NCAA Basketball Top 25: Why Each Team Is Too High, Too Low or Just Right

The preseason college basketball rankings for 2011-12 are out, which means it’s time for the arguments to commence. With a couple of weeks to wait before the real games start, there’s plenty of time to speculate on which schools do or don’t belong in the Top 25.

Some teams, like Tu Holloway’s 15th-ranked Xavier squad, will ultimately struggle to retain their initial rankings. Others, like Khris Middleton's No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies, appear to have been shortchanged by the initial vote.

Read on for a look at all 25 teams in the 2011-2012 ESPN/USA Today preseason rankings, Goldilocks-style.

25. Missouri

New Tigers coach Frank Haith inherits loads of talented players. Laurence Bowers and Ricardo Ratliffe are tremendously mobile down low, Marcus Denmon is an outstanding scorer on the perimeter and youngster Phil Pressey is an up-and-comer at the point.

On the other hand, those players were carefully chosen to fit Mike Anderson’s high-speed system, and what Haith will do with them remains to be seen.

Considering the team’s inability to win on the road last season, the bottom of the rankings looks like a good fit.

Verdict: Just Right

24. California

Few teams return the kind of experience the Golden Bears boast, but Cal’s veterans have talent, too. Jorge Gutierrez, the defending Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, averaged 14.3 points a game last season, a total matched by power forward Harper Kamp.

Cal also adds a new weapon to its mix with now-eligible Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs, who will likely take over the point guard chores from Gutierrez, allowing the latter to concentrate on scoring.

In a largely inexperienced Pac-12, this team will make some noise.

Verdict: Too Low

23. Gonzaga

The Zags are set, as usual, to roll over most of their WCC competition, but on the national stage, this team has more question marks than in years past. Center Robert Sacre and forward Elias Harris both have serious talent, but Harris is coming off a down year.

More worrisome is the situation in the backcourt, where no obvious solution exists to replace leading scorer Steven Gray. Gonzaga will still be a dangerous tournament team, but their current talent level does not merit their preseason ranking.

Verdict: Too High

22. Cincinnati

Cincinnati has its problems on offense, lacking the weapons to complement undersized low-post warrior Yancy Gates. However, Gates and the rest of the Bearcats defense constitute a formidable unit, as Missouri learned last March.

Considering the team's returning talent, it would be dangerous to underestimate Cincy. The Bearcats may climb even higher in the rankings if they improve their scoring output, but for now they’re right where they belong.

Verdict: Just Right

21. Marquette

It’s hard to blame the voters for giving credit to a Golden Eagles team that upset mighty Syracuse in March. Unfortunately for Marquette fans, the team no longer has the star power to stay on top in the rough-and-tumble Big East.

The loss of Jimmy Butler leaves the offense entirely in the hands of Darius Johnson-Odom, and while the senior guard is talented, he needs more help. Unless Vander Blue can step up after his weak freshman showing, Marquette just won’t score enough to complement its hard-working defense.

Verdict: Too High

20. UCLA

UCLA’s post play should be strong this season, as 6’8” leading scorer Reeves Nelson is joined by a pair of even bigger transfers, the 6’10” Wear twins (formerly of North Carolina). On the outside, though, the Bruins are going to have some catching up to do.

The loss of NBA draftees Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee will take an enormous toll on a perimeter game that wasn’t always a strength to begin with.

Until the Bruins prove their guard play can complement their bigs, they don’t belong in the Top 25.

Verdict: Too High

19. Texas A&M

One of the country’s best defensive teams in 2010-11, the Aggies will almost certainly continue that trend under new coach Billy Kennedy. A&M sometimes struggled to score last season, but their chances to improve on offense are good.

The team returns its top two scorers, potential All-American Khris Middleton and frontcourt mate David Loubeau. With senior Dash Harris back to run the point, Texas A&M should have a chance to build on last year’s strong performance.

Verdict: Too Low

18. Michigan

With offensive weapons like Zack Novak and Tim Hardaway Jr. returning, Michigan is certainly going to put some points on the board.

Whether they’ll score as much as last year, though, depends on how well they can adjust for the loss of star point guard Darius Morris.

Morris was one of the most efficient passers in the country, and it’s unclear whether Hardaway—or anyone else—can keep the Wolverine offense clicking.

For a team that isn’t going to win many games with defense, the loss of such a critical piece on offense is an awfully big preseason question mark.

Verdict: Too High

17. Alabama

The SEC West hasn’t gotten much respect on the basketball court lately, and no team knows it as well as Alabama. The defending division champs, snubbed by the NCAA tournament, made a run to the finals of last spring’s NIT.

With the core of that team—including star power forward JaMychal Green—returning, the Tide has a chance to build on its postseason experience.

With Green and Trevor Releford, Alabama has a proven inside-outside combination few teams can match.

Verdict: Too Low

16. Arizona

The Wildcats surprised everyone with their Elite Eight run in March, and much of the same lineup returns for 2011-12. However, without No. 2 NBA draft pick Derrick Williams making plays on both ends of the floor, his supporting cast will struggle to replicate its impressive season.

Even the arrival of highly touted point guard Josiah Turner won’t be enough to make Arizona a national contender again. They’ll probably hang around near the bottom of the rankings, but No. 16 is too high.

Verdict: Too High

15. Xavier

Tu Holloway is one of the few returning All-Americans in the country, earning third-team recognition a season ago. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the senior combo guard top the 20.2 points and 5.5 assists per game he recorded in 2010-11.

However, Xavier had very little around Holloway last season (hence their first-round pummeling by 11th-seeded Marquette)—and he’ll get even less help this year with leading rebounder Jamel McLean gone.

The Musketeers have enough talent to repeat as A-10 champs, but not enough to earn such a high preseason ranking.

Verdict: Too High

14. Wisconsin

The loss of three-point sniper Jon Leuer will certainly hurt the Wisconsin offense, but winning with offense hasn’t exactly been Bo Ryan’s style.

The Badgers’ defense will be up to its usual imposing standards, and the offense will still be in very good hands thanks to the return of Jordan Taylor.

The Wisconsin point guard was dazzling as a junior, leading the team in scoring with 18.1 points a game, while posting a breathtaking assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.8.

He won’t be any easier to stop in his final season in Madison, and the Badgers won’t be any easier to beat, either.

Verdict: Too Low

13. Kansas

Given Kansas’ extensive NBA draft losses (Josh Selby and both Morris twins), some question how the Jayhawks can still merit such a high preseason ranking.

However, Bill Self’s always-strong recruiting has kept the cupboard well-stocked in Lawrence, and Kansas again has one of the most talented rosters in the Big 12.

Point guard Tyshawn Taylor, now a senior, gets one more chance to prove to NBA scouts that he belongs at the next level. After showing tantalizing flashes of talent over three seasons, this may be the year Taylor puts it together.

He’ll have plenty of help inside from erstwhile sixth man Thomas Robinson, a 6’9”, 237-lb junior who’s more than ready to take over as the primary post scoring option.

Verdict: Just Right

12. Baylor

If there was anything to learn from the successes of BYU in the regular season and UConn in the postseason, it was the difference that can be made by a single elite player. Whatever else Baylor has, it should have that difference-maker in Perry Jones.

When the 6’11” Jones—13.9 points, 7.2 rebounds as a freshman—opted to stay in Waco for a second season, he instantly gave the Bears a frontcourt that rivals the best in the country.

The loss of LaceDarius Dunn’s scoring will take its toll, but the team may actually improve, as other players will take the shots that had all gone to Dunn.

Verdict: Too Low

11. Pittsburgh

As with so many of their conference brethren, the question for the Panthers is not whether they can play defense—a resounding yes—but whether they can score enough to beat another good defensive team.

The return of star guard Ashton Gibbs helps, but Pitt lost an awful lot of talent from an offense that wasn’t world-beating last year.

Gary McGhee’s post presence is gone, and while freshman Khem Birch has length, his offensive game is raw.

More crucially, the Panthers have to replace the playmaking and versatility of assists leader Brad Wanamaker. Even if Gibbs moves to the point, Pitt will suffer a drop-off in Wanamaker’s absence.

Verdict: Too High

10. Florida

The Gators are going to have one of the nation’s top backcourts, without a doubt. Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, already a very dangerous pairing, are joined by dynamic (and, at 6’3”, taller) freshman Brad Beal.

However, the frontcourt is still under construction, with Patric Young (who scored just 3.3 points a game last season) expected to step into a starring role. Until the inside game comes together, the Gators ought to be several spots lower in the rankings.

Verdict: Too High

9. Memphis

Memphis' elevated ranking may seem surprising after last year's first-round NCAA exit. However, Josh Pastner’s Tigers are a far better team than they were at this time last year.

Memphis goes from one of the youngest teams in the nation to a battle-tested group that returns all its key pieces. The high-energy backcourt of Chris Crawford and Will Barton highlights an athletic lineup that will keep the tempo fast on both ends of the floor.

Verdict: Just Right

8. Louisville

Louisville was a solid 25-10 last season before melting down against Morehead State, and much of the squad returns for another go-round. Most crucially, Peyton Siva will again be a top-flight point guard after averaging 5.3 assists per game in 2010-11.

That said, a Cardinals offense that struggled to find a go-to option last season loses two of its top four scorers in Preston Knowles and Terrence Jennings. Without an overpowering defensive presence, Rick Pitino’s squad will still be a good team—but not this good.

Verdict: Too High

7. Vanderbilt

There isn’t much room to move up from No. 7, but Vanderbilt has so much talent returning that they deserve to make that move. SEC scoring champ John Jenkins is back, as is virtually every core member of last year’s 23-11 squad.

With defensive stopper Festus Ezeli down low and high-scoring Jeffery Taylor to complement Jenkins, Vandy has more depth and experience than any Commodores team in memory.

They don’t need to climb by much, but Vanderbilt ought to trade places with the talented but less-experienced team above them.

Verdict: Too Low

6. Duke

Replacing departed players has rarely been a problem for Coach K’s teams, but Duke loses a pair of four-year stalwarts in Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith (not to mention No. 1 NBA draft pick Kyrie Irving).

The assorted Plumlee brothers—freshman Marshall joins returnees Mason and Miles—will hold down the middle, but the backcourt will still be learning its trade when the season starts.

Freshman Austin Rivers is one of the jewels of this year’s recruiting class, but it’s tough to pick a very good freshman over very good upperclassmen. After losing all of their double-digit scorers from a year ago, No. 6 is one spot too high—even for the Blue Devils.

Verdict: Too High

5. Syracuse

The loss of center Rick Jackson is a blow to Syracuse, but the 2-3 zone Jim Boeheim has ridden to so many victories means that an elite big man is less essential for the Orange.

Just as importantly, the rest of an outstanding squad returns for 2011-12.

Scoop Jardine will battle for All-America recognition at the point, and small forward Kris Joseph isn’t far behind him.

As one of the few Big East teams with an offense to match its defense, Syracuse could stand to move even higher (at least by overtaking their less consistent rivals at No. 4).

Verdict: Too Low

4. Connecticut

It’s hard to argue with the defending national champs' lofty ranking, especially when they return almost every key player and add stud recruit Andre Drummond.

Even the loss of Kemba Walker seems manageable for a team with such high potential.

However, as brilliant as the Huskies were in tournament play in 2010-11, they were more vulnerable in the regular season. They could easily put it together in March once again, but they’re going to be sufficiently beatable until then—and should drop at least one spot in these rankings.

Verdict: Too High

3. Ohio State

The Buckeyes disappointed in last spring’s tournament, but an overall record of 34-3 is tough to argue with. David Lighty is not a trivial loss in the backcourt, but the rest of the Ohio State core returns, a year tougher and a year more experienced.

With a leading Wooden Award contender in Jared Sullinger, surrounded by strong complementary players like impressive sophomore PG Aaron Craft, this will be a formidable team in 2011-12.

They don’t quite have the star power to outdo the two teams above them, but the Buckeyes will be a favorite for the Final Four once again.

Verdict: Just Right

2. Kentucky

If the lone team ahead of them weren’t so overwhelming, Kentucky would have a good case for the top spot.

Another super John Calipari recruiting class joins a couple of standout players—highlighted by likely All-American Terrence Jones at PF—from a Final Four squad.

The addition of high-powered freshmen like Marquis Teague and big Anthony Davis would have given the Wildcats a Final Four shot even without substantial returning talent. As things stand, another Final Four is the minimum to meet expectations in Lexington.

Verdict: Just Right

1. North Carolina

The most talented team doesn’t always win, but it’s not a bad place to start. North Carolina returns every starter from last year’s ACC champs—and that team arguably underachieved with an Elite Eight finish.

With potential All-Americans like Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall, not to mention one of the nation’s top defensive players in John Henson, it’ll be a shock if the Tar Heels don’t earn a No. 1 seed and, at worst, a Final Four berth.

Anything short of a national title will be a disappointment for Roy Williams’ squad.

Verdict: Just Right