Alabama Football: Top Logical Reasons Why Alabama Will Defeat LSU

 I've always said that statistics could be used to argue either side of a debate. However, some figures are just too obvious to ignore.

They are the reasons why I believe that Alabama is the better team and will prevail in the upcoming contest that could very well determine who plays for a national championship.

Here are some that should make an LSU fan cringe a bit and lighten the heart of Alabama fans.

Offense Reasons

Scoring Offense

Bama rates 14th averaging 39 points a game.

LSU rates 15th averaging 38 points a game.

Rushing Offense 

Alabama is 15th and averages right at 230 yards a game rushing

LSU is only at 29th and averages 189 yards a game or 41 yards less—that's one whole drive.

Passing Offense

Alabama is 61st and averages 228 yards a game passing, an almost perfect balance with rushing.

LSU is 99th in passing averaging 183 yards a game, and like Alabama, balanced but 45 yards less.

Total Offense

Alabama is 23rd with 458 yards a game on average.

LSU is 78th with just a 372 yard per game average or 86 less yards a game, a whole scoring drive less.

Logical Conclusion

Alabama simply performs better than LSU in every major offensive category.

Subjective Conclusion

Alabama's offense should outperform LSU's in every category and, on paper, is one score better, but since Alabama's defense is also superior, that margin grows to at least two scores better.

Defensive Reasons

Scoring Defense

Alabama of course is first allowing opponents on 6.9 points per game.

LSU is third but allows 11.5 points per game, or almost double what Alabama allows.

Rushing Defense

Alabama of course is first allowing just 44.88 yards a game.

LSU is a respectable fourth place, but allows 76.63 yards a game or almost double Alabama's average.

Passing Defense

Alabama is third in the country and allows an average of just 135.6 yards a game passing.

LSU is 11th and gives up 174.8 yards a game or almost 40 yards a game more.

Total Defense

Again, Alabama is first with a 180.5 yard average per game.

LSU is third, but gives up 251.4 yards a game or about 71 more yards more per game.

Logical Conclusion

Once again LSU is behind Alabama in EVERY major category. The extra 71 yards a game that they give up over Alabama's average is the equivalent to one additional scoring drive.

Subjective Conclusion

Tennessee ran for 111 yards on LSU, and their running game is nowhere near the ferocity of Alabama. They are rated the 115th team out of 120 in rushing and rushed for more yards against LSU than their average team by an extra 20 percent. If Alabama runs for just 20 percent more than their average against LSU, then they'll run for 276 yards.

LSU will be ripped by the Alabama rushing game.

West Virginia passed for 463 yards against LSU or 20 percent more against LSU than their average opponent. If Alabama passes for the same 20 percent extra against LSU, they'll throw for about 275 yards.

LSU will be ripped by the Alabama passing game.

Other Huge Important Stats

Third-Down Conversions

Alabama is the 12th best team in converting third downs with a 50.47 percentage.

LSU is 34th, but still manages to complete 46.15 percent of their third downs, but that's six less total conversions than Alabama has made in total number of conversions.

Keeping Opponents From Converting Third Downs

Alabama is second and allows opponents to covert 26.4 percent of their first downs.

LSU is 20th and allows opponents to convert 32.46 of their first downs.

Penalties

Alabama is the third least penalized team averaging just 29.5 yards a game.

LSU is number 79, in the bottom half of all teams averaging 55.5 yards a game.

Giving up Big Plays on Defense

Big Plays

		10+	20+	30+	40+	50+	60+	70+	80+	90+
	Name	G	Yds	Yds	Yds	Yds	Yds	Yds	Yds	Yds	Yds
1	Alabama	8	50	14	6	2	2	1	0	0	0

23     LSU                8         83        19         6           3           2            2           1           0           0

LSU gives up more big plays than Alabama, 33 more in fact between 20 and 30 yards, five more between 30 and 40 and isn't better in any big play category at all.

Punt Returns

Alabama has run one punt back for a touchdown and averages almost 50 yards a game in returns.

LSU has run none back and averages a measly 21 yards a game, less than half of Alabama's average.

Kickoff Returns

LSU has run one KO back for a touchdown and averages over 67 yards a game on KO returns.

Alabama has no KO returns for touchdowns and averages just 44 yards a game on KO returns.

Logical Conclusion

Alabama is better than LSU in big plays without a doubt. They are much better in preventing teams from converting third downs.

Subjective Conclusion

Alabama's ability to rip of more big plays on offense and both convert more third downs as well as preventing more third down conversions on defense means that Alabama wins this game.

Physics

Defensive and Offensive Lines

When the ball is snapped, Alabama will hit the 298-pound-per-man average LSU line with 281 pounds of muscle. On average, Alabama's 17 pounds less per man, but many steps faster.

When the ball is snapped LSU hit the 298-pound-per-man average Alabama line with 256 pounds of muscle. On average, LSU's 42 pounds lighter per man, but they are faster.

LSU's average defensive lineman is 25 pounds a man lighter than Alabama's.

LSU's average offensive lineman and Alabma's are basically a wash.

Logical Conclusion

Alabama's players are bigger than LSU's players where it matters the most.

Subjective Conclusion

A fast big man beats a fast light man almost every time in the war of the trenches. Alabama wins the war of the trenches.

Depth

Receivers

Alabama has nine receivers who have caught eight or more balls this season.

LSU has four receivers who have caught eight or more balls this season, less than half of Bama's total.

Running Backs

Alabama has three running backs with more than 12 carries who average seven or more yards a carry.

LSU has none. In fact their best running back averages just 5.58 yards a carry, the rest much less.

In fact LSU's best two backs average together about the same average as Alabama's fourth-string back.

Tackles for Loss

In a quirky fate of statistics, both teams have 61 tackles for loss, that's 7.63 per game. But Alabama's tackles for loss resulted in 13 extra yards. Alabama also has 23 players with tackle for loss to LSU's 20.

Logical Conclusion

In most skilled positions and on the lines on both sides of the ball, Alabama has much more experience and a deeper depth of quality talent.

Subjective Conclusion

Since Alabama has nine tried and tested receivers who have caught eight balls or more, it will be impossible for LSU to double-team any receiver without the possibility of having another really good receiver being left in a great position for McCarron to spot.

Should LSU lose a top running back things could get dicey for them. But Alabama's fourth-string running back has production figures that are as good as LSU's best two.

Another conclusion that has no figures to support it is the quality depth in the defensive lines and linebackers. Alabama's second string has played more snaps than LSU's and without any falloff in defensive numbers.

Final Logical Conclusion for the Outcome of the Game

Alabama is a better team and should win.

Final Subjective Conclusion for the Outcome of the Game

Alabama is a better team and should win, at least in my opinion by 10 points or more.

If the game gets ugly, it can only get ugly for LSU. Alabama just has more big play ability.

Logical Final Score Prediction

Alabama 28 - 17

Subjective Final Score Prediction

Alabama 35 - 13