NFL Picks Week 11: Predicting Games That Will Be Closer Than You Think

Stating the obvious would be to suggest that there will be some nail-biters in Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season. However, being more specific and narrowing it down to the numbers of games and which teams—well, that's a lot more fun.

Here are three from Week 11 that will prove to be closer than the critics believe.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins may be 7.5-point underdogs, but we have to remember, this is a team that almost beat the Cowboys in Dallas.

Now, obviously Dallas is a much-improved team since then and the Redskins have fallen quite far. But, Washington does play better at home, has a defense that's better than given credit for (No. 9 against the pass and No. 18 against the rush) and has forced its fair share of turnovers.

And regardless of how superior the Cowboys are, we've seen how inconsistent they can be.

All this being said, Dallas gets a sound road win thanks to a rookie RB named DeMarco Murray who is taking the NFL by storm. No defense has yet to contain him and the Redskins won't either.

However, Washington will prove to somewhat slow Dallas' offense while being strictly careful when possessing the rock themselves. The Cowboys are in complete control throughout, but it never really gets out of hand to blowout status.

Cowboys 20, Redskins 6

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears

Here we have two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, at least in recent weeks.

San Diego began 4-1 but has lost four straight and is 1-3 on the road. Chicago, however, has won four straight after beginning 2-3 and are beginning to solidify itself in the NFC playoff picture.

So with a lot at stake for the Bears, expect the Bolts to play with reckless abandon. Since Chicago does have something to lose, it will be no surprise when they begin a little flustered, afraid to make mistakes, etc.

Nonetheless, Chicago is the more talented team and they have a much better grasp at controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bears average 120 rush yards and allow just over 100 rush yards per game.

The Chargers are once again an exact opposite. San Diego averages a little over 100 rush yards per game while allowing almost 130.

Hence, it goes without saying that Chicago will run the ball more, run it well, control the trenches and the clock.

Bears 21, Chargers 16

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

When the Giants defeated the Eagles 29-16 in Philadelphia early on, New York had a lot more success throwing the football than most would think.

QB Eli Manning threw four TDs and zero picks, whereas Philadelphia turned the ball over three times and fumbled three times (despite not losing a fumble).

The Giants jumped out quick and although Philly fought back to gain the lead, New York never really lost control of the momentum.

This time around the Eagles literally have nothing to play for, however the Giants should be expected to bury them as smashing Philly's confidence is what you want to do to a paper champion.

That said, the Eagles will keep this game close because they're now in the spoiler role and have no reason to hold anything back.

They still have a top-10 offense in both passing and rushing and the Giants have trouble holding opponents below 20 points.

New York wins because of an established ground game that sets up the pass, but Philly keeps it close thanks to an explosive offense despite a few turnovers.

Giants 23, Eagles 20

Be sure to check out John on Bleacher Report. 

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