BCS Standings 2011: Why 1-Loss Oregon Has No Shot at National Title

For Oregon fans hoping that their team will make it back to the National Championship Game, history is an enemy.

In 2006, No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 2 Michigan on the final game of the regular season to guarantee a spot in the National Championship.

Ohio State finished that game as the only undefeated team in a BCS conference, so their place in the National Championship Game was not in question.

Michigan entered that game undefeated. When they lost a relatively close game in Columbus, there were a lot of people who thought that the National Championship Game should be a rematch between the two Big Ten Rivals.

There was some precedent for that, as Florida and Florida State were paired off in what worked out as a National Championship Game following the 1996 season. Florida State had beaten Florida in the regular season, and they were matched up in the Sugar Bowl, which Florida won.

But that was before the BCS. In other words, while it worked out this way, it wasn't a National Championship Game. Had No. 2 Arizona State beaten Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, then they would likely have gotten the votes (assuming Florida State still lost.)

A rematch in 2006 would have been a true National Championship Game. That didn't happen, and when the bowls were over, the voters were patting themselves on the back.

USC handily beat Michigan in that year's Rose Bowl, while Florida destroyed Ohio State to win the National Championship.

So, recent history would trend away from a rematch.

Now, as it stands, the National Championship Game will feature the winner of the LSU vs. Alabama game on November 5, and the Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State game on December 3. If those two teams go undefeated, that's what the National Championship Game should be.

However, Oregon needs a lot more help. They will need all of those teams to lose at least once, as well as the other undefeated teams that are ahead of them (with the possible exception of Boise State), and Arkansas probably needs to lose again. 

Now, some of those teams will lose, as they play each other. Except when the season is over, Oregon can't have two things.

One, they can't be in a position where LSU is vying for a bid with them. Actually, a situation where Alabama is undefeated and LSU and Oregon are the top two candidates to play them is quite interesting. Would they avoid the Alabama vs. LSU rematch, or give Oregon a nod over the team that beat them?

That scenario was in part laid out by Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports.

Oregon needs a ton of help for this to happen. The most likely scenario is for Alabama to go undefeated, and every other team ahead of them to lose twice.

That opening week convincing loss to LSU will come back to doom the Ducks. There are far too many "ifs" and hopes for Oregon to get a spot in the National Championship Game again. Remember, it will be hard enough for them to win the rest of their games.

That's hard enough. But when that's the easiest of several things that need to happen, your chances are just slim.