NFL Week 11 Picks: Gauging the Least Likely Upset Scenarios

For as many close game as the 2011 season has endured, the big upsets haven't been nearly as common. Now, obviously, bigger upsets are the rarest to begin with. However, they've become even more rare this season.

Adding to it, there are some pretty hefty underdogs for Week 11. That being said, they also have no shot at pulling off the upset.

Click the link for a full view of the Week 11 NFL Line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Packers)

Heading into Lambeau Field against Green Bay this week, the Buccaneers are 14-point underdogs. This comes as no surprise, but being that the game is home for the Packers, shouldn't it be more than just two TDs?

Tampa Bay has arguably the NFL's worst defense (ranks No. 28 and No. 29 against the pass and run), and their offense is barely one-dimensional. As for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers will shred virtually any defense he faces, and the Packers defense is only getting better in defending the pass.

Of all the games this week, Bucs over the Packers is easily the least likely upset scenario. So, if you're a betting person, feel safe in taking Green Bay against the spread.

Upset Gauge: 1 in 500

Packers over Buccaneers, 49-13

Arizona Cardinals (at 49ers)

A slightly more even game than Green Bay-Tampa Bay, though still a highly unlikely occurrence. Arizona is feeling confident coming into Candlestick Park on a two-game win streak, whereas the 49ers look to continue winning games by controlling the clock and the line of scrimmage.

Also favoring 'Frisco is their recent history against Arizona. The 49ers have been that team who the Cardinals seem to have the most trouble against, and that especially goes for WR Larry Fitzgerald.

San Francisco is a 9.5-point favorite, but based on recent performances, they'll win by at least 10 points. For one, Arizona lacks a rushing attack, so the 49ers' front seven need not even blitz. And although the passing game is San Fran's weakness, they have a solid pass rush.

Now, when the Cardinals' defense is on the field, they have trouble in both areas (rush and pass defense). That said, RB Frank Gore has another field day and outperforms every RB this week. In turn, that allows 'Frisco to wear down Arizona and gradually build a comfortable lead. 

Upset Gauge: 1 in 100

49ers over Cardinals, 35-14

Kansas City Chiefs (at Patriots)

When the Chiefs play at New England in Week 11, it has somewhat of a "something's gotta give" feel to it. Kansas City has the No. 27-ranked pass offense, and the Pats still rank dead last in pass defense.

As for the trenches, K.C. ranks No. 10 in rush offense and New England ranks No. 9 in defending the run.

However, when Tom Brady and company take the field, it's a whole different ballgame.

For starters, New England still has the No. 1-ranked pass offense, and the Chiefs' strength is defending the pass (except they still allow over 230 yards). Therefore, expect Brady to pick apart the K.C. pass defense, cover the 15-point spread given the K.C., thus forcing the Chiefs' offense to keep pace (which won't happen).

Kansas City is an offense that thrives on balance, and being explosive isn't their forte. So, they must hope the defense is able to slow down New England's offense. To be frank, not gonna happen unless it's Steelers, Ravens or Giants.

Upset Gauge: 1 in 80

Patriots over Chiefs, 38-16

Be sure to check out John on Bleacher Report. 

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