MLB: 10 Pitchers Who Will Ascend to Ace Status

With Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander virtual locks to win their respective awards (NL Cy Young/AL Cy Young, maybe even MVP) by virtue of winning the pitching triple crown in their respective leagues, there is little debate as to who the best pitchers in the league were last season.

Prior to last season, though, you may have been hard-pressed to find people who predicted that Verlander and Kershaw would perform as well as they did.

Looking ahead to 2012, I have assembled a list of 10 pitchers, five from each league, that I believe have the best chance of ascending to “ace” status. Please note: my categorization of “ace” is fairly liberal.

For the purposes of this article, pitchers such as C.J. Wilson, David Price and Matt Cain already meet my qualifications for “ace.” Therefore, you will notice a prevalence of young arms in this ranking. 

Madison Bumgarner: San Francisco Giants

2011:     13-13, 3.21 ERA, 204.2 IP, 191 K, 1.212 WHIP

Madison Bumgarner pitches for the already-pitching-stacked San Francisco Giants. Of all the pitchers on this list, I would say that Bumgarner is the most likely pitcher to ultimately establish himself as an ace. Not only did he help lead his team to a World Championship in 2010 at the tender age of 21, but he rebounded from a disastrous start to 2011 (0-6) to finish .500.

If one were to remove one particularly hideous start against the Minnesota Twins last season, wherein he gave up eight runs in one-third of an inning, Bumgarner’s numbers would rank even higher. Bumgarner will enjoy the benefit of low rank next season as well; Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain will start off 1-2 for the Giants, and feel-good-story turned team-leader-in-ERA Ryan Vogelsong may even get the edge over Bumgarner.

Watching Bumgarner face off against other teams’ No. 4 starters should make for some mismatches, and I fully expect Bumgarner to finish high in the Cy Young voting next season. 

Ivan Nova: New York Yankees

2011:     16-4, 3.70 ERA, 164.1 IP, 98 K, 1.331 WHIP

Ah, the benefit of pitching for the Yankees. Ivan Nova’s numbers don’t jump off the page. Less than 100 strikeouts, a WHIP well above 1.250, significantly under 200 innings pitched and a relatively good earned run average…but 16 wins and only four losses.

Say what you will about new-fangled statistics, but I still believe that win-loss record says at least something about the mindset of a pitcher. Any pitcher that can go out and keep his team competitive every game, outdueling his opponent whether it is Roy Halladay or a recent Triple-A call-up, game in and game out? Granted, a pitcher cannot control run support. But he can control how he works with what he’s given.

To be fair, Nova was given a lot. An awful lot. But he made it count. And that’s what aces do. Just ask Andy Pettitte. 

Jair Jurrjens: Atlanta Braves

2011:     13-6, 2.96 ERA, 152.0 IP, 90 K, 1.224 WHIP

Last July, I watched some no-name (or at least peculiarly-named) right-handed pitcher for the Atlanta Braves throw a one-hit shutout against the Baltimore Orioles. I was perplexed by what I had seen. This pitcher, who at that time had an 11-3 record and minuscule 1.89 ERA, didn’t seem to have “great stuff.” His control was strong, but it was not exactly Madduxian (a new word).

Then I listened to a couple of TV analysts talk about this pitcher (Jair Jurrjens, obviously). They talked about his fielding-independent ERA, and they talked about the inordinately high number of balls-in-play that did not result in a hit. They speculated that “The Fall of Jurrjens” was imminent.

Well, they were right, in a sense. Jurrjens got injured and missed significant time, yet he finished out the season at a terrific 13-6 with a glowing 2.96 ERA. I watched a few more of his starts and realized that the TV analysts were wrong in their assessment. Jurrjens pitches to soft contact. Just as Willie Keeler said regarding batting (hit ‘em where they ain’t), the same can be said about pitchers (pitch ‘em to make ‘em hit ‘em where they are).

Don’t believe me? Ask Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer about their thoughts on the subject. 

Matt Moore: Tampa Bay Rays

2011:     1-0, 2.89 ERA, 9.1 IP, 15 K, 1.286 WHIP

What’s not to like about Matt Moore? To be honest with you, when I heard about Matt Moore throwing balls in Florida, I immediately thought of the Miami Dolphins quarterback of the same name. Then I watched his first career start. He was phenomenal.

Then I, like many of you wonderful readers out there, watched his masterpiece against the Texas Rangers in the first game of the ALDS between Texas and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Matt Moore will emerge as an ace next season for a few reasons. First, he has extremely high-octane “stuff.” Fifteen strikeouts in only nine innings is a mighty small sample size, but considering his stuff and his size and (very importantly) his left-handed delivery, one might call him Cliff Lee with better raw pitches.

It may take him several years to become the type of pitcher Cliff Lee is, but I can see Matt Moore competing with David Price, James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson next season to give Tampa Bay the premiere pitching staff in the American League. 

Vance Worley: Philadelphia Phillies

2011:     11-3, 3.01 ERA, 131.2 IP, 119K, 1.230 WHIP

As if the Philadelphia Phillies needed another spectacular starting pitcher, their record-setting season was bolstered by the call-up of Vance Worley. “Vanimal” definitely struggled a bit down the stretch with a mortal 2-2/4.05 month of September, but before that, he was highly invincible.

Worley, much like many of the other candidates for “acehood” on this list, will likely be given the opportunity to shine as he pitches towards the bottom of an incredibly talented rotation. The benefit is twofold: Not only will Worley have time, should he choose, to learn his craft from Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and (presumably) Cole Hamels, but he will also regularly be matched up against teams’ No. 4 starters.

I predict Worley’s offseason conditioning will improve dramatically given his late-season falloff, so look for his 2012 strikeout totals to rise and the other numbers to remain more or less a season-long prorated version of his 2011 numbers. 

Derek Holland: Texas Rangers

2011:     16-5, 3.95 ERA, 198 IP, 162 K, 1.354 WHIP

Derek Holland, like Ivan Nova, was often the beneficiary of outstanding run support. Holland’s numbers are actually a bit mystifying; his win-loss record is terrific, but his WHIP comparatively unremarkable. The fact that four of Holland’s victories have been shutouts is even more bewildering.

2011 Shutout Games:     4-0, 0.00 ERA, 36 IP, 25 K, 0.639 WHIP

2011 Non-Shutouts:        12-5, 4.83 ERA, 162 IP, 137 K, 1.512 WHIP

Look at that contrast! When Derek Holland did not throw a shutout, he wasn’t just mediocre. He was bad. Even so, there is a whole lot to like about the kid. I don’t think that the Texas Rangers are going to be going back to the World Series any time soon. But because of Derek Holland, they may be able to get back to the playoffs. 

Johnny Cueto: Cincinnati Reds

2011:     9-5, 2.31 ERA, 156 IP, 104 K, 1.090 WHIP

If Johnny Cueto could pitch for an entire season (in other words “stay healthy”) and replicate his 2011 numbers, he would be a leading Cy Young contender. Cueto, only 25 years old, had easily his best season in the majors last year, pitching extremely well for the underperforming Cincinnati Reds.

There is plenty of upside to Cueto, and at no point in 2011 was this fact more apparent than his dominating three-hit shutout against the (admittedly anemic) San Francisco Giants in late July. The only thing working against Cueto is that he will likely be slated high in the Cincinnati rotation next season.

Does Cueto have the stuff to compete with other No. 1 starters like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw? Yes. Will he put together an entire season that demonstrates this fact? My guess would be yes. 

Gio Gonzalez: Oakland Athletics

2011:     16-12, 3.12 ERA, 202 IP, 197 K, 1.317 WHIP

There are only two things that prevent Gio Gonzalez from being a leading contender for the 2012 Cy Young Award. The first is Justin Verlander. The second is walks.

Gonzalez’ WHIP does not seem that impressive. The catch, however, is that in his 202 innings, he surrendered only 175 hits for an excellent 7.8 H/9 rate. The problem? Gio Gonzalez led all major league pitchers in walks with 91.

If Gonzalez can lower his extremely high walk total, there will be very little preventing him from rising to the level of “ace.” The fact that he managed to win 16 games for the offensively-impotent Oakland Athletics is evidence enough of his skill as a pitcher. Turning the corner on walks will likely result in even more wins, a substantially lower ERA, even more innings and an awful lot of Cy Young Award votes. 

Anibal Sanchez: Florida Marlins

2011:  8-9, 3.67 ERA, 196.1 IP, 202 K, 1.278 WHIP

I almost feel like I should give up on Anibal Sanchez. Like many of you wonderful readers, I vividly remember his no-hitter in 2006 (his rookie season) which ended a very long MLB no-hitter drought. It wasn’t until 2010, however, that Sanchez even put together a complete season.

The problem with Sanchez is that he remains a wild card. Like most National League pitchers on this list, he threw a shutout against the San Francisco Giants last season. He also threw a one-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He averaged over a strikeout per inning over an entire season and finished with over 200 Ks.

But he also had five starts wherein he surrendered five or more runs. Nobody knows how the new Miami Marlins ballpark is going to play yet. Sanchez will likely pitch behind a (hopefully) healthy Josh Johnson next season, and I suspect that 2012 will be the year he puts it all together and gets nationally recognized as an ace. 

Jason Vargas: Seattle Mariners

2011:  10-13, 4.25 ERA, 201 IP, 131 K, 1.313 WHIP

I am already anticipating the comment-section heckling for this selection. Jason Vargas threw three shutouts last season and yet to “come of age”, which factors in heavily to his selection. Plus, I wanted to give all the fine Seattle Mariners fans out there a glimmer of hope for their future.

Vargas, much like Anibal Sanchez, is a bit of a wild card. In 32 starts in 2011, Vargas threw 17 quality starts. A quick glance over his game log reveals that most of those “quality starts” were highly legitimate; only one or two was of the cookie-cutter “6IP-3ER” variety. The remaining 15 starts, however, were generally disastrous.

On NINE separate occasions, Jason Vargas gave up five or more runs. Yet, his ERA was only 4.25. Seattle is working with a true Jekyll-and-Hyde case. If Vargas can turn it around and pitch like he did in those quality starts, his numbers will skyrocket. Winning 10 games with the Seattle Mariners is no small feat. But with consistency, Vargas could win 20. I'm serious.