playing tougher teams in the second half, or is it a matter of BYU simply not being as good as many people thought? It's probably a lot of both.

After Arizona lost to New Mexico in the third week of the season and followed it up with a one-point loss to Stanford a few weeks later, many dismissed the Wildcats' year as another in a series of losing and disappointing seasons.

While Arizona managed a 7-5 season and went 3-3 after the Stanford loss, they rarely seem to step it up against the better teams. Their three losses in their final six games were to USC, Oregon, and Oregon State, while only one of their three wins came against a bowl team, Cal.

Arizona has been a Jekyll and Hyde, as they've covered in their losses against some of the tougher teams like USC and Oregon State when they lost but still have those inexplicable losses to Stanford and New Mexico, which are the types of losses teams headed to the next level just don't have. We are going to find out soon enough.

Some Stats

For those less familiar with my newsletter format (which I'm using for the game portion of this article), I don't generally list all of the stats I pore through when doing my analysis and picks. Rather, I just list the big basic stats as this is what I have found most people prefer. As always, if you want more in-depth stats or want to know some great links I use, feel free to hit the forum and ask away.

BYU

Offensive Averages

Points 35.3 (19th/2nd)

Overall Yds 444.8 (17th/1st)

Passing Yds 308.9 (7th/1st)

Rushing Yds 135.9 (72nd/6th)

Defensive Averages

Points 21.2 (34th/3rd)

Overall Yds 350.7 (58th/6th)

Passing Yds 206.5 (59th/5th)

Rushing Yds 144.2 (64th/6th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

Arizona

Offensive Averages

Points 37.1 (16th/3rd)

Overall Yds 401.3 (34th/4th)

Passing Yds 237.3 (40th/3rd)

Rushing Yds 164.0 (48th/6th)

Defensive Averages

Points 21.3 (35th/3rd)

Overall Yds 302.1 (20th/2nd)

Passing Yds 169.8 (14th/3rd)

Rushing Yds 132.3 (42nd/5th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

*Stats courtesy of statsheet.com

While most consider BYU to be the more prolific offense, scoring wise the numbers don't show that to be the case. If we're just looking at pure passing numbers, it's pretty obvious that BYU likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good at it, but it's Arizona who runs a more balanced attack.

Pay special attention to Arizona's scoring rank compared to their other offensive ranks—here is a team whose defense helps them out and who really knows how to take advantage of a short field.

Defensively, I see somewhat of a statistical mismatch in Arizona's defensive strength matching up with BYU's offensive strength. What I love about when I see matchups like this from programs of this size is we are going to see some great athletes matching up on one another.

The real battle on the defensive side of the ball may be whether BYU will be able to maintain their bend but don't break like numbers, something they weren't able to do the second half of the season.

The Trends

ATS Trends

Brigham Young

Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Arizona

Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Wildcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on grass. Wildcats are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Wildcats are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Wildcats are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite. Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. MWC.

*Trend info from covers.com

The Pick

I think these are two teams that started the season with reasonable expectations and stumbled along the way. In watching BYU this year, I don't think they belonged with the upper tier BCS schools like they claimed, and I think they could have easily had a few more losses, especially at Washington and Colorado State.

When I look at Arizona I see a team that underachieved again, while not quite to the level of underachievement Wildcat fans have become accustomed to.

For those who have followed me all year long and before, you know I like defense and I feel that is where games are won and lost, and I don't think this one will be any different. I think Arizona has a more than adequate offense to move the ball on a BYU defense that has been soft since the loss to TCU and regularly gives up a lot of points. If anything BYU's defensive stats have been somewhat padded, as they had a few shutouts early this year.

I think Arizona's pass defense shuts down or at least slows down the BYU offense enough for the Wildcats to walk away with their first bowl victory in a very long time.

Bleacher Creature Picks

Arizona: Trey Bradley, Lisa Horne

BYU: Michael Cline, Brian Scott, David Wunderlich, Justin Goar, GeorgiaDawg

Mitch's Pick: ARIZONA -3

Visit Mitch anytime and see all of his free picks at The College Football Place.