Setting Hall of Fame Odds for Tim Tebow and Every Week 8 Starting Quarterback

There are only 23 modern-era quarterbacks in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, as referenced by its own website. Among those are some of the greatest to play football at any position. Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw both won four Super Bowl Championships; Troy Aikman won three. 

The sign of an elite quarterback with Hall of Fame credentials isn't just numbers; a better indicator is winning.

For example, Bradshaw threw just two more touchdowns than interceptions over his 14-year career, but won four titles. On the other hand, Dan Marino threw a whopping 168 more touchdowns than interceptions, but failed to win a title. Both are firmly entrenched as the game's great quarterbacks of history, but each went about it a different way. 

Today, I am going to set odds of each NFL starting quarterback for this week actually being enshrined in Canton after their careers have ended.

Keep in mind that only 23 quarterbacks have had that distinction over the last 40 years. So, let's take a look. 

Matt Moore

The Stats

Matt Moore has thrown 17 touchdown passes in 16 career starts and has a record of 7-9 during that span. 

He is by all indications a marginal starting quarterback who is better suited to being a backup and coming in to win a game here and there. Moore will not surprise you with a strong arm or great physical tools. He is smart in the pocket and limits mistakes, as evidenced by his 20 interceptions in nearly 500 passing attempts. 

Still, it is laughable to even mention him in the same vein as some of the league's great quarterbacks.

Odds: 15,000-1

Curtis Painter

The Stats

Painter has thrown five touchdowns compared to just two interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 85.2 in 2011.

Sixty-eight touchdowns and 46 interceptions—those were Curtis Painter's numbers in his four seasons as a Purdue Boilermaker. He ranks among the greatest Purdue quarterbacks, a list that also includes Bob Griese and Drew Brees. 

Still, he isn't a starter-caliber quarterback in the NFL. Instead, Painter probably caps out as a nice backup on a good team.

Odds: 15,000-1

Charlie "Clipboard Jesus" Whitehurst

The Stats

Three NFL starts and three touchdown passes. Has appeared in 10 regular season games in a six-year career.

It is still hard to imagine that Seattle traded down 20 spots in the second round of the 2010 draft and gave San Diego a 2011 third-round pick for the services of Charlie Whitehurst. I can easily conclude that the Seahawks are the only team in the league that perceived him to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. 

Still, Whitehurst did come up big in their division-clinching win against the St. Louis Rams on the final weekend of the 2010 regular season by throwing for 200 yards and a touchdown. 

That said, he isn't going to get many more starts in the NFL unless some team decides that Whitehurst is a late bloomer. 

Odds: 15,000-1

John Beck

The Stats

Six career starts, four interceptions and just two touchdowns. Has not won a game yet. 

Whoever gave Mike Shanahan the idea that either John Beck or Rex Grossman were starting quarterbacks in the NFL should be fired immediately. Oh, never mind. It was his son, Kyle. 

Still, give me a break. Beck had a record-setting career at BYU, but who doesn't? Seriously, Robbie Bosco won a national title with them.

John Beck doesn't have the necessary skill set to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, it just isn't there. 

Odds: 15,000-1

Kevin Kolb

The Stats

His record is 4-9 as a starting quarterback. Under 60 percent completion percentage and three more touchdowns than interceptions. Nearly $4 million a touchdown!

Yesterday, I called out Kevin Kolb for being the largest disaster in the NFL this season, and I stand by the quote. This dude has not done anything to earn the money that Arizona gave him or receive the trust of the fanbase. While 13 starts is a small sample size, he appears to be a loser by all possible estimates. Prior to 2011, Kolb had a 3-4 record with a good Philadelphia Eagles team. 

Now that he doesn't have the weapons around him, we are getting a glimpse of the real Kevin Kolb. 

And it is downright dreadful.

Odds: 12,000-1

Colt McCoy

The Stats

One more touchdown than interception and a 58.2 completion percentage in his first 14 NFL starts. 

Many skeptics stated that Colt McCoy's game didn't translate to the NFL when he came out of Texas in 2010. While this is still being debated, no one can question that he has performed better than most people thought. 

McCoy doesn't have the strongest arm, cannot make every throw on the field and lacks the physical tools to be an elite quarterback in this league. Still, he has outperformed previously set expectations both in college and high school. 

At some point, it just becomes more about being able to suit it up and perform at a winning level. This is exactly what McCoy has done throughout his life, and there is no reason to expect anything different moving forward. 

Odds: 10,000-1

Odds: 11,000-to-one 

Tim Tebow

The Stats

Tebow has accounted for 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his four career starts and 13 appearances. Not bad. However, his completion percentage is under 50 right now. 

I wanted to put Tebow much higher on the list. He is the polar opposite of Kevin Kolb in that he has been a winner throughout his college and NFL career. 

Still, I am not sure he has the necessary skill set to be a starting quarterback in the league. Some team might plan an entire offensive scheme around Tebow and revolutionize how the game is played, but that is a major stretch at this point. 

We need a larger sample size before coming to a definite conclusion about how Tebow's career is going to play out. 

Odds: 10,000-1

Matt Hasselbeck

The Stats

He has 72 career wins and has thrown 186 career touchdown passes. Hasselbeck has also thrown for over 31,000 yards in his career.

Matt Hasselbeck is a lot easier to gauge than most quarterbacks on this list because he is towards the end of a really good career. Still, really good doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame. 

Unless Hasselbeck leads the Titans to back-back Super Bowl Championships, it is highly unlikely he gets the call from Canton one day. 

Odds: 10,000-1

Blaine Gabbert

The Stats

Only two interceptions in 143 attempts so far as a rookie, completing less than 50 percent of his passes and averaging only 135 yards per game. 

I like Gabbert's skill set; he is going to be a really good quarterback in the league one day. The former Missouri star is comfortable in the pocket and does a decent job of reading defensive schemes. He also has a rather surprisingly strong arm. 

Like most rookie quarterbacks, we need a much larger sample size before coming to a conclusion as to how his career is going to pan out. 

The odds: Incomplete

Andy Dalton

The Stats

A 62 percent completion percentage, two more touchdowns than interceptions and a 84.3 quarterback rating. 

I might draw some criticism for the following statement, but I have to speak my mind. Andy Dalton reminds me a lot of Steve Young. He doesn't have the greatest tools in the world, but gets it done and wins most of his games. 

Dalton was nearly unbeatable as the quarterback for the Texas Christian Horned Frogs, and it is looking a lot like he is going to be a winner with the Cincinnati Bengals. He doesn't make many mistakes, avoids throwing into coverage and reads defensive passing lanes extremely well.

Odds: Incomplete

Christian Ponder

The Stats

Two touchdowns, two interceptions and a completion percentage under 50. 

Everyone knew that Christian Ponder had first-round talent coming out of Florida State. Still, it surprised a lot of people that Minnesota picked him up in the first half of the first round. On the same note, I had both Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton rated higher than Ponder heading into April's draft. 

Being my biggest skeptic, I have to admit that I was completely wrong about Ponder. He has the look of an NFL quarterback and can make any throw on the football field. What I like most about him are his leadership capabilities and ability to read defensive secondary schemes. We saw that at full representation against the Green Bay Packers last week.

Christian Ponder is going to be one hell of a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Odds: Incomplete

Alex Smith

The Stats

Four more touchdowns than interceptions in six-plus seasons. Eight games under .500 as a starting quarterback.

The aforementioned stats are not an indicator of the improvements that Alex Smith has made over the course of the last two seasons—this year more specifically. He is finally looking to live up to that first-round status and shed the bust label.

Still, there is absolutely no way that Alex Smith should now—or ever—be compared to the great quarterbacks in San Francisco 49ers history. Short of winning a couple titles and making multiple Pro Bowl appearances, even mentioning him and Canton in the same breath is laughable. 

Odds: 8,000-1

Joe Flacco

The Stats

He has recorded 29 more touchdowns than interceptions since coming into the league in 2008 and has a career winning percentage of .667 during the regular season. 

If I had made this list towards the end of the 2010 regular season, Joe Flacco would have been in the top 10. This season is a completely different story, as his regression as a quarterback has been startling. We already had preconceived notions that the Delaware product wasn't a big-game quarterback. Now he appears to have lost the confidence that is needed to succeed at the highest level. 

Flacco threw five interceptions in his final 13 starts last season (381 passing attempts), he has thrown the same amount of interceptions in just 211 attempts this season. Additionally, Flacco's completion percentage remains one of the lowest in the NFL.

He has the talents and ability to be an All-Pro quarterback, but time is running out for Flacco to be considered elite. 

Odds: 6,000-1

Sam Bradford

The Stats

Four more touchdowns than interceptions in 21 career starts and one interception per 48.6 passing attempts. 

This is where the gap starts to grow between those who have absolutely no shot at Canton and those who have an outside shot.

There is no doubt that Sam Bradford has all the necessary tools to be a Hall of Fame quarterback in the NFL. This doesn't mean that his odds are good for that happening. Rather, Bradford needs to take his game to the next level in relatively short order. It is incredibly hard to do that when you have no supporting cast on the outside at the wide receiver position. 

Simply put, the Rams need to get Sam Bradford more weapons so that he can fully utilize the amazing skills that he has. 

On the same note, Bradford is injured right now and has regressed in his sophomore season. 

Odds: 2,000-1

Mark Sanchez

The Stats

Owns a .610 winning percentage in 38 career NFL starts, but has only thrown two more touchdowns than interceptions. 

The Jets have made a point of building a championship team around their defense and along the offensive line. This has given Mark Sanchez one of the best situations in the entire league. Still, he isn't now or never will be an elite quarterback in the NFL. 

There is one great comparison to Mark Sanchez: He is the "greatest" Jets quarterback of all time, Joe Namath.

"Broadway Joe," as he is called, threw 47 more interceptions than touchdowns and only completed 50 percent of his passes over an average 13-year career. However, he had a really good team around him for a few years and the result was a Super Bowl Championship in 1968. 

Now, I don't expect Sanchez to be on the negative end of the touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he just doesn't have what it takes to be an All-Pro quarterback in the NFL. 

Odds: 2,000-1

Ryan Fitzpatrick

The Stats

Twenty-one touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first 23 NFL starts; 35 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in his last 19 NFL starts. 

It is too bad that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a late bloomer because he would be much higher on this list if that weren't the case. As it is, the Ivy League grad has come up big over the last two seasons and is leading the Bills to a surprising 2011 campaign. 

I like the young talent that Buffalo has surrounded Fitzpatrick with as well. He has all the tools necessary to succeed in the NFL. 

It should be fun to see how the rest of his career plays out. 

Odds: 2,000-1

Josh Freeman

The Stats

Six interceptions in 474 pass attempts last season, 10 interceptions in 200 fewer attempts this season. 

Josh Freeman has regressed a great deal so far in 2011 after a breakout 2010 campaign. He is having issues reading the field and is throwing the ball into too many tight windows. 

That said, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an extremely talented young team, and Freeman has all the physical tools to be an elite quarterback in the NFL. It might be too early to anoint him as a future franchise quarterback, but I like what I see thus far. 

Odds: 1,200-1

Matt Cassel

The Stats

Over 11,000 passing yards in just 51 starts as well as a plus-31 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

It is hard to imagine that Matt Cassel attempted only 14 passes during his college career at USC. Prior to getting the call to replace an injured Tom Brady in 2008, he had not started a game since high school. 

From rags to riches, I guess. 

He had his best season as a pro last season, throwing for 27 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions. This season started out slow, but Cassel has picked it up as of late.

Still, he is on the wrong side of 20 and doesn't have enough time in his prime in order to even be considered a Canton contender. It just isn't a possibility right now.

Odds: 1,200-1

Carson Palmer

The Stats

Palmer's 22,964 career passing yards and 154 touchdowns both rank third in Cincinnati Bengals franchise history. 

Dan Fouts did not win a Super Bowl in his illustrious career with the San Diego Chargers. He did throw for over 43,000 yards and received the call to Canton because of regular season success. 

I am not ready to state that Carson Palmer compares in any way to Dan Fouts, or that he cannot win the big game—that would be foolhardy at this point. 

What I will say is that, at just 31 years old, Palmer has about seven seasons left in that right arm. If you average out what he has done over the course of his career and extend that to those seven seasons, this is what you get: about 43,000 passing yards and over 300 touchdowns.

The passing yards alone would eclipse those of Dan Fouts and many other Hall of Fame quarterbacks. However, Palmer must regain his 2006 form and lead the Oakland Raiders to a Super Bowl before any mention of Canton can be made. 

Odds: 900-1

Matt Schaub

The Stats

Has thrown 38 more touchdowns than interceptions during his career and has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in two different seasons. 

At 30 years old, Matt Schaub lost three seasons sitting behind Michael Vick in Atlanta. Although, he has more than made up for that since, it is hard to imagine him putting up the necessary numbers to be considered one of the best quarterbacks of this era. 

You would have to conclude that he has about seven seasons left of solid quarterback play. If Schaub is able to lead the Texans to a title or two and average 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns during that span (not likely), he will sit in the top 10 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. 

I just don't see that happening. 

Odds: 900-1

Matt Ryan

The Stats

Matt Ryan has thrown 33 more touchdowns than interceptions in his short career. With 75 career touchdown passes, Ryan is clearly on pace to hit 300 sometime in 2023. 

Where to start with Matty Ice? There have been a lot of discussions as to whether Ryan is an elite quarterback in the NFL. As of now, I would have to conclude that he isn't. This doesn't mean that the Boston College product won't be in the near future, he just isn't there yet. 

Matt Ryan has all the physical tools necessary to succeed in the NFL and he has been a pretty darn good quarterback during his first few seasons in the NFL. With the offensive firepower that the Falcons front office has furnished him with, expect Ryan's numbers and the team's success to strengthen over the years. 

If this happens, he will end up being a premier quarterback in the NFL.

Odds: 500-1

Jay Cutler

The Stats

Cutler, who is only 28, has thrown 113 touchdown passes. He has also been sacked 73 times in the Bears' last 21 games. Ouch! 

Gutsy is probably the best word you could use to describe Jay Cutler's performance over the last couple seasons with the Chicago Bears. He doesn't get any help from a poor offensive line or lackluster receiving group. Still, Cutler finds a way to win and gets it done during the regular season. 

Jay Cutler is only 28 years old, which may surprise a lot of people. This means that he has a good decade of football left in that arm. If he continues to perform at this level and progresses in terms of mistakes, Cutler could have an outside shot at Canton. 

You are looking at a quarterback who could easily eclipse 50,000 passing yards and 350 touchdown passes. If that happens, it will be extremely hard for him to be denied the dinner jacket in Ohio. 

Odds: 400-1

Cam Newton

The Stats

Cam Newton is on pace for 5,414 total yards and 34 touchdowns his rookie season. 

I might get a lot of crap for having Newton this high, and deservedly so. His sample size is way too small to be considered a top 10 quarterback in the NFL at this point—or to even be mentioned in the same sentence with Canton. 

This I get. 

Back in 2001, a lot of "experts" said that a young Michael Vick was going to revolutionize the quarterback position in the NFL. While that may have happened, injuries and off-field issues prevented that from taking on a life of its own. 

Fast-forward a decade and you now get a look at Newton, the new revolutionary at the quarterback position. He has a stronger arm, is built better and reads the field better than the young Michael Vick did.

Additionally, Newton is putting up rookie numbers that we have never seen before. As I mentioned above, he is on pace for nearly 5,500 yards of total offense as a rookie. Once Newton learns the nuances of the NFL game and becomes a more complete quarterback, watch out. 

He is a once-in-a-generation type of talent and is going to lead the way for other similar quarterbacks like Robert Griffin III. 

Odds: 200-1

Matthew Stafford

The Stats

Stafford has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions over his last 10 starts. He has only played in half of the Lions' games since 2009. 

If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, which isn't a guarantee, you could be looking at the next great football team in the Detroit Lions. They have everything that you are looking for in a young, up-and-coming team. The popular head coach, franchise quarterback, stud wide receiver, go-to tight end and scary defensive players. 

One thing they all have in common: they are extremely young. 

If Stafford continues to progress as a quarterback, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be Canton-worthy when it is all said and done. It doesn't hurt that he might have a Super Bowl title or two when that time comes. 

Still, the injury issues are the primary concern at this point and the reason he isn't higher. 

Odds: 150-1

Tony Romo

The Stats

Tony Romo has thrown for over 18,000 yards and 128 touchdowns in just 67 career starts. He has 1,216 more passing yards and 27 more touchdowns than Tom Brady in his first 67 starts. 

Dan Marino never won the Super Bowl and came up short in big games. Still, he was a first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee because of amazing regular season stats. It might be too early to call Tony Romo this generation's Marino, but it is starting to look a lot like that. 

At 31 years old, Romo probably has seven more seasons as a viable starting quarterback remaining in his career. If you factor in the numbers that he has averaged over the last five seasons, he would be a shoo-in Hall of Fame player.

You are looking at over 42,000 passing yards and nearly 300 touchdown passes. Those are numbers that rival the likes of Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas. That said, without postseason success, it isn't even viable to mention him in the same vein as those two. 

It might all come down to breaking the Cowboys' disastrous postseason performances and leading them to a Super Bowl title. If that happens, Romo is a lock for the Hall of Fame.

Odds: 100-1

Philip Rivers

The Stats

Philip Rivers has thrown for over 21,000 yards and 143 touchdowns before his 30th birthday. 

It is safe to say that Rivers' lack of success thus far in 2011 is a mirage. He has a track record of being one of the best all-around quarterbacks in the NFL, as evidenced by some mind-numbing starts. As with Tony Romo, this might all come down to postseason performance with Rivers. 

Still, Rivers probably has eight more years of above-average play in him, which would lead to Hall of Fame credentials. At this point, he is on pace to throw for 52,000 yards and 350 touchdowns. This would rank him right behind John Elway on the all-time yards list and ahead of Fran Tarkenton on the touchdown list.

Odds: 40-1

Michael Vick

The Stats

Michael Vick has over 21,000 total yards and 135 touchdowns in just 85 career NFL starts. 

I had previously mentioned how Cam Newton is on the verge of revolutionizing the quarterback position, but that wouldn't have been possible if it wasn't for Michael Vick, who was the first great 21st-century NFL signal-caller. 

Now, NFL teams are building their offenses around quick, agile and smaller-sized quarterbacks. Drew Brees is a perfect representation of that. 

Michael Vick only has just over five full seasons of wear and tear on his 31-year-old body. It is conceivable that he could play for another decade, barring injury. If that were to occur and with the young talent that Philadelphia has, he could be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.

He already has the quarterback rushing record and could conceivably account for 50,000 total yards and 300 touchdowns if his career plays out like I predict.

Odds: 30-1

Eli Manning

The Stats

Eli Manning has 167 touchdown passes in seven-plus seasons, putting him on pace to hit the coveted 300 mark at some point in his career. 

We all understand that the younger of the Manning brothers is the least talented of the two. This is pretty obvious, and I am sure Eli would even admit that. Still, he is one heck of a player at this point in his career. 

Eli has one distinction that most Hall of Fame quarterbacks have: a Super Bowl ring. This goes a long way in cementing his legacy in Canton when this fine career comes to an end.

At 30 years old, Manning could play for another decade, which would lead to over 50,000 passing yards and more than 350 touchdowns. Hall of Fame numbers if you ask me.

Odds: 20-1

Ben Roethlisberger

The Stats

Big Ben has won 71 percent of his 105 career regular season starts. Additionally, he is 10-3 in the postseason. 

Two Super Bowl Championships, call it a day. Ben Roethlisberger should be a lock to go to the Hall of Fame based solely on that. After all, the only quarterback with two Super Bowl rings that isn't in Canton is Phil Simms. 

Roethlisberger has accomplished this feat at a younger age than any quarterback in the history of the NFL—he hasn't even hit 30 yet. Assuming that he has seven or eight more seasons of solid play, Big Ben will throw for 50,000 yards and 300 touchdowns—two more indicators of a trip to Canton.

Odds: 2-1

Aaron Rodgers

The Stats

Aaron Rodgers is on pace for 5,471 passing yards and 46 touchdowns this season. 

Maybe I have Rodgers higher on this list because of pure predictions than anything else, but he is playing the best of any quarterback in the modern history of the NFL right now. I know that is a strong statement to make, but try to prove me wrong. 

At 27, he already has a Super Bowl championship and should grab another one this season if all plays out like most expect. He has compiled over 15,000 passing yards and 107 touchdowns in just 54 career starts. For those of you wondering, that is about three-and-a-half seasons of football. 

At this point, 400 touchdown passes seem like a real possibility when it comes to Rodgers—not to mention multiple Super Bowls.

Odds: Even

Drew Brees

The Stats

Drew Brees has thrown for 4,000 yards or more four consecutive seasons and will probably pass Joe Montana into 10th place on the all-time list at some point this season. 

The majority of this article has been about previous performances and future predictions, so let's continue with that theme. Brees is on pace to break every single major career passing record. At 31 years old, he has already recorded nearly 38,000 passing yards and 253 touchdown passes.

That has been over the course of 10 seasons. The way Brees keeps in shape and doesn't get injured, it is conceivable that he could play into his early 40s. 

So, double those aforementioned numbers and you come up with career passing records. Oh, and Brees already has a Super Bowl to his credit as well.

Odds: Lock

Tom Brady

The Stats

Tom Brady has won 78 percent of his career starts, the best winning percentage of any quarterback in NFL history with more than 125 career starts. 

Pure conjecture: Is there anyone out there who doesn't think Brady is already a lock for the Hall of Fame? If so, let's have a really funny debate on your reasoning behind such an asinine view. For the rest of you who actually exist in real life here on earth, follow my reasoning. 

Three Super Bowl Championships, two Super Bowl MVP awards, single-season touchdown record, a career 95.6 quarterback rating, 23 touchdowns shy of 300, eight consecutive 3,000-yard seasons, a 3-to-1 career touchdown to interception ratio...need I continue?

Brady will probably play for another five seasons, if not more. At his current pace, that would put him at about 60,000 passing yards and 440-plus touchdowns. Did I mention the three Super Bowl rings?

Not only have they already created his bust in Canton to save work at a later date, historians are going to consider Tom Brady one the greatest players to EVER hit the football field in the United States.

Odds: Lock