2011 Breeders' Cup: Breaking Down Odds For Every Horse
This Friday, the Breeders' Cup World Championships take center stage in the thoroughbred racing world.
$25.5 Million will be awarded throughout 15 races in two days at horse racing's pinnacle event.
But it's not only about the money.
Historically, many of the year-end awards have been decided here.
It makes me remember the famous catchphrase from iconic wrestler Ric Flair: "To be the man, you gotta beat the man!"
For the horses, it would be: "To be the best, you gotta beat the best!"
I have 1-1 odds on the Breeders' Cup providing a great show—it never fails to deliver.
If you are a fan of horse racing, you will have the same odds on the possibility you will watch it both days.
Breeders' Cup races produce some big payoffs. The racing level is high, and the chances of a horse having his best race and producing a surprise are high as well.
So whether you are looking for long shots or a high-paying favorite, take a look at the odds. Let's consider the contenders for every race and the Morning Line odds.
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint (Ungraded)
1 of 15Post Time: November 4 at 4:10pm
Distance: Six Furlongs
Purse: $500,000
2010 Winner: Inaugural running
Being that this is the first running of this race in the Breeders' Cup, there is no historical data that could be useful in determining how it will unfold.
As a sprint race, you will see many horses with the ability to go to the lead and wire the field.
Or a feisty one that could do battle and sustain his lead at the finish.
Stalkers are always a good bet, since the race should have plenty of front-runners. They can just sit and make their move.
One thing is sure—you rarely will see a horse come from the back to win.
With two-year-olds running, improvement could happen from one race to the next, making it even more difficult to pick a winner.
Bob Baffert's Secret Circle is the favorite and rightfully so. A possible surprise here, Holdin Bullets.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Seeker | 6-1 |
| 2 | Sum of the Parts | 15-1 |
| 3 | Blacky The Bull | 10-1 |
| 4 | Trinninberg | 10-1 |
| 5 | Shumoos | 20-1 |
| 6 | Secret Circle | 4-5 |
| 7 | Holdin Bullets | 8-1 |
| 8 | Jake Mo | 20-1 |
| 9 | Vexor | 6-1 |
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2)
2 of 15Post Time: November 4 at 4:50pm
Distance: One Mile
Purse: $1 Million
2010 Winner: More Than Real
Another race for two-year-olds. That means anything can happen and most likely will.
Being that this is a turf race, the trip is of the utmost importance here.
Look for post positions and the best jockeys, as they will be the key for their horses.
Take last year, for example—Garrett Gomez and his excellent ride of More Than Real. They were clear on the outside the whole way, while Winter Memories was botched up inside and had nothing down the stretch.
The average payoff for this race has been $11.50, and the one horse around that is Somali Lemonade.
The favorite is Elusive Kate, who has won four straight. She ships from Europe and deservedly gets all the attention here.
Lookout for Somali Lemonade in the stretch, she will close fast..
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | My Gi Gi | 20-1 |
| 2 | Dayatthespa | 12-1 |
| 3 | Up | 30-1 |
| 4 | Stopshoppingmaria | 6-1 |
| 5 | Stephanie's Kitten | 10-1 |
| 6 | Sweet Cat | 5-1 |
| 7 | Royal Bonnie | 30-1 |
| 8 | Hard Not To Like | 20-1 |
| 9 | Pure Gossip | 10-1 |
| 10 | Elusive Kate | 2-1 |
| 11 | Ann of the Dance | 30-1 |
| 12 | Dear Lavinia | 20-1 |
| 13 | Customer Base | 20-1 |
| 14 | Somali Lemonade | 5-1 |
Also eligible:
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 15 | Bourbonstreetgirl | 30-1 |
| 16 | Karlovy Vary | 30-1 |
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)
3 of 15Post Time: November 4 at 5:30pm
Distance: Seven Furlongs
Purse: $1 Million
2010 Winner: Dubai Majesty
This sprint race at seven furlongs gives some chance at a runner to come from the back of the pack and win.
It's not the norm, but it could happen.
But the best bet here is to look at the stalkers (did any one said Turbulent Descent?), especially the ones with an outside post.
This race has given us a $5.70 average payoff. The race has been usually dominated by the top three at the betting odds.
This year should be no different, as the race comes down to the favorite, Turbulent Descent. Dominant around one turn, the only questions regard her three-month layoff.
If it goes beyond her, anyone can win it.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Irish Gypsy | 12-1 |
| 2 | Great Hot | 15-1 |
| 3 | Turbulent Descent | 8-5 |
| 4 | Champagne d'Oro | 30-1 |
| 5 | Musical Romance | 15-1 |
| 6 | Switch | 7-2 |
| 7 | Tar Heel Mom | 30-1 |
| 8 | Tanda | 8-1 |
| 9 | Golden Mystery | 20-1 |
| 10 | Tamarind Hall | 30-1 |
| 11 | Her Smile | 30-1 |
| 12 | Pomeroys Pistol | 4-1 |
| 13 | Shotgun Gulch | 20-1 |
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Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
4 of 15Post Time: November 4 at 6:10pm
Distance: Eight-and-a-half Furlongs
Purse: $2 Million
2010 Winner: Awesome Feather
Just like its counterpart on the Colts side, this race is always seen as the one that will preview next year's possible dominant filly.
We have seen many fillies win here and keep their winning ways as three-year-olds. The list includes Like Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star, Silverbulletday and Indian Blessing, among others.
Since it will be the first time many of the contenders will go around two turns, it's always a guessing game as to who can handle it better.
Odds are that if the filly is bred to go the distance, she will do it. Also look for the ones that have closed well on sprint distances, as they might be asking for more track to finish.
The favorite is front-runner My Miss Aurelia. Grace Hall is second favorite; she has all the tools to make it around two turns and win.
If you are looking for a possible surprise, look no further than Miss Netta.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Questing | 20-1 |
| 2 | Candrea | 5-1 |
| 3 | Rocket Twentyone | 15-1 |
| 4 | Miss Netta | 10-1 |
| 5 | Grace Hall | 3-1 |
| 6 | Self Preservation | 30-1 |
| 7 | Putthebabiesdown | 15-1 |
| 8 | Homecoming Queen | 30-1 |
| 9 | My Miss Aurelia | 2-1 |
| 10 | Northern Passion | 30-1 |
| 11 | Weemissfrankie | 5-1 |
| 12 | Frolic's Revenge | 30-1 |
| 13 | Say a Novena | 15-1 |
| 14 | Awesome Belle | 15-1 |
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1)
5 of 15Post Time: November 4 at 6:50pm
Distance: 10 Furlongs
Purse: $2 Million
2010 Winner: Shared Account
Shared Account won last year, but only Ouija Board has won this race twice—and it was not back-to-back.
Stacelita has been dominant so far and will be hard to beat.
This is a tactical race, and like all races, the trip is key. But it's even more so on turf, where so many horses run bunched up.
It's a long race, suited for deep closers. In order to beat Stacelita at the odds, pick from the back of the pack for the upset.
Nahrain ships from France, winning her last four; she looks good to beat the favorite. If you are looking for long odds, take a look at Cambina—a good closer with a big time rider.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Dubawi Heights | 4-1 |
| 2 | Stacelita | 2-1 |
| 3 | Harmonious | 12-1 |
| 4 | Cambina | 30-1 |
| 5 | Nahrain | 7-2 |
| 6 | Announce | 5-1 |
| 7 | Aruna | 12-1 |
| 8 | Perfect Shirl | 30-1 |
| 9 | Shared Account | 20-1 |
| 10 | Distorted Legacy | 30-1 |
| 11 | Dynaslew | 30-1 |
| 12 | Misty For Me | 8-1 |
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1)
6 of 15Post Time: November 4 at 7:30pm
Distance: Nine Furlongs
Purse: $2 Million
2010 Winner: Unrivaled Belle
The main event for the first day of the Championships. The best fillies and mares clash to see who is best.
This year, the defections of the two best—for different reasons—will make this interesting to watch.
Usually, this is set up to be the battle between the best filly and best mare. Seven times in the 27 runnings of the race, a three-year-old filly has won it.
Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty is the favorite, and Royal Delta and It's Tricky follow her.
You'll be hard pressed to find a winner beyond them. They've exchanged wins this year.
If you look at good odds here, look for a miss-match.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Miss match | 12-1 |
| 2 | Pachattack | 6-1 |
| 3 | It's Tricky | 4-1 |
| 4 | Satans Quick Chick | 30-1 |
| 5 | Ask the Moon | 20-1 |
| 6 | Royal Delta | 5-2 |
| 7 | Ultra Blend | 12-1 |
| 8 | Plum Pretty | 8-5 |
| 9 | Medaglia d'Amour | 30-1 |
| 10 | Super Espresso | 20-1 |
Breeders' Cup Marathon (G2)
7 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 1:20pm
Distance: 14 Furlongs
Purse: $500,000
2010 Winner: Eldaafer
The longest race on the Breeders' Cup is the first championship run on Saturday.
While this race unfolds, get your sodas and popcorn and make it for the stretch run.
It's not an easy task to win this race. Not every horse will make it.
But since this is not a common distance, consider this a consolation prize for those horses, who otherwise would not be participating in the series.
A tactical race nonetheless, it was dominated by the Euros in its first two editions.
But that was on synthetic surface. Last year on dirt, it was a different story but one that produced a surprising winner.
It's an open race, so look for the deep closer who is running at this best, or at least working out at his best leading up to the race.
A.U. Miner is the favorite, and he certainly fits the bill.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Birdrun | 5-1 |
| 2 | Baryshnikov | 15-1 |
| 3 | Mezznah | 15-1 |
| 4 | Pleasant Prince | 8-1 |
| 5 | Giant Oak | 6-1 |
| 6 | Brigantin | 8-1 |
| 7 | Harrison's Cave | 20-1 |
| 8 | Afleet Again | 30-1 |
| 9 | Cease | 9-2 |
| 10 | Eldaafer | 10-1 |
| 11 | A.U.Miner | 3-1 |
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)
8 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 2:02pm
Distance: One Mile
Purse: $1 Million
2010 Winner: Pluck
This is another tricky race. One mile, two-year-old fillies, on the turf.
If you are looking for big odds, look elsewhere. Historically the average payoff here has been $6.80.
This year, there are good odds due to the balance on the favorites.
Todd Pletcher's Finale stands out, but at least six other fillies show a great shot at winning.
The wagering will be pretty even here.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Gung Ho | 30-1 |
| 2 | Fantastic Song | 20-1 |
| 3 | Shkspeare Shaliyah | 15-1 |
| 4 | Farraj | 10-1 |
| 5 | Wrote | 8-1 |
| 6 | Coalport | 20-1 |
| 7 | Caspar Netscher | 8-1 |
| 8 | Majestic City | 6-1 |
| 9 | Daddy Nose Best | 30-1 |
| 10 | Animal Spirits | 10-1 |
| 11 | Excaper | 20-1 |
| 12 | Lucky Chappy | 10-1 |
| 13 | Finale | 9-2 |
| 14 | State of Play | 5-1 |
Also eligible:
| 15 | Tequila Factor | 30-1 |
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1)
9 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 2:37pm
Distance: Six Furlongs
Purse: $1.5 Million
2010 Winner: Big Drama
Big Drama wired the field last year but comes with questions. And there are runners this year that will not let him take an easy lead like last year.
Due to those very same issues, this is another good race for betting.
Big Drama should be the favorite, but he will have decent odds as such.
This is a race that will produce a payoff on the $15-25 range every now and then. The last time was two years ago ($25.30).
This race could be for a horse that rises from the undead (Amazombie anyone?), or a horse capable of bending the rules of handicapping (Jackson Bend?).
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Euroears | 5-1 |
| 2 | Giant Ryan | 8-1 |
| 3 | Aikenite | 15-1 |
| 4 | Hamazing Destiny | 15-1 |
| 5 | Jackson Bend | 3-1 |
| 6 | Force Freeze | 10-1 |
| 7 | Amazombie | 6-1 |
| 8 | Big Drama | 2-1 |
| 9 | Apriority | 20-1 |
$1 Million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G2)
10 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 3:21pm
Distance: Five Furlongs
Purse: $1 Million
2010 Winner: Chamberlain Bridge
Don't leave your seats or blink on this race—it will be over pretty quickly.
It's just five furlongs on turf and is all systems go from the opening of the starting gate doors.
No margin for error in this race, and the strategy is pretty simple. Hustle your horse out of the gate and hope it has enough to hold off any stalking charge.
Look at the post positions—for the horses on the inside, the turn comes up quickly and they tend to stay behind.
Last year, Chamberlain Bridge smoked everyone from behind after rounding around them in the stretch. But he had the first post position and saved ground around the turn.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Grand Adventure | 20-1 |
| 2 | Holiday for Kitten | 30-1 |
| 3 | Broken Dreams | 15-1 |
| 4 | Perfect Officer | 10-1 |
| 5 | Great Attack | 20-1 |
| 6 | California Flag | 6-1 |
| 7 | Hoofit | 15-1 |
| 8 | Regally ready | 6-1 |
| 9 | Rapport | 20-1 |
| 10 | Havelock | 5-1 |
| 11 | Country Day | 20-1 |
| 12 | Camp Victory | 10-1 |
| 13 | Caracortado | 7-2 |
| 14 | Chamberlain Bridge | 8-1 |
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1)
11 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 4:01pm
Distance: One Mile
Purse: $1 Million
2010 Winner: Dakota Phone
This is a great race to bet on. The past two years, we've had payoffs of $37.70 and $21.30.
While the first two times it was an average of $4.50, it can go either way.
You see a lot of great sprint runners trying to stretch it out to the mile, and many times they fall short.
The one thing going for them is that at Churchill Downs, they run it at one turn. It's a long backstretch that allows the front-runners to settle down.
Trappe Shot is the favorite, although he has never run at this distance. The Factor is the second choice. It's a close race to call, as they are both in great shape.
But so are their contenders.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | The Factor | 5-2 |
| 2 | Shackleford | 6-1 |
| 3 | Tapizar | 20-1 |
| 4 | Tres Borrachos | 30-1 |
| 5 | Wilburn | 5-1 |
| 6 | Irrefutable | 20-1 |
| 7 | Jersey Town | 15-1 |
| 8 | Caleb's Posse | 6-1 |
| 9 | Trappe Shot | 2-1 |
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)
12 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 4:45pm
Distance: 12 Furlongs
Purse: $3 Million
2010 Winner: Dangerous Midge
The Belmont Stakes is the "Test of a Champion" on dirt. This is the one on turf. And the turf champions have come mostly from Europe on this race.
This race rarely produces big odds winners, and this year should be no different. European style tends to dominate this race, and this year Sarafina and Midday are the top choices.
But if you are like me and have questions on the favorites, you might like to look at another kind four-legged animal. Dean's Kitten happens to be ridden by the top jockey in the nation.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | St Nicholas Abbey | 6-1 |
| 2 | Sarafina | 5-2 |
| 3 | Dean's Kitten | 10-1 |
| 4 | Staley Victor | 30-1 |
| 5 | Teaks North | 20-1 |
| 6 | Await the Dawn | 4-1 |
| 7 | Sea Moon | 9-2 |
| 8 | Brilliant Speed | 20-1 |
| 9 | Midday | 7-2 |
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)
13 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 5:25pm
Distance: Eight-and-a-half Furlongs
Purse: $2 Million
2010 Winner: Uncle Mo
The race that serves as the audition for the early favorite for next year's Kentucky Derby.
While there is no doubt the winner here might be the best two-year-old at the moment, it's a long way to go for the roses in May.
Only once has the winner here gone on to win the Derby—Street Sense in 2007.
Most times, there is a horse that comes in with great expectations, like last year's winner Uncle Mo. This year's favorite, Union Rags, fits that bill.
But it's in our handicapping nature to look for the Vale of York's, the Wilko's or the Anees' of Breeders' Cup juvenile racing.
As usual with two-year-olds, much can happen. And it doesn't take much for a horse at this stage to improve and win.
Or for a horse to flatten out its unknown competition and shine (Hansen?).
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Take Charge Indy | 20-1 |
| 2 | Dullahan | 8-1 |
| 3 | Crusade | 12-1 |
| 4 | Drill | 5-1 |
| 5 | Hansen | 12-1 |
| 6 | Prospective | 20-1 |
| 7 | Creative Cause | 9-2 |
| 8 | Speightscity | 30-1 |
| 9 | Alpha | 20-1 |
| 10 | Union Rags | 5-2 |
| 11 | Daddy Long Legs | 10-1 |
| 12 | Fort Loudon | 20-1 |
| 13 | Optimizer | 20-1 |
TVG Breeders' Cup Mile (G1)
14 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 6:07pm
Distance: One Mile
Purse: $2 Million
2010 Winner: Goldikova
The amazing, incredible Goldikova goes for four straight. Unprecedented was winning three straight, but she did it.
Does she have one more big race on those legs?
There will be plenty of challengers that will go out to beat her. Gio Ponti is at his best distance and some "Courageous" felines are in top form.
This is a race everyone will watch—and bet on—because history is being written.
I have always liked 24 karat gold. Consider basic math and six (Goldivkova's age) times four (would be this victory for Goldikova). I guess I have my bet settled.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Goldikova | 9-5 |
| 2 | Zoofany | 15-1 |
| 3 | Courageous Cat | 8-1 |
| 4 | Mr. Commons | 15-1 |
| 5 | Gio Ponti | 5-1 |
| 6 | Get Stormy | 15-1 |
| 7 | Jeranimo | 20-1 |
| 8 | Byword | 12-1 |
| 9 | Court Vision | 30-1 |
| 10 | Sidney's Candy | 15-1 |
| 11 | Strong Suit | 10-1 |
| 12 | Compliance Officer | 30-1 |
| 13 | Turallure | 10-1 |
Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)
15 of 15Post Time: November 5 at 7:00pm
Distance: 10 Furlongs
Purse: $5 Million
2010 Winner: Blame
This is the event everyone looks for.
The best of the best for one final race, where champions are crowned.
While it's not a lock, often the winner here wins the Horse of the Year Award.
There are exceptions, like last year when Zenyatta had someone to "Blame" for her unbeaten streak ending in sensational fashion.
But she went on to win the HOY Award. And this year could go either way. Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo are going for that honor.
A close loss to Mo by Grace could replicate Zenyatta's fate for her.
But this race is hard to predict due to the high level of the horses running and the top form they have coming into the race.
Historically, many favorites or second choices go on to win, but there have been a few long shots that have been successful.
If you like to go beyond the the favorites this year, it's all up to you, or So You Think.
| No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Prayer for Relief | WD |
| 2 | Flat Out | 6-1 |
| 3 | Drosselmeyer | 15-1 |
| 4 | Ruler On Ice | 20-1 |
| 5 | So You Think | 8-1 |
| 6 | Ice Box | 30-1 |
| 7 | Rattlesnake Bridge | 20-1 |
| 8 | Game On Dude | 12-1 |
| 9 | Stay Thirsty | 8-1 |
| 10 | Havre de Grace | 3-1 |
| 11 | Headache | 30-1 |
| 12 | Uncle Mo | 5-2 |
| 13 | To Honor and Serve | 12-1 |
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