NFL Power Rankings Week 11: Odds Each Head Coach Returns for 2012
Ten weeks into the NFL season and the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers have clearly separated the themselves from the rest of the pack.
The Saints are a pretty clear No. 3, but it gets a little bit hazy after that.
This week we also look at which coaches are on the hot seat and need to finish strong to keep themselves employed.
32. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts dropped their best remaining chance to win a game Sunday at home against the Jaguars. They do play Jacksonville one more time this season, but they just have the look of an 0-16 team.
It is really hard to see Jim Caldwell keeping his job after this debacle. Anytime they show him on the sidelines he just looks like a deer in the headlights. He is not ready to be a head coach in the NFL.
Odds of Jim Caldwell Returning in 2012: Pretty much zero
31. Washington Redskins
The Redskins dropped another tough one against the Dolphins on Sunday. Their season has spun out of control in a hurry.
Obviously the decision not to bring in another quarterback during the offseason has proven to be a terrible one. They might not win another game this season.
Mike Shanahan is not on the hot seat in Washington yet, but he better get things turned around next season. He is an offensive coach, and their offense has really struggled this season. The major concern there is that they need a lot of help at the skill positions on offense to be any good.
Odds of Mike Shanahan Returning in 2012: Good
30. Cleveland Browns
The Browns continue to disappoint. They had such high expectations heading into the season, but they have taken a big step back from last season.
Of course it doesn't help anything that Peyton Hillis went from one of the best running backs in the league to a distraction.
This is Pat Shurmur's first season with the Browns. It would be unfair to blame him for a lot of the struggles the team has had because of injuries. He will get some time to get this franchise on the right track.
Odds of Pat Shurmur Returning in 2012: He is a lock
29. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are another team that had some lofty expectations heading into the season. They have not been able to live up to those expectations due to injuries and a bad defense.
They did get a win on the road this past week, and it is not too much of a stretch to think they could win the next two games against the Seahawks and Cardinals.
Spagnuolo will enter the final year of his contract next season. He looked to have gotten his team headed in the right direction last season just to see them take a huge step back this season.
He will get another year, but he better produce some results in 2012 or he will be a coaching free agent after that season.
Odds of Steve Spagnuolo Returning in 2012: Good
28. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have won two in a row. That is pretty impressive considering a month ago it looked like they might end up 0-16.
That is the good news. The bad news is that their schedule gets tough starting this week when Buffalo comes to town. Do not be surprised if they end the season 2-14.
The wins the last two weeks will keep Sparano from getting fired during this season, but there is no way he is the head coach of the Dolphins in 2013.
Odds of Tony Sparano Returning in 2012: In the words of Hawk Harrelson, "He gone!"
27. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers got embarrassed at home by a Tennessee team that is mediocre at best.
They have a tough game in Week 11 against the Lions, but their schedule softens up a little bit after that with games against the Colts and Buccaneers.
Ron Rivera has done a pretty good job in his first season as Panthers head coach. They have already scored more touchdowns this season than they did all of last season.
The defense is still bad, but Rivera has a good track record as a defensive coach. He will have them playing well given time.
Odds of Ron Rivera Returning in 2012: 100 percent
26. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals got a big win over the Eagles on Sunday.
There is a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball in Arizona. The biggest problem has been that Kevin Kolb has not played as well as they hoped he would when they traded for him before the season started.
Ken Whisenhunt has done a pretty good job in Arizona. They have won the NFC West in two of his four full seasons with the team and made a trip to the Super Bowl.
This season has been a bit of a disappointment, but they could finish strong to get some momentum for 2012. Whisenhunt's job is not in jeopardy at this point, but it will be if they are not better in 2012.
Odds of Ken Whisenhunt Returning in 2012: Almost a certainty
25. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle shocked the NFL world when they knocked off the Ravens on Sunday.
They travel to St. Louis in Week 11. That is a winnable game. After that they get three in a row at home against the Redskins, Eagles and Rams. It is not hard to see them winning two of those three.
Peter Carroll has done a good job since taking over before the 2011 season. They won the division and a playoff game last year. This year has been tough because of injuries, but they have some of the pieces in place to make a late-season push.
Odds of Pete Carroll Returning in 2012: 100 percent
24. Denver Broncos
The Broncos won against the Chiefs on Sunday while only allowing Tim Tebow to throw eight passes.
If they only let him throw eight against the Chiefs, how many will they let him throw this week when they face the Jets?
John Fox is going to build the Broncos around defense and running the football. It remains to be seen if Tim Tebow is his quarterback of the future or not, but he will get a few more years to try and bring the Broncos back to prominence.
Odds of John Fox Returning in 2012: There is no doubt he will be back
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars beat the worst team in football on Sunday. There are not many other teams in the NFL that they could beat right now.
Jack Del Rio will be out after the season is over. He has had a few successful seasons, but he was on the hot seat before this season started. Winning fewer than six games is never a good way to save your job, and the Jags look like they would be lucky to get to six at this point.
Odds of Jack Del Rio Returning in 2012: Slim to none
22. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are still a few players away from being back in contention. They have the best running back in the game, and a young quarterback who looks to have a promising future, but they still have a lot of holes.
This is Leslie Frazier's first full season as the Vikings head coach. He has not gotten the best results yet, but he will be given more time to put his stamp on the team.
Odds of Leslie Frazier Returning in 2012: 100 percent
21. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have followed up a huge win over the Chargers with two bad losses to the Dolphins and Broncos.
Things do not get any easier for the Chiefs with five of their last six games against teams that will probably be in the playoffs, and they will be playing those games without Matt Cassel.
Todd Haley has done good work as the Chiefs coach. This season has been a disappointment, but it is tough to win games when your best player goes down for the season in Week 2.
Haley is pretty rough around the edges, but he is a good football coach.
Odds of Todd Haley Returning in 2012: Barring a complete collapse, he will be back
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a hard team to figure out. Some weeks they look like they are a contender. This week they got blown out by the Houston Texans.
They have three winnable games after this week's trip to Green Bay.
Raheem Morris just needs to find a way to get a consistent effort out of his football team. That starts with Josh Freeman. He has struggled this year, and the team has struggled with him.
This has not been the follow-up to last year's 10-6 that Morris had hoped for, but there is no doubt he will be the team's coach in 2012.
Odds of Raheem Morris Returning in 2012: He will be back
19. Philadelphia Eagles
The nightmare season continues for the nightmare team. They lost to a bad Arizona team on Sunday to fall to 3-6.
This might finally be the last season for Andy Reid in Philadelphia. There is no doubt that he has done a great job in his time at the helm with the Eagles, but it looks like the message has grown stale. Do not be surprised to see the Eagles go in a different direction.
Odds of Andy Reid Returning in 2012: This is probably his last year in Philadelphia
18. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers lost a tough one to the Raiders in Week 10.
San Diego only has two games remaining against AFC West opponents. The rest of their six remaining games are against the Bears, Jaguars, Bills, Ravens and Lions. It is hard to see them winning more than two of those games.
Norv Turner is on a very hot seat in San Diego. There is no way he is back if they do not make the playoffs, and they are facing an uphill climb in their division. They are not getting in as a Wild Card, so it looks like this will be the end of Turner's tenure with the Chargers.
Odds of Norv Turner Returning in 2012: 75 percent chance he is out
17. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders got a big win over the Chargers to take control of the AFC West.
It is not going to take more than eight wins to win the division. The Raiders only need to find four more wins, and they have games left against the Vikings, Dolphins, Chiefs and Chargers. They look to be in good shape.
Hue Jackson has done a great job with this team, especially considering they have been without Darren McFadden for a couple of weeks. There is no doubt he has earned a contract extension when the year is over.
Odds of Hue Jackson Returning in 2012: No doubt he will be back
16. Tennessee Titans
The Titans got a good win over the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday.
The key for the Titans going forward is going to be consistency. They have had games where they looked like contenders, but they have also had games where they looked like one of the bottom teams in the league.
Mike Munchak has done pretty well in his first season with the team considering that he did not have an offseason to install his system. The Titans will give him a few years to completely install his program.
Odds of Mike Munchak Returning in 2012: 100 percent
15. New York Jets
It seems like the Jets take one step forward and two steps back. A week after beating the Bills they got blown out at home by the Patriots.
They have a game this week that looks like a good matchup on paper, but it will be interesting to see how they prepare for the option on a short week.
Rex Ryan set the bar really high for his team before the season started. They have not lived up to that, but there is no way they are thinking about replacing him.
Odds of Rex Ryan Returning in 2012: A stone-cold lock
14. Dallas Cowboys
Have the Cowboys finally gotten it together? Three weeks ago they were embarrassed by the Eagles, but this past week they dismantled the Buffalo Bills.
They have a really easy schedule the next three weeks, so they should be able to build up some momentum heading into a December 11th showdown with the Giants.
It is too early for Jerry Jones to give up on Jason Garrett, but you never know what Jerry is going to do. Garrett has made some key adjustments to the way he calls the game since DeMarco Murray burst onto the scene.
The Cowboys are 5-4 and will be favored in five of their last seven games. Winning all five will probably get them into the playoffs and save Garrett's job.
Odds of Jason Garrett Returning in 2012: 50/50 at this point
13. Cincinnati Bengals
The rest of the season will show us who the Bengals really are. They lost a close one to the Steelers this past weekend, but still have one game left against the Steelers and two with the Ravens.
Marvin Lewis appears to have resurrected his coaching career in Cincinnati that many thought was going to be over after last season. Drafting young studs like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green always helps.
It is hard to say what the Bengals' record will be when the season is over, but it looks Lewis will be their coach for a few more years.
Odds of Marvin Lewis Returning in 2012: It looks like a safe bet at this point
12. Detroit Lions
Things do not look as good in Detroit today as they did a month ago. The Lions are still a young, talented team, but they have lost three of their last four.
Part of the problem is that Matthew Stafford has a broken finger. He is going to try and play through it, but it looked to give him trouble on Sunday against the Bears.
With all of that being said, Jim Schwartz is the best thing to happen to the Lions since Barry Sanders. There is no way he is going anywhere anytime soon.
Odds of Jim Schwartz Returning in 2012: You can bet the mortgage on it
11. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are coming off their worst game of the season in Dallas Sunday.
The good news is they still have two games left against the Dolphins and one against the Broncos. Those games should all be pretty easy wins.
Chan Gailey was not a very popular hire when the Bills announced he was their choice, but it is hard to argue with the direction he has the team going. Even if they do not end up in the playoffs this season, he will be back next year to build on the success they have had.
Odds of Chan Gailey Returning in 2012: 100 percent
10. Chicago Bears
The Bears have won four in a row, and their next five games are very winnable. Right now it looks like they are going to be the team to challenge the Packers in the NFC North.
The Bears travel to Green Bay in Week 16. There is a really good chance they are 11-3 when that meeting takes place.
Lovie Smith has done a great job with this team, and will be in consideration for Coach of the Year if the Bears win out, which is a real possibility.
Odds of Lovie Smith Returning in 2012: All but certain
9. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are a mystery wrapped in an enigma. One week they look like they are one of the best teams in the league, but the next week they lose to the Seahawks.
Finding some consistency is going to be the key for them down the stretch, but it is hard to imagine them ending up anywhere but in the playoffs.
John Harbaugh has done a great job since taking over as the head coach in 2008. The team has never missed the playoffs with him at the helm. There is no shot they try to replace him anytime soon.
Odds of John Harbaugh Returning in 2012: 100 percent
8. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons lost a heartbreaker to the Saints on Sunday.
They have a really soft remaining schedule. The only team left on the schedule that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today other than the Saints is the Texans. The Texans do not look like nearly as tough of an opponent with the news today that Matt Schaub is out for the season.
Mike Smith has been one of the best coaches in the league over the last few years. The Falcons would be crazy to look in another direction anytime soon.
Odds of Mike Smith Returning in 2012: The only thing more certain is taxes
7. New England Patriots
The Patriots got back on track against the New York Jets in Week 10.
The biggest question with them remains their defense. The offense is going to be deadly as long as Tom Brady is calling the signals, but the defense has been a liability this season. They were better against the Jets. Have they turned the corner?
Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He does not have a lot of talent on defense this season, but he will have them playing well enough to win the AFC by the time the season is over.
Odds of Bill Belichick Returning in 2012: He will be the coach in New England as long as he wants to be
6. New York Giants
The Giants dropped a tough one in San Francisco on Sunday.
They have played very well this season, but they have a tough schedule in the second half.
Eli Manning will be the key. He has been really good so far, and they will need him to be equally as good down the stretch if they are going to win the NFC.
Tom Coughlin was on the hot seat a couple of years ago, but he has the Giants playing as well as just about anyone right now.
The key for him has been the adjustments he has made to his personality. Players do not hate playing for him anymore.
Odds of Tom Coughlin Returning in 2012: Pretty darn good
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers rebounded from a tough loss against the Ravens to get a huge win against the Bengals.
They finally get their bye week this week. They only have two tough games after the bye. Even with their two losses to the Ravens, they will probably end up winning the AFC North.
Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL. There are very few fans that would not trade the coach of their team for Tomlin.
Odds of Mike Tomlin Returning in 2012: No coach is safer in his job
4. Houston Texans
The Texans got another big win against the Buccaneers this week.
Of course the big question with them going forward is how will Matt Leinart play now that Matt Schaub is out for the season.
Gary Kubiak entered this season on the hot seat. It would seem that he is off of it now, but he might find his way back on that seat if they go in the tank for what would seem like the 20th straight season.
He probably would get a pass because of Schaub's injury, but you never know in the NFL.
Odds of Gary Kubiak Returning in 2012: 95 percent
3. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have bounced back from their loss to the Rams a few weeks ago with two straight wins. One of those wins came against their toughest competition in the NFC South.
New Orleans has two tough games after the bye against the Giants and Lions. A split in those will set them up nicely because their next two are against the Titans and Vikings before playing the Falcons again.
Sean Payton might be doing his best coaching job ever this season considering he is doing it on one leg!
In all seriousness, Payton has taken the Saints to a level that many thought was not ever possible. He is another coach that can keep his job as long as he wants it.
Odds of Sean Payton Returning in 2012: 100 percent
2. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers just keep on winning.
They are now 8-1 and still have five games left against NFC West teams. There is a really good chance that they end the season 14-2.
Jim Harbaugh is the Coach of the Year in the NFL. He should get that award for what he has done with Alex Smith alone. That does not even take into account all of the other good things he has done along the way to make the 49ers one of the best teams in the league.
Odds of Jim Harbaugh Returning in 2012: He could be elected mayor of San Francisco right now
1. Mike McCarthy
The Packers just keep rolling along.
They are going to have a few tough tests before it is over with two games against the Lions, one against the Giants and one against the Bears. Will they slip up? That is going to be the thing to watch for the rest of the season.
Mike McCarthy has a .636 winning percentage in the regular season since taking over as Packers head coach. His playoff winning percentage is even better at .714. Having the best quarterback in the league helps, but it is clear that McCarthy is an offensive genius.
Odds of Mike McCarthy Returning in 2012: One million percent