Manny Pacquiao Won't Need Another Split Decision to Beat Juan Manuel Marquez

While the boxing world waits for an (unlikely) end to the standoff that has blocked a Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather fight, Pacquiao is gearing up for another contest on November 12. For the third time, the Filipino star will take on Juan Manuel Marquez, one of the few fighters to manage even a draw against him in the past.

Pacquiao has faced Marquez twice before, drawing in 2004 and winning in 2008 by split decision. Both decisions have their detractors, particularly in Marquez’s camp, which feels its fighter deserved a win both times.

For his part, Pacquiao has gone 7-0 and won titles in a variety of weight classes since he last faced Marquez. Although it was their previous fight was billed as “Unfinished Business,” Pacquiao still has something to prove against the only fighter who’s faced him more than once without being knocked out.

This time around, though, it’s a good bet that Pac-Man will get his KO. In the first place, Pacquiao is more experienced at the fight’s 144-pound weight limit, whereas Marquez has spent most of the last three years at lightweight while losing his only welterweight bout (to Mayweather).

Just as critically, Marquez can hardly help but press in this fight. If, as he seems to believe, he was robbed by the judges twice against Pacquiao, he’s not going to leave things up to the judges a third time.

Fighting aggressively isn’t necessarily a bad thing (and will likely help Marquez on the judges’ cards), but it does greatly increase one’s chances of getting knocked out. Pacquiao is no fool, so he’ll be ready for Marquez to come out swinging and punish him as soon as he makes a mistake.

In the worst case, Pacquiao will win another decision, but it’ll almost certainly be unanimous if it happens. The likelihood, though, is that Marquez’s desire for a decisive victory will instead saddle him with a decisive loss.