BCS Rankings: Which One-Loss Team Has Best Shot at Title Game?

It may seem odd to think about it, but we are less than a month away from knowing which two teams will be playing in the BCS National Championship Game.

In the meantime, much still has to be decided. Based on the latest BCS rankings (below), the title game would feature a matchup of two undefeateds in LSU and Oklahoma State. It is, however, entirely conceivable that a one-loss team could sneak its way into the title game.

Let's take a look at the four one-loss teams with the best shot at making the title game.

4. Oregon (No. 4)

Oregon did itself a monumental favor by beating Stanford on Saturday night, but the Ducks are not quite in control of their own destiny.

The key reason for this is that Oregon is fresh out of statement games. It wraps up at home against USC and Oregon State, and after that the Ducks will tackle the first ever Pac-12 Championship Game against whichever sub-par team the South division coughs up.

As such, the Ducks need help if they are to get into the title game. They're not going to get there on their own.

3. Arkansas (No. 6) 

The Hogs are being largely overlooked in the BCS race at the moment, but they're going to have a golden opportunity to make some noise in the final week of the regular season.

That's because the Hogs are going to play LSU. If they win, all hell is going to break loose. The Hogs would likely be the top one-loss team in the country, and they could even be No. 1 if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma to finish the regular season.

The weird part is that this wouldn't necessarily put Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game. The weirder part is that this probably wouldn't even matter.

The chips could arrange themselves in a multitude of different ways. But when the dust settles, I think an Arkansas win over LSU would mean a trip to the title game.

2. Alabama (No. 3)

Alabama isn't quite in control of its own BCS destiny, but it's pretty close. All the Tide need to do is win out, and then hope that either LSU or Oklahoma State loses.

If you're worried about teams leapfrogging Alabama in the BCS standings, that could very well happen given some of the matchups the Tide's competition is facing. However, Alabama will help its cause with a win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The voters don't think too highly of Auburn, but the computers like them well enough.

At the very least, Alabama is looking at a spot in the Sugar Bowl if it wins out. Not a bad consolation prize.

1. Oklahoma (No. 5)

As if you didn't already have enough incentive to watch the Bedlam game, this year's edition is essentially a play-in game for the BCS National Championship Game.

If the Pokes win, they're in. If the Sooners win, they're in.

It may seem like a bit much to take something like this for granted, but the computers absolutely love the Big 12, and they seem intent on getting a Big 12 team into the title game no matter what happens.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, expect them to jump all the way up to No. 2.

Or No. 1, depending on what happens with LSU. Either way, the Sooners will be in, and the loss to Texas Tech will be a moot point.

BCS Rankings for Week 12

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	.9933
2	Oklahoma State	.9642
3	Alabama	.9099
4	Oregon	.8755
5	Oklahoma	.8400
6	Arkansas	.7974
7	Clemson	.6935
8	Virginia Tech	.6755
9	Stanford	.6747
10	Boise State	.5959
11	Houston	.567
12	South Carolina	.528
13	Kansas State	.497
14	Georgia	.453
15	Michigan State	.439
16	Nebraska	.382
17	Wisconsin	.333
18	Michigan	.295
19	TCU	.252
20	Southern Mississippi	.245
21	Penn State	.230
22	Baylor	.136
23	Texas	.120
24	Auburn	.079
25	Florida State	.071