NFL Picks Week 9: Bills and Cowboys Are Top Home Favorites to Jump on

Week 9 features two home favorites that jump off the page as must-play situations. Due to multiple circumstances and trends, consider these two bets:

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills -1

The Bills are a pick ‘em at home against the Jets? 

This just in: the Jets are terrible in three of the four major categories of an offense and defense.

Mark Sanchez has really struggled in his third year as QB, leading his team to a mere 207 passing yards a game, 22^nd in the league.

The running game is even worse, gaining an average of 92 yards on the round (28^th in the league). The ground-and-pound mentality is a complete myth in 2011 and it has created a horrific offense with no balance.

The pass defense is ranked seventh in the league due to two great corners, but is 25^th against the rush (127 yards a game).

The Bills average over 30 points a game and have forced 18 turnovers in seven games. Expect Sanchez to get flustered in the pocket and the opportunistic Bills defense will take full advantage.

Remember: The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at home on the year.

Key Trends:

Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games in November.

Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Prediction: Bills 26, Jets 20

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys -11.5

The Cowboys may not play very well against high-quality teams, but they pummeled the Rams 34-7 in their only game against a team not in playoff contention.

DeMarco Murray is a budding star, as he adds some balance to a team that desperately needs it. Tony Romo is a lighting rod for criticism, especially after last week’s stink bomb against the Eagles, yet time-and-time again he’s been able to bounce-back.

The Seahawks were just blown out at home by an overachieving Bengals squad and are forced to play an injured Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback simply because backup Charlie Whitehurst was so bad.

They have the second worst running game in the league and are merely an average defensive team.

This should be a blowout by halftime.

Key Trends:

Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Cowboys are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Seahawks 13