Why Boise State Will Get a Shot at the National Championship

It's funny really, a couple of weeks ago I considered writing an article titled 'Why Boise State has no chance at the National Championship' but, my, how things have changed.

In the last couple of weeks, marquee unbeaten teams such as Clemson, Oklahoma and Wisconsin have fallen. With Kansas State also losing this week, we are left with just 6 unbeaten teams. LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Houston and Boise State.

Taking out Houston, who has no real shot at a National Championship, It is likely that the National Championship game will take place between two of the other five squads. But realistically, which team has the best chance at being unbeaten at the end of the year? Without a doubt it's the Boise State Broncos. LSU and Alabama have to play each other, Stanford still has to beat Oregon, and Oklahoma State still has three games against ranked teams to go including the regular season finale versus Oklahoma.

Boise State however? They're toughest remaining game is November 12th versus TCU. Not a cakewalk by any means, but not many people could see Boise going down in that one.

The question is, assuming they do go undefeated again, will the BCS give them a National Championship opportunity? Logic says no. A one-loss Alabama/LSU, or undefeated Stanford may be higher up in the rankings then Boise. But don't forget, Boise does have a marquee victory on their schedule. After Georgia lost their second game of the season to South Carolina, Boise fans were shaking their heads as Boise's only victory they will get over a BCS school all season was getting diminished. But now, Georgia is ranked 19th in the country, and looks like they could end up in the SEC Championship game versus the LSU/Bama winner at year's end. 

The most likely undefeated team other then the winner between LSU and Alabama and Boise State is Stanford. After escaping with a win over USC, The Cardinal still need to get past Oregon, but if they do, they will likely finish the year undefeated. But Boise State is already 2 spots ahead of them in the BCS rankings (it will be 1 after this week because Clemson lost). Will a win over Oregon catapult them ahead of Boise? It's possible, but it seems unlikely. 

Personally, I can't see Oklahoma State running the table but if the Cowboys do, they will be in the National Title game. 

The final question is whether a one-loss SEC team would pass Boise in the BCS standings. Many would argue LSU and Alabama are the top two teams in the country. That may very well be true. Many will argue that this is really a National Semifinal game. But let's assume the winner of this game runs the table, the loser would not even make the SEC Championship game. It would be a very intriguing argument to see whether the BCS would create a rematch instead of picking the Broncos. But assuming Boise is either the only other undefeated team (other then Houston) or ranked ahead of Stanford, it's hard to argue they aren't the logical team to get the title shot. A one-loss Oklahoma, or any other one-loss team, would have a hard time arguing they deserve a shot over the loser of the LSU-Alabama game. So the only team left is Boise State.

While all of this may seem confusing, or even unlikely, it really isn't. Anything can happen in College Football. But with so many teams out of the way who were once ahead of Boise State, all they may need to do is win the rest of their games and let the other pieces fall into place.

One can argue all day whether Boise State deserves a shot at the National Championship because of their schedule but in my opinion this will finally be the year that they get it.