BCS Championship: If Oklahoma Beats Oklahoma State, Who Plays LSU?

Yesterday two more teams—Boise State and Stanford—fell from the ranks of the undefeated. That leaves three undefeated teams in the FBS—LSU, Oklahoma State and Houston.

Now, with the season winding to a close, the BCS championship is clearer than ever. LSU plays Oklahoma State for all the marbles.

But what happens if Oklahoma beats OSU on December 3? 

Here are the best arguments for and against each team, in alphabetical order. This, of course, assumes that LSU wins out, which is no guarantee, as LSU still has soon-to-be No. 6 or 7 Arkansas on their schedule and a Georgia team (presumably) in the SEC championship game that could be top 10 when they play. It also assumes the teams listed win out. 

Alabama

Alabama is widely considered—though not unanimously considered—to be the best one-loss team in the country. Their defense is the best in the country north of Baton Rouge. They have the best back in the nation, or at the very least, one of the three best (order Richardson with Montee Ball and LaMichael James however you want). 

Their only loss to LSU was a game they could have just as easily have won. Their only loss came in overtime on a field goal. That makes them the only team to even come within 13 points of LSU all season. 

The "undefeated in regulation" argument might sound silly, but Les Miles successfully used that to get his team to the National Championship game in 2006. 

Also, Alabama has the best average margin of victory of any of the one-loss teams. 

Against them is that they lost to LSU at home. Why would there be a different result in game on "neutral field" i.e. virtually walking distance from Death Valley.

Additionally, if you're a fan of defense, it was a great game. If you aren't, it was dull. There is not a lot of sentiment for Field Goal Bowl II. 

Houston

Houston would be the only undefeated team, but being realistic, they have no shot at the BCS title game. If Boise State wasn't going to get there, Houston can't even daydream about it.

They have an explosive offense, but everyone will remember Hawaii and Georgia a few years ago. Houston can hope to be a BCS buster now, but not the championship. 

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has fallen from the conversation since dropping a game inexplicably to Texas Tech, but a win over Oklahoma State would certainly vault them back into it. 

They are perceived to have the best balance of any of the teams. That makes them the most "complete" team.

They certainly have a better offense than Alabama with 45.4 points per game, and one nearly as good as Oregon's, who scores 45.4.

On the defensive side of the ball, though, they give up only 19.8 points per game, good for 18th in the country, compared to Oregon's 38th-ranked 23.3. In terms of yards they actually average more than Oregon. 

Another often overlooked factor is that in their loss Oklahoma was missing seven starters. Additionally it was what you can refer to as a "trap" game, where they were facing then undefeated Kansas State the following week. Texas Tech was not Oklahoma at it's best. The other two teams in their losses to LSU were fully expecting a challenge and were much closer to their best in their losses. 

According to the computers, their strength of schedule is harder than either Alabama's or Oregon's. A win over Oklahoma State would give them four wins over teams that were ranked in the top 11. They would also have the best win with a win over No. 2 Oklahoma State. 

Probably the best argument of all, though, is that of the three teams, they are the only ones whose loss didn't come to LSU. The other two teams had their shot, and they failed. Alabama had their shot at home. Oregon had their shot on a technically neutral field and lost. Now it's Oklahoma's turn. 

Oregon

The Oregon fans are going to argue that their only loss came in the first week of the season, and they are a better team now than they were then. Since that loss to LSU, no one has come with 15 points of Oregon. 

With back-to-back wins over Stanford and this coming week over USC, Oregon could hold the argument as "best team right now." 

They could also argue that they have the best offense of the teams, averaging the most points per game, and that this would make for the best game of "offense versus defense." 

They could also argue that while they did lose to LSU, they actually out-gained the Tigers, They could say that the win was due more to the four turnovers and that next time the results could easily be different. There will also be arguments that they weren't at full strength in the previous meeting. 

Finally, they'll argue that the "neutral field" was only technically neutral, but LSU is a lot closer to Dallas than Oregon is. 

Working against them is that they did play previously, and they did turn the ball over four times.

Saying "if they hadn't had those turnovers" is like saying, "If they hadn't let LSU score those four touchdowns." The fact is they did give up those turnovers. They did have their chance and they did get beaten soundly on a neutral field.

New Orleans, they will add, is going to be just as "technically neutral" as Dallas. 

Decision

My opinion is that, while I think that Alabama and Oregon would probably both beat Oklahoma on a neutral field, Oklahoma has the best argument in that they didn't lose to LSU yet.

Their lone loss was in a trap game. Oregon and Alabama both brought their best and failed. I would say Oklahoma deserves their shot. 

Of course, that requires they beat Oklahoma State first. My guess is that the BCS game will be featuring a team from Oklahoma, though.