Breeders Cup 2011: Don't Expect Another Miracle Victory from Ruler On Ice

Horse racing is a sport that is lucky to get more than a couple of national storylines each and every year. In 2011, one of the more intriguing national storylines was of the rubber match between Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford at the Belmont Stakes.

As it turned out, the third leg of the Triple Crown was stolen by Ruler On Ice, a 24-1 longshot.

To say that nobody saw a victory from Ruler On Ice coming would be an understatement. He hadn't won a race in three tries heading into the Belmont Stakes and he had a reputation for strange behavior.

One win on a muddy track at Elmont Park later, and all that was water under the bridge.

Sort of, anyway. Ruler On Ice hasn't won in three races since the Belmont Stakes, and he's more or less back to being a longshot again heading into Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic. At last check, Bodog had his odds of winning the Classic's $5 million purse at 20/1.

And it's easy to see why. While it's not exactly a positive sign that Ruler On Ice is winless since the Belmont Stakes, the more troubling thing is that each of those three races was on the longer side.

In late July, Ruler On Ice raced in the one and 1/8-mile Haskell Invitational and finished third behind Coil and Shackleford. A couple weeks later at the mile and a quarter Travers Stakes, Ruler On Ice finished fourth. In September, he finished second in the Pennsylvania Derby, a race equal in distance to the Haskell Invitational.

The Breeders' Cup Classic is a mile and a quarter race. Given how Ruler On Ice has fared in three straight longer races, you obviously have to be skeptical about his chances.

True, Ruler On Ice does have the Belmont Stakes win to his credit, which is significant because it's a mile and a half race. However, it is worth noting that Animal Kingdom and Shackleford, the two favorites in the race, were virtually non-factors. This is not a knock on Ruler On Ice, but it is something that has to make you wonder whether or not his win at Elmont Park was a fluke.

If so, Ruler On Ice certainly wouldn't be the first fluke winner in a Triple Crown race. He won't be the last, either.

So if you pick Ruler On Ice to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, you're essentially gambling on the notion that he isn't a fluke.

Your call.