NFL Predictions Week 7: Why Redskins, Broncos and Bucs All Cover Small Spreads

This weekend’s NFL slate features a grand total of zero games where both teams are above .500.

Now that is some serious parity…or a reminder there are quite a few bad teams in the NFL.

That’s why I’m blown away that these three teams aren’t favored by more:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Washington Redskins +1 @ Carolina Panthers

Everyone is afraid of John Beck vs. Cam Newton but if you break down every other facet of the game…you’ll see a bunch of check marks next to the ‘Skins.

Better run and pass defense…check.

Better coaching staff…check.

Better running game…check. (The Panthers are incredible inconsistent in this facet despite having the more talented backs.)

More experience, more talent and better coaching at every position but one. Sometimes it’s that simple.

Key Trends:

Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Carolina.

Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Denver Broncos +1 @ Miami Dolphins

Tim Tebow is going to be playing in front of a home crowd, so disregard the fact Miami is the home team.

With thousands on hand to celebrate the ’09 Gators team, expect Tebow to give them a show on Sunday. He may not throw the prettiest ball, but he makes plays with his feet and fires up his teammates to play hard like no other player.

Coming off a bye, Tebow has had two weeks to prepare for Miami, and two weeks to get comfortable in a John Fox led offense.

The Dolphins are hopeless and their players are starting to quit on lame duck coach Tony Sparano.

Key Trends:

Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Dolphins are 6-29 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite.

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The NFL’s annual game in London means both teams don’t have any sort of home-field advantage. The Bucs got to London a full four days before the Bears and they believe the ability to adjust to the different time zone will give them a big advantage.

I think Josh Freeman can expose the young safeties of Chicago and the Bucs stout front-four is going to be chasing around Jay Cutler.

The Bears played their best game of the season against the Vikings, which means this incredibly inconsistent team is due for a let down.

Key Trends:

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.

Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.