BCS Ranking Week 12: What Do Alabama, Oklahoma and Oregon Need for a Title Shot?

For those who support the BCS system, the solution is simple: If the LSU Tigers and the Oklahoma State Cowboys win out, they will play for the BCS national championship.

However, with the Stanford Cardinals and the Boise State Broncos losing this past week, the stakes just got higher. Now their appears to be three one-loss teams with at least an outside shot of making it to the championship game.

The problem with being a one-loss team is that you do not control your own destiny. You need help from the outside and with every added stipulation, your chances diminish.

As a result, I have listed a realistic way that any of these thee teams can make the championship game.

Oklahoma Sooners Have the Best Shot

For Oklahoma, the answer is simple—just win.  Some people believe that Alabama will make it to the championship game if the Sooners upset Oklahoma State. However, I disproved that theory in the article linked here.

Oklahoma has a favorable situation because of its quality wins. People will argue that its loss against Texas Tech is damning but its quality wins will overshadow that.  The first thing that the Sooners must do is beat Oklahoma State on the road.

However, if they did this they would be able to defeat the No. 2 team in the nation on the road—this will leave a strong impression in the minds of the voters.

They also need help from the outside, starting with Kansas State. The Wildcats have two games remaining in which they will face Texas and Iowa State. If the Wildcats win these two games, they will have a final record of 10-2. The Sooners defeated the Wildcats, 58-17, at Kansas State. This road win would help them in the computers.

Next, they need for Florida State to finish strong. The Seminoles have two remaining games against Virginia and Florida. The Seminoles will be favored in both games, and with two wins would finish the season 9-3. The Sooners defeated Florida State in Tallahassee.

This would give the Sooner three quality BCS wins on the road and the Big 12 championship.

Further helping the Sooners cause would be for Texas or Baylor to finish strong. However, neither is necessary.

The Orgeon Ducks Have a Slim Shot

The Oregon Ducks appeared to have forfeited any shot they had at a return to the national championship game in Week 1. Oregon was defeated handily by LSU, 40-27. Although the Tigers only won the game by 13 points, the game was not as close as the score would indicate.

Since that time, the Ducks have dominated every opponent they faced. Moreover, they defeated the previously undefeated Stanford Cardinal, 53-30, on the road this weekend.

Now the Ducks are back in the national championship hunt. They will, however, need plenty of help.

The first thing that must happen is the obvious—the Ducks need to win the rest of their games.

LSU will need to be defeated. While the Ducks could technically get into the championship game against LSU, the voters are unlikely to want to see a rematch of this game.

The second thing the Ducks will need to make it back to the BCS championship is a Georgia win. The best scenario for the Ducks is for Arkansas to defeat LSU and the Bulldogs to beat the representative from the West. However, just one of these two might be enough.

Getting an SEC team without a conference championship enhances Oregon’s chances greatly.

The more you look over the Big 12 conference, the more it appears they are going to get a participant into the championship game. They will have a difficult game this weekend against USC. The Trojans are currently 8-2 and have looked nothing short of scary in recent games. However, the game is at home, so that will help greatly.

The last game of the season will be against lowly Oregon State. The Beavers currently have an overall record of 2-8. The Ducks will then proceed to their conference championship. Unfortunately for Oregon, its opponent will not have a great record because USC is not eligible. The Ducks' best hope is that Arizona State wins out and at least gives them a decent opponent. Of course this can only happen if USC beats UCLA.

The Ducks are on the outside looking in, but an SEC championship game upset might be their greatest shot.

Alabama Crimson Tide Have the Lowest Odds

I hate when I have to be the voice of reason—however, Alabama has the smallest chance of making it to the championship game among the three one-loss teams. Its strength of schedule will take a dramatic hit over the next few weeks with games against Georgia Southern and Auburn.

For Alabama to make it to the BCS championship game, the Tide will need Oregon to lose. As I stated in a previous slide, a Big 12 team will make it to the championship. As a result, Alabama has to find a way to jump LSU.

The only way this happens is if Arkansas beats LSU and beats them handily. In this situation, both Arkansas and Alabama could jump LSU. This would give the Tide the tiebreaker and a trip to South Carolina. However, the Razorbacks would need a multiple-touchdown win. With the Tigers having wins against Alabama and Oregon, two teams jumping LSU seems unlikely.

The Tide will also need for Oregon to lose a game. While it could be argued that a one-loss Alabama team could finish higher than a one-loss Ducks team, it is not a guarantee. The Tide’s greatest shot at this would be if USC defeated them this week.

The voters are going to find it hard to put a one-loss Alabama team over a one-loss LSU team.

The Tide will also need Penn State to win out as well. This will be difficult because they have road games against Ohio State and Wisconsin remaining.  Two losses would drop Penn State to 8-4 and make the Tide’s win against the Nittany Lions much less impressive.

A lot of stars have to align for the Tide.  Scenarios not needed if they could have defended their home turf.