Bowl Projections 2012: Pac-12: Does Stanford Deserve a BCS Title Shot?

Stanford against Oregon. The big game, the only previously-scheduled game standing in Stanford's way of a Rose Bowl berth.

The Cardinal have risen from the 41-point, 1-11 underdogs somehow beating No. 1 USC to the No. 4 team, searching for the red carpet in Pasadena.

If Oregon takes down Stanford on the road and they defeat USC or Oregon State at Autzen Stadium, the Ducks would host the 1st annual Pac-12 championship game. Both teams control their destiny. 

The last team standing in the Pac-12 North will likely face Arizona State or UCLA, and if those two collapse, Utah. After a shocking win over Arizona State, the Bruins control their destiny to the Rose Bowl, shocking for a 5-4 team.

The Pac-12 has underwent surprises, twists and turns in its first year. Just ask any member of the Pac-12 South. But where do these teams stand in the national picture?

Let's find out.

Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State, USC, Washington State

The Wildcats, Buffaloes, Beavers and Cougars have struggled all year long, while violations will hold the 7-2 Trojans out of a bowl game. Colorado hasn't won a single conference game in its first season, and other than a blowout win over UCLA, Arizona hasn't gotten anything going.

Oregon State couldn't beat Sacramento State and other than two easy wins, they have fallen into the cellar of the conference, unable to climb out of the hole and reach a bowl game.

Washington State is playing like, well, Washington State. and although they have managed three wins, they must beat Arizona State, Utah and Washington to become bowl-eligible.

These teams are more interested in recruiting than finishing the season, and they leave it to the remaining seven teams to battle for the Pac-12 crown.

Pac-12 North: Stanford

Stanford and Oregon. Oregon and Stanford.

Andrew Luck and the Cardinal control their destiny. Chances are high the Cardinal make the BCS Title Game. 13 wins should do the trick, and if not, a Rose Bowl bid (with 13 wins) is in the books.

If Luck can work his magic, the defense can do the trick and Stephan Taylor can keep running, Stanford looks like an juggernaut no one wants to attempt to stop. Not even the Ducks.

So, as long as they keep riding Luck, and luck, Stanford is looking good. Oregon has looked sloppy at times and Stanford's defense can contain flocks of high-scoring offenses. The path to the Coaches' Trophy is looking clearer than ever for the Cardinal.

As long as Stanford hurdles Oregon, they should be in a BCS bowl. While no one knows exactly what will happen, this is pretty clear.

Bowl Projection: BCS Title Game, Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

Pac-12 North: Oregon

Not even the quick, explosive Ducks can stop Stanford.

At least, that's what the so-called experts (and me) think. The Ducks struggled badly in a loss to LSU, and while Oregon has rebounded to 8-1 and 6-0 in conference play, they have to fight hard to make it to a BCS bowl.

If the Ducks fight off Stanford, the path to the BCS looks very, very clear for Oregon. If not, convincing wins over USC and Oregon State can punch a ticket for the Ducks. Right now, that's all they care about.

An at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl or Fiesta Bowl is always better than playing in the Holiday Bowl, a spot slated for Washington or Utah. Revenue will likely welcome two-loss Oregon, but you can never predict the BCS.

Sure, Oregon is explosive, feisty and talented, but if they don't pick up the pace, nobody will see the Ducks as a big contender for a while. Nobody could stop them last year, and now, the Cardinal have found a way.

Bowl Projection: Sugar Bowl, Oregon vs. Clemson

Pac-12 South: Arizona State

The Sun Devils have a pretty firm grip on a bowl bid, but their tough loss to UCLA leaves the Bruins in the driver's seat to the conference championship.

To ASU's advantage, the Bruins have to play Utah and USC away from home, while the 6-3 Sun Devils have a favorable schedule. Everyone saw the Devils as a contender, and they have lived up to those expectations.

Brock Osweiler is developing, Cameron Marshall is running and Vontaze Burfict is leading a strong D. While UCLA is in control of the conference (Pac-12 South), Arizona State has the edge.

Most people see Arizona State and Stanford meeting on a bright Friday night in Palo Alto, fighting for a ticket to Pasadena. Right now, the Sun Devils are putting work in and praying for Utah and USC.

If the Sun Devils do make the Pac-12 Championship Game, they have a guaranteed berth to the Alamo Bowl, where the second-place team goes. I don't see ASU pulling the upset over Stanford, but the Alamo Bowl is a realistic goal. 

Bowl Projection: Alamo Bowl, Arizona State vs. Kansas State

Pac-12 North: Washington

Washington rode under the radar, flying through an easy schedule to a ranking early in the year. Now, after losses to Oregon and Stanford, the Huskies are just that team, looking to make the Holiday Bowl.

You can't say Keith Price hasn't done his job. His Huskies are looking better than any of Jake Locker's teams ever did, at 6-3, and they have two cupcakes left, leaving an 8-4 or 9-3 season a legit possibility.

The Huskies have had their struggles, but a 6-3 record is far from bad. Now, as long as the Huskies don't fall victim to upsets, fourth place is in sight. Seriously.

Now, this question arises: Is Keith Price a better quarterback than Jake Locker? Locker needed miracles and luck to win six games in one season. Keith Price is 7-3 when he gets a fair share of playing time.

Either way, the Huskies are winning, and they are becoming a team that teams don't want to see on their calendar.

Bowl Projection: Holiday Bowl, Washington vs. Baylor 

Pac-12 South: Utah

The Utes were showing people that the MWC and WAC were weaker than they seemed, starting 0-4 in Pac-12 play. Then, Jon Hayes found his rhythm.

Utah beat Oregon State, and a Pac-12 win was in the books. Then, Arizona fell victim to the Utes, and Utah slowly rose from the depths of the Pac-12 cellar.

Now, with wins over UCLA, Washington State and Colorado, the Utes can finish 5-4 in their inaugural season (Pac-12 play), and a Sun Bowl, or even a Holiday Bowl, is in sight.

John White is a good running back. Jon Hayes is developing into a quarterback. And the Utes can build on this season for next year, and develop into a real contender.

Right now, all they want is the Sun Bowl, and a victory. Next year, the Rose Bowl.

Bowl Projection: Sun Bowl, Utah vs. Georgia Tech

Pac-12 South: UCLA

Let me pose a difficult question to you: When was the last time a four-loss team controlled their own destiny to the Rose Bowl?

The answer—I don't know. But the Bruins are in control, and if they beat Utah, Colorado and USC, they will travel to Palo Alto or Eugene to face Stanford or Oregon.

Even when Rick Neuheisel's club was 3-4, they controlled their own destiny. Now, Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman (running backs) are leading the balanced Bruins, coming off of two big wins.

Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut aren't stars, but they are playing well enough at quarterback, and with a big target like Nelson Rosario, who made a big catch that led to the win over Arizona State, it isn't as hard.

While the Bruins must overcome obstacles to make the Pac-12 Title, they have a legit shot, and if not, a  Las Vegas Bowl bid seems like a likely case.

Bowl Projection: Las Vegas Bowl, UCLA vs. TCU

Pac-12 North: California

The Golden Bears had national attention, and they were up there as a Rose Bowl contender for five years. Now, the Bears are looking to get that national attention back.

Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones are two of the most dynamic players in the country. Isi Sofele is one of the many great halfbacks Jeff Tedford has produced. Zach Maynard has the talent to develop into the next big thing.

Yet California still lacks a big threat, and their 5-4 record proves that. Cal couldn't get close to beating Oregon, USC or even UCLA. The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl has their eyes fixed on the Bears.

Zach Maynard has looked good in his last two home starts, and the same type of performance will be needed to put Cal over the top on Saturday, becoming bowl-eligible with a win over Oregon State.

Cal went from eyeing the Rose Bowl to the Holiday Bowl to the Sun Bowl to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The Bears have sunk, but a game against a quality ACC team won't do much to keep them falling.

Bowl Projection: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, California vs. Virginia