Wisconsin vs. Illinois: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

The Big Ten Conference has been in a state of flux for the last month or so, which is good news for the Wisconsin Badgers who will look to keep pace in the Leaders division when they take on the Illinois Fighting Illini.

The Badgers were being talked about as a national title contender early in the season, but two straight losses at the end of October ruined those plans. Now, they find themselves one game behind Penn State, who they play next week, in the Leaders division with two to play.

The Illini, like the Badgers, were doing so well at the start of the season. They were 6-0 and climbed all the way up to No. 15 in the coaches’ poll. Four consecutive losses have ruined everything, but they are still bowl eligible and can play a big part in determining who plays for the Big Ten championship with a win in this game.

Where: Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill.

When: Saturday, Nov. 19 at 12 p.m. ET

Watch: ESPN 2; ESPN3.com

Spread: Wisconsin (-14.5)

Not normally an offensive juggernaut, the Badgers have put together a terrific season with quarterback Russell Wilson calling the shots. They have scored at least 40 points in seven of 10 games, so that big spread should be easy for them to cover.

When you add in the fact that Illinois has played awful for the last month, you have a game that could turn into a blowout in a hurry. I’d like to give them some benefit of the doubt, but the offense hasn’t scored more than 14 points in a game since October 8 against Indiana.

Over/Under: 51.5

That number is conservative considering the strength of Wisconsin’s offense and the struggles of Illinois as a whole. The Badgers are going to put up a lot of points in this game and because they will be so far ahead late in the game, they will enter prevent mode and give up a couple of late touchdowns.

That 51.5 total is a good number to put on Wisconsin alone, but when you can bet that for both teams to score, you have to take the over.

Wisconsin Injury Report

Questionable: TE Manasseh Garner (Groin), WR Jared Abbrederis (Shoulder), DL David Gilbert (Foot)

Doubtful: OL Peter Konz (Leg)

Out: OL Casey Dehn (Personal), DB Devin Smith (Ankle), QB Jon Budmayr (Elbow), WR Chase Hammond (Ankle)

Illinois Injury Report

Questionable: OL Hugh Thornton (Knee), OL Corey Lewis (Knee)

Out: DB Trulon Henry (Hand), FB Zach Becker (Ankle)

BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications

Wisconsin controls its destiny in the Big Ten. With two more victories, the Badgers will find themselves playing in the inaugural conference championship game in Indianapolis on December 3, possibly in a rematch against Michigan State.

But first things first, they have to defeat Illinois. If they are unable to do that, then all the conference championship dreams could go up in smoke. This team has not had to face much adversity this season, but when they have, they have responded nicely.

Keys to Wisconsin Win

The Badgers have been led all season by quarterback Russell Wilson. He has been phenomenal with 25 touchdowns, 2,416 yards and a completion percentage of 73.4 compared to just three interceptions and none in the last three games.

To win on the road, you have to strike early and often. Wisconsin’s offense has been dominant in Big Ten play, so that shouldn’t be a problem.

With the exception of the games against Ohio State and Michigan State, the defense has been outstanding. They are going to force turnovers, so the offense will be given more opportunities to put up points and put the pressure on Illinois to keep up with them.

Keys to Illinois Win

During Illinois’ four-game losing streak, the offense has scored just 42 points. It will be vital for them to get off to a fast start in order to keep the crowd in it and put the pressure on Wisconsin’s shoulders. They have to find someone that will step up and make a play because nothing has been working.

With the offense struggling to find itself, the defense has stepped up its game and that will have to happen again because of Wisconsin’s quick-strike capabilities. They have to force Russell Wilson out of the pocket and get an early turnover just for morale purposes.

Prediction

Illinois has looked like a completely different team in the last four weeks, which does not bode well against a great Wisconsin team.

Badgers 48, Illini 17