Nebraska Football: Previewing the Michigan State Game

Michigan State Spartans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska—12:00 PM Eastern

TV Coverage: ABC/ESPN

Michigan State travels to Lincoln on Saturday to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. This game could be the most important game of the year for both teams.

If Michigan State wins, they would be two games up on Nebraska and hold the tiebreaker. So essentially, Michigan State would have to lose three of their four remaining games (the Spartans play Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern) for Nebraska to win the Legends division.

That is not going to happen.

If Nebraska wins, they would be tied with Michigan State for the lead in the division. Nebraska is in a must-win situation on Saturday.

The two teams have taken different paths to this matchup. Nebraska had a bye week followed by a trip to Minnesota, where the Cornhuskers easily defeated the Gophers 41-14. Michigan State is coming off of three difficult games. The Spartans beat Ohio State 10-7, beat Michigan 28-14 and beat Wisconsin, 37-31, on the last play of the game.

Can Michigan State win four tough games in a row? The odds makers do not think so. Nebraska is a four-point favorite in the game against Michigan State.

Some analysts who follow the Nebraska football team think Nebraska may have been hiding some of their plays on offense. If that is the case, this is the week when Coach Bo Pelini will open up the playbook and do everything possible to win this game.

If Nebraska loses, all of their preseason goals will be unachievable. The Cornhuskers will play the rest of the season for a trip to the Outback Bowl or the Gator Bowl.

This is much different than playing for a trip to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game.

Nebraska has history on their side. Nebraska has never lost to Michigan State.

The two teams have played five times, and the Cornhuskers have won them all. The last meeting was in the 2003 Alamo Bowl, when Bo Pelini took over as the interim coach and his Cornhuskers beat Michigan State 17-3.

Nebraska will try to make it six in a row over the Spartans on Saturday.

Here is a how I see this game breaking down...

Nebraska’s Offense vs. Michigan State’s Defense

Nebraska Total Offense Ranking: No. 35

Michigan State Total Defense Ranking: No. 2

Nebraska’s offense has been improving since their beat down in Wisconsin.

Nebraska has decided to feature the run out of the pistol formation, and it seems to be working. Running back Rex Burkhead has been the star of the Nebraska offense.

Burkhead rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown against a stingy Ohio State defense. Last week, he rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown in only three quarters of play against Minnesota. This week, Burkhead will once again be the focal point for the Cornhuskers’ offense.

Taylor Martinez has one job to do Saturday: He must take care of the ball.

If Martinez’s fumble problems return or if he throws multiple interceptions in the game, Nebraska will find themselves in a hole they cannot dig out of. Recently, Martinez has been much better at securing the ball, and he must do it in this game if Nebraska is to have any chance at winning.

Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the country. The Spartans are ranked No. 2 in the country against the pass and No. 8 against the run. Michigan State has arguably the best defensive front four in the country.

The Spartans are led by defensive tackle Jerel Worthy and defensive end Will Gholston. Nebraska’s offensive line must figure out a way to keep these two players out of their backfield in order to keep their offense moving forward, and not backwards.

Edge

On paper, Michigan State has a huge edge in this matchup. Luckily for the Cornhuskers, the games are not played on paper.

Nebraska will have a difficult time putting up points against the nation’s No. 2-ranked defense, but do not under estimate Burkhead. He has been able to run on good Oklahoma and Texas defenses in the past. I think he will find some holes in the Michigan State defense as well.

I still give the edge in this matchup to the Spartans.

Nebraska’s Defense vs. Michigan State’s Offense

Nebraska Total Defense Rank: No. 42

Michigan State Total Offense Rank: No. 66

Nebraska has been searching for the right combination of players on defense in 2011, and I think at the halfway point of the season they may have finally found something.

The Nebraska secondary has been their weak spot for much of the season, but the addition of cornerback Stanley Jean-Baptiste may be just what the Blackshirts needed.

With Jean-Baptiste teamed with preseason All-American cornerback Alfonso Dennard, Nebraska has two cornerbacks who can stop opposing wide receivers. Safeties Austin Cassidy and Daimion Stafford have also played well of late.

If Nebraska is going to win this game, they must be able to create some pressure on Michigan State's quarterback.

Last week, Nebraska was unable to get a sack on the Minnesota quarterback. Michigan State’s offensive line is much better than the Minnesota offensive line that the Blackshirts faced last week. The lost of preseason All-American defensive tackle Jared Crick will show up this week more than it did last week.

A presence like Crick could have helped the Blackshirts get pressure on Michigan State’s immobile quarterback. Nebraska will rotate Chase Rome, Terrance Moore and Thaddeus Randle at Crick’s defensive tackle position. I believe Nebraska will use many blitz packages this week that they have not used this year to try and generate some pressure on the Michigan State quarterback.

Michigan State has star players at each of the skill positions. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is the most seasoned quarterback in the Big Ten Conference. He is a senior and brings great leadership to the Spartans team. Cousins has thrown 11 touchdowns this year and only four interceptions.

Michigan State has two good running backs. The Spartans will rotate running backs Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell in their backfield. Baker has 434 yards rushing and two touchdowns, while Bell has 374 yards rushing and six touchdowns on the season.

There is no doubt what Nebraska’s cornerback Alfonso Dennard’s job will be Saturday—it will be to shut down Michigan State’s star wide receiver B.J. Cunningham. Cunningham is the all-time leading receiver for the Spartans, and Michigan State has had a number of great wide receivers before (such as Plaxico Burress, Andre Rison, Charles Rogers and Mark Ingram, Sr. to name a few).

Edge

I give the edge in this matchup to Michigan State. Nebraska has not been playing as well defensively this year as they have in the past under Pelini.

Nebraska must change their defensive philosophy and use more blitzes to create pressure, or it may be a long day for the Blackshirts. I believe Pelini will have something up his sleeve to slow down the Spartans. I just do not know if it is enough to keep them from scoring.

Special Teams

Nebraska’s special teams have played well this year.

Kicker/punter Brett Maher started off the season making every kick he attempted. His hot start has cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but he is still good enough to win this game if called upon in the final seconds.

The return game for Nebraska has been a pleasant surprise for the Cornhuskers in 2011. Kick and punt returner Ameer Abdullah is ranked No. 4 in the country in return yards. I do not think Michigan State will kick him the ball on Saturday and allow Nebraska to set up with good field position.

Michigan State kicker Dan Conroy has converted six of nine field goals this season, with a long of 50 yards. He has the leg to make a long field goal if called upon.

Nick Hill will be returning kicks for Michigan State on Saturday. He is not nearly as good as Abdullah, but he has averaged 23.6 yards per return.

Edge

Nebraska has a clear advantage is the special teams. I think this game will come down to special teams play, and that is good news for the Cornhuskers.

Prediction

A lot of people do not believe Nebraska has a chance in this game.

Just look at how the two teams played against Wisconsin: Nebraska was blown out by the Badgers, while Michigan State beat them. Someone knows something about this game that I do not know.

All of the numbers points to Michigan State winning this game, but the odds makers in Las Vegas have Nebraska as a four point favorite. It does not make sense, right? When it does not make sense, I tend to go with the people who know a lot more about this than I do, and that is the odds makers.

Nebraska wins this game in a close matchup 24-20.