Nick Saban: Why He Will Not Win Another National Championship at Alabama

When Nick Saban took over a mediocre Alabama program, many of the nation's top college football experts believed he would return the Crimson Tide to its rightful place as a national powerhouse.

Saban showed glimpses of what was to come in his first season with impressive wins over Arkansas and Tennessee. Alabama lost six games in 2007, including an embarrassing loss to Louisiana Monroe, but no loss was by more than a touchdown.

In 2008 the Crimson Tide stormed back to prominence with a 12-0 regular season. They were one quarter away from playing in the National Championship Game. In 2009 the Crimson Tide had an undefeated championship season and its first Heisman trophy winner. Many believe it was the start of one of college football's greatest dynasties.

Last year Alabama jumped out to a 5-0 start with blowout wins over highly ranked Penn State and Florida teams. The Crimson Tide also had a gritty comeback win after trailing 20-7 late in Fayetteville against a Top-10 Arkansas team.

Then Alabama went into Columbia, South Carolina and had their tail whipped by the 19th-ranked Gamecocks. Alabama rebounded and was ranked fifth in the country in time for their next big game against one-loss LSU. A win would have put Alabama in a great position for another title run, but instead Alabama gave up over 400 yards in the second half and LSU busted Bama's dreams 24-21. One time fan-and-pundit punching bag Les Miles flat out out-coached Nick Saban.

Alabama went on to blow a 24-0 second quarter lead to No. 2 Auburn in the Iron Bowl to end a 20-game home winning streak. Alabama responded well with a 49-7 win over Big 10 Co-champion Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, and many thought Saban would win another championship in 2011.

This year's Alabama team has one of the best defenses in college football history. They faced another team that matches up to that same category in a game of the century Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Alabama had the better team on offense and defense, but special teams proved the difference as No. 1 LSU beat No. 2 Alabama 9-6 in overtime.

Special teams is not the only area that LSU leads Alabama in, however. The Tigers have the better coach. Les Miles, who I previously criticized at every possible opportunity, has surpassed his predecessor. Miles has out-coached Saban the last two years, knocking him out of the Championship race, unless something crazy happened, each time.

Saban has had the most talented team in college football the last two seasons. Last year he managed to coach them to three losses. This year he coached them to a loss against the only team in the country even close to good enough to beat his team under any circumstance.

Saban is not God, as some delusional Alabama fans will still continue to believe. He's a great coach capable of winning a championship any year as long as he stays at Alabama. The problem is that you don't always achieve what you are capable of.

Next year LSU will be a heavy favorite to win the National Championship. The superstar team in Baton Rouge is still young. Alabama will lose at least seven starters to graduation, with the possibility of as many as six more leaving early to go to the NFL.

Alabama's 2012 schedule features its toughest challenges away from home. Nick Saban is under contract at Alabama through 2017. Reasonably he would have from 2013-2017 to regain his edge and win another championship if he wishes to stay that long. Unfortunately, I don't see Nick Saban coaching until he is 66. I would expect Saban to leave after the 2014 season or so.

The big question is how driven will Saban be to win another championship.

We know about his plans to retire at some point and retire to a life of relaxation on the lake. After Alabama suffers a frustrating rebuilding year in 2012 that may feature as many as three or four losses, will Saban really want to pound out another five seasons to add to a legacy that already has him as an all-time great? I don't believe so. When Alabama rebuilds in 2012 and has a couple more close-but-no cigar years in 2013 and 2014 I think it will be all she wrote for the Sabanator.

I could be wrong, but as I see it, Saban's best chance of winning another National Championship may be this season, and it will take a lot for Alabama to get a rematch with LSU. I still believe Alabama has the best team, but as Saban has proven the last couple of seasons, the best team doesn't always win.