Alabama vs LSU: Offense, Defense and George Wallace by the Numbers

Since the beginning of the season, college football pundits have exalted Alabama and LSU’s defenses as two of the best in the nation, if not the decade. Both are stocked with future NFL talent. Both feature playmakers like Dont’a Hightower and Tyrann Mathieu. Both rank as elite in every significant statistical category.

Alabama has the best scoring defense in the SEC—and country—allowing an average of less than a touchdown per game. LSU is No. 2 in the conference, giving up 11.5 points on average.

Arkansas “hung” 14 points on Alabama, the most any team has scored on the Tide all year. LSU gave up 27 to Oregon in the opener and 21 to West Virginia in Week 4, the two highest point totals they’ve given up this year, to two incendiary offenses.

Alabama also leads both the conference and nation in total defense; LSU is second in the SEC and fourth in the country.

With two stout defenses, the game’s outcome may hinge on which offense can exert its force on the opposing defense like the National Guard on George Wallace—or at least like Jimmy Carter on George Wallace.

Both offenses lean on the running game—hard. Alabama has been a little better at it, running for 229 yards per game behind Heisman front-runner Trent Richardson and his 17 touchdowns and hard-running backup Eddie Lacy, who averages eight yards per carry.

Spencer Ware leads the Tigers’ rushing attack that averages 189 yards per game. Ware should be in high spirits just for getting back on the field after two weeks, first for being suspended one game for smoking synthetic marijuana and then for LSU’s bye last week.

And LSU has depth beyond first string at running back, which seems to be their norm in recent years. Backups Michael Ford and Alfred Blue have combined for 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson can also tuck it and run when he gets in the game.

For Alabama fans, quarterback A.J. McCarron’s playmaking ability has come as a pleasant surprise. He’s completing 67 percent of his passes and has thrown 10 touchdowns to eight different players with only three interceptions. He’s evolved into more than just a game manager in his first year as a starter and has made the throws he’s needed to when defenses have loaded up on the run to try to slow Richardson.

That Alabama features a formidable ground attack surprises no one, but McCarron’s play is the main reason that he leads the No. 1 offense in the SEC going into Week 10.

Jarrett Lee has thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception for LSU, but he also leads the dismally ranked 99th passing offense in the country. Most of the passing game production has come by way of 6’4” wide receiver Rueben Randle and his team-leading 33 catches and seven touchdowns.

If the Tide’s secondary—especially tall corner Dre Kirkpatrick—can neutralize Randle, defensive coordinator Kirby Smart will be able to stack the box against LSU’s run game.

If LSU is forced to throw, look for Hightower and Courtney Upshaw and Alabama’s talented defensive line to attack whichever one of LSU’s quarterbacks is in the game with a lot of tenacity.

The offensive numbers probably suggest a slight edge for the Crimson Tide. But stats are for losers. The offense that can stitch together an adequate three-plus hour performance against a ravenous opposing defense will earn the win Saturday night in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Unless Honey Badger scores three defensive touchdowns, in which case the above analysis will be about as relevant as a George Wallace presidential run.