World Series 2011: Why Texas Rangers Should Go for It All in Game 5, Not Game 4

Don’t get me wrong, tonight's Game 4 would certainly help the Rangers’ chances and I think they probably will win, considering the various matchups.

But if the Rangers don’t win Game 5, regardless of the outcome of tonight's game, they’re sunk.

Obviously, if the Rangers lose both Games 4 and 5, St. Louis wins the World Series, 4-1. If the Rangers win Game 4 but lose Game 5, they would have to win both Games 6 and 7 in St. Louis to win the Series.

Winning one game of two up there (which they would still have to do even if they win Games 4 and 5) would be a tall enough order, but I would consider winning two games in a row in St. Louis without Josh Hamilton at 100 percent to be almost insurmountable.

St. Louis would have so many advantages if it wins Game 5, even if they lose Game 4. The Cards would have a lead, momentum, home-field advantage plus one and would be playing the remainder of the series by the National League rules that accentuate Tony La Russa’s distinct managerial advantage.

I would give St. Louis about a 90-percent chance of winning the series if they go back to St. Louis with a 3-2 edge. Even higher if that victory comes in Game 5 instead of Game 4.

The Rangers would desperately need the momentum of a victory in Game 5 to carry them to a victory in St. Louis. Game 5 is also a good opportunity for the Rangers, as it could very well be C.J. Wilson’s last start with the team.

Bottom line: If you’re the Rangers, try to win Game 4, but go all in for Game 5.