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College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 9: Where's the Smart Money Going?

Jeff GrantOct 28, 2011

Professional sports bettors have a pretty good handle on the college football landscape after eight weeks of the college football season, which allows them to take stronger positions against the public.

Las Vegas oddsmakers are anticipating a solid handle this weekend, but it will be nothing compared to what's ahead when the No. 1 LSU Tigers and No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide battle it out in the trenches on Nov. 5.

Let's take a look at five plays that will likely have you cashing tickets on Saturday.

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

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This ACC battle is receiving the second-most wagers in Las Vegas right now and yet, the betting odds have dropped 1.5 points in most sports.

Clemson opened up as 4.5-point road favorites, but smart money has driven the number down to a field goal—despite 90 percent of the straight-bet wagers coming in on the unbeaten team.

The Tigers hold a 10-6 advantage in games played in Clemson, but have tallied a dismal 13-42-2 mark when playing in Atlanta.

Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson is one of the best underdog coaches in college football, especially when the number is four points or less, posting a 12-3-1 ATS mark in that situation.

Often times, sports betting is very simple.

When something looks too easy inside the sports book—it's time to go the other way.

Especially when the entire world knows how well the top teams in the country have fared against the spread this season.

Did I mention that the program is hosting its Homecoming Game on Saturday inside Bobby Dodd Stadium?

Upset alert at the highest level.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilit Commodores

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The Arkansas Razorbacks opened up as 10-point road favorites against the Vanderbilt Commodores, only to be bet down by a full-point in most sports books.

It's an eye-popping move due to being dropped down to just a single-digit favorite, especially when 85 percent of the action is backing the traveler in this SEC contest.

The smartest play in this game is likely to play the Commodores in the first half due to the Razorbacks being a second half squad.

Arkansas has outscored its opponents by a sizable 127-59 margin in the final 30 minutes of games this season.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats

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The oddsmakers are going for broke with Saturday's total in the Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats Big 12 Conference showdown, sending it out at 59.5.

Shockingly, despite over 95 percent of the wagers coming in on the "over", the total has dropped 1.5 points.

Smart money is expecting Oklahoma's head coach Bob Stoops to challenge his defense after last week's 41-38 loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders as 29-point home favorites.

It's definitely warranted due to the "under" cashing in six of seven Sooners' contests following a straight-up loss.

Consider this—Oklahoma has covered its last five games coming off a conference loss, while going below the total in 16 out of 20 games in that situation.

Stoops will have the defense charged up for a major performance.

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California Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins

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The oddsmakers had no choice but to open up the California Golden Bears as six-point favorites traveling to the Rose Bowl on Saturday.

UCLA was last seen getting blown out by the Arizona Wildcats on national television, falling 48-12 as five-point road underdogs.

In fact, the Bruins only spread victory this year came in a 27-19 win over the Oregon State Beavers, getting a generous 4.5 points in that contest.

California is known as one of the worst teams to wager on outside of the Bay Area, especially when laying points, registering a 2-7 ATS mark in that situation the last two-plus seasons.

The line has dropped to 4.5 despite the visitor receiving 80 percent of the action.

Smart money is clearly riding with the boys from Westwood.

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes

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Smart money was clearly paying attention in watching the Wisconsin Badgers walk off the field last Saturday after dropping a thrilling 37-31 contest to the Michigan State Spartans inside Spartans Stadium.

Due to the team's remarkable scoring margin since losing to the same opponent last year, oddsmakers had no choice but to send out Wisconsin as 7.5-point road favorites against Ohio State.

The betting odds have stayed virtually on that number throughout the week, despite 85 percent of the action expecting a bounce back from the high-scoring visiting side.

Somebody needs to tell those bettors that the Buckeyes are 45-5 straight up in their last 50 games inside Ohio Stadium, with none of those losses coming by more than a touchdown.

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