2011 Breeders Cup Draw: Does Havre De Grace Have What It Takes to Beat Uncle Mo?

Havre de Grace has won three Grade 1 races and two Grade 3 races this year, and her only defeat came by a nose to Blind Luck in the July 16 Delaware Handicap.

Despite all of this, Havre de Grace is not the favorite in Nov. 5's Breeders' Cup Classic.

However, Uncle Mo, who hasn't raced in six months after being diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection and a rare liver disease, is the favorite.

Uncle Mo was the favorite at the Kentucky Derby before going down with the infection, returning on Oct. 1 to win at Grade 2 Kelso. His latest win had people buzzing, clocked in at 1:33.82 on a muddy mile at Belmont Park.

Both horses are in the running for Horse of the Year.

So, is Havre de Grace on an inside track to steal the Classic away from Uncle Mo?

Well, that depends on how Havre de Grace does on the outside of the track.

You see, Havre de Grace's worst loss in the last two years actually came at Churchill Downs. On top of this, the thoroughbred is situated at Pole No. 10, on the outside of the track, which was the same situation she found herself in before her loss.

Being on the outside of the track works against Havre de Grace's strengths and potentially forces her off the early pace. This isn't ideal because Havre de Grace works best racing among the leaders early on and using her never-ending motor to eventually pull ahead. She doesn't have the burst to make up great distances.

That is the biggest concern I have for Havre de Grace. Her determination always keeps her in the race, but if she falls backs, will she be able to burst back and capture the victory over such worthy contenders as Uncle Mo, Flat Out, Game On Dude and So You Think?

Havre de Grace's biggest challenge will be working inside early on and ensuring she doesn't fall behind.

In the end, I see Uncle Mo being too much for her.