BCS Rankings: 18 College Football Games That Just Got a Lot More Meaningful

The initial BCS rankings released this past Sunday night give us our first glimpse at the map that outlines the sketchy path to both the four BCS bowls and the BCS championship game.

This very intriguing picture will continue to clarify as each of the next seven weeks play out and the real contenders separate themselves from the rest of the pack on the field of play.

But, with a selection system based ultimately on mathematical formulas the road to the BCS title game is not as elementary as going undefeated. 

This means that in reality the list of “key games” to making the championship include a host of contests that look, on the surface, like nothing more than contests that will decide something far less than who holds the crystal pigskin aloft this coming January.

 The following slideshow pinpoints a total of 18 contests that are vital to who will mathematically achieve a BCS championship bid.  We’ll begin our survey with six blatantly obvious match-ups of huge significance and then we’ll reel off 12 key clashes that are much more subtle (at least on the surface).

LSU at Alabama

This November 5 match-up will garner honors as the regular season “game of the year” if both LSU and Alabama can make it to Tuscaloosa unscathed.

With both squads having a bye-week scheduled immediately preceding the blockbuster clash; perfection means that the Tigers must best No. 20 Auburn this Saturday in Baton Rouge while the Tide must take care of business at home against Tennessee.

The defending champs and the Vols are both scrappy enough to keep these games interesting but you have to think that LSU and Alabama both have every reasonable chance of triumph.

So then, it will be the Tigers vs. Tide at Bryant Denny for way more than just the SEC West divisional crown.

Yes, this game will mean an SEC title game berth, a BCS bid and if they can win all the way out a shot at another BCS crown for the SEC.

If either of these teams completely runs the tables there is no way another undefeated contender could knock them out of the championship game (i.e. a perfect Stanford, Boise State, Wisconsin, etc.)

This game is so huge it can barely fit on this slide.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

The 2011 edition of Bedlam could well be the pinnacle of the 105 year history of the series between the Cowboys and Sooners.

Yes, if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both achieve perfection then the season finale (December 3 in Stillwater) betwixt the two could perhaps trump the significance of the Alabama vs. LSU clash a month earlier.

The reason for this bold statement is that without a Big 12 championship game the winner of this game (again, if both are unblemished) has a very direct path to the BCS title game (it seems logical to assert that only LSU/Alabama could be assured of more BCS points if undefeated).

So, it all comes down to the Sooners and the Cowboys both winning-out to reach this game.

For Oklahoma that means beating a young Texas Tech team this Saturday night in Norman, besting upstart Kansas State on the road on October 29, beating Texas A&M in College Station on November 5, beating Baylor in Waco on November 19 and then besting Iowa State in Norman on November 26.

For the Cowboys it’s beating Missouri in Columbia this coming Saturday afternoon, beating Baylor at home in Stillwater on October 29, besting No. 11 Kansas State at T. Boone Pickens on November 5, scoring a win in Lubbock over Texas Tech on November 12 and then beating Iowa State in Ames on November 18.

Interesting, Oklahoma State will have a bye the weekend before Bedlam.

If all the “ifs” and “buts” line up the clash between the Cowboys and Sooners could be as big of a regular season finale as we’ve enjoyed in years.

The SEC Title Game

These next four contests are really simple because any team that goes undefeated in the regular season in the SEC, ACC and now Pac-12 and Big Ten will have to win a conference championship game to remain perfect and pure enough to be betrothed with the BCS title game.

As such, these title games become opportunities for other unscathed teams to jump up the BCS rankings and achieve a BCS championship bid that otherwise looked highly unlikely.

First on the list is the SEC Championship which is slated for December 3, 2011 in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta and if all the stars align correctly either LSU or Alabama will be there to defend their perfect regular season record with only a game against the SEC East champ (perhaps South Carolina or Georgia) standing between them and the BCS title game.

The Pac-12 Title Game

The only way this game affects who goes to the national championship is if the sole undefeated Pac-12 team, Stanford, wins out (unless of course only one team goes undefeated from a national standpoint and a one-loss team makes the title game).

Not only must Stanford win out, they must get some help from some of their friends to boost up their BCS rankings if the winner of the Alabama/LSU and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State games both go undefeated (more on that later).

The singular Cardinal has to complete the following “to-do” list to make the first ever Pac-12 championship with no losses; vs. Washington, at USC, at Oregon State, vs. Oregon, vs. Cal and vs. Notre Dame.

If Stanford is successful with these tasks then they enter the conference title game (slated for Friday, December 2 at the home of the Pac-12 team with the best league record) with the BCS title game in the balance.

The Big Ten Title Game

The same scenario for Stanford applies to Wisconsin who is the only undefeated team left in the Big Ten.

In order for Wisconsin to achieve total regular season perfection they must survive games at Michigan State, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue, at Minnesota, at Illinois and then vs. Penn State.

If this all goes off without a hitch then the Badgers would meet the winner of the Legends division for more than just the first ever Big Ten title won via a championship game, yes, Wisconsin (again, with a little help to overcome higher and still perfect BCS teams) would be playing for a right to play in the BCS title game in New Orleans.

The Big Ten Championship is scheduled for Saturday night, December 3 in Indianapolis.

The ACC Championship

Representing the last of both the obvious and conference championship scenarios, the ACC title game plays into the BCS title game equation only if Clemson runs the tables on the remainder of their regular schedule AND gains enough BCS points to overtake whoever is still undefeated above them in the rankings.

Clemson must tick off the following victory boxes to make it to the ACC title game perfectly; vs. North Carolina, at Georgia Tech, vs. Wake Forest, at NC State and at South Carolina.

You have to assume that Clemson and Stanford would have the steepest slope to climb from a BCS point standpoint to reach the BCS if they win out and win their respective title games.

The ACC Championship is scheduled for Saturday, December 3 in Charlotte NC.

Arkansas vs. South Carolina

To kick-off our dozen less obvious contests with BCS meaning we offer up the November 5 meeting between Arkansas and South Carolina in Fayetteville.

And, we begin with this game because it has BCS championship implications for two teams in two different conferences.

First, the game has value to LSU if Arkansas wins because the Razorbacks (other than Alabama) are the Tigers highest ranked opponent remaining on the schedule in 2011.

Simply put, the higher ranked Arkansas is when LSU plays them in the finale (again, if the Tigers are perfect and have already knocked off the Tide) the better it is for LSU’s BCS point totals.

Really, this point is less weighty in the case of LSU and Alabama because they are in a situation where if they simply win out (and are victorious in the conference title game) then they should be a shoe in for the BCS title tame.

The second and perhaps more crucial reason that the Razorbacks vs. Gamecocks game has BCS meaning is from the perspective of Clemson who desperately needs to boost their BCS standing (they are currently No. 7) if they want to go to the BCS title game (even if they’re undefeated).

 South Carolina is Clemson’s most attractive opponent that is left on their schedule (at least for now) and having the Gamecocks come into the in-state rivalry finale ranked and perhaps previously victorious over the higher ranked Razorbacks would be huge from a point standpoint.

Auburn at Georgia

In another clash that perhaps has less meaning than some of the other match-ups on this list (due to Alabama’s inherent BCS strength) is the November 12 game pitting Auburn against Georgia in Athens.

An Auburn road win would plausibly provide aid to Alabama who has the defending champs left as their most attractive post-LSU opponent.

Again, I’m not seeing a perfect Crimson Tide needing much point help in the BCS standings but the better Auburn does the more valuable they become to Alabama as a season finale foe.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri

Switching over to the ever morphing Big 12 conference we see the October 29 battle between outgoing Texas A&M and presumably also leaving Missouri in College Station.

The BCS repercussions for this game indirectly affect two fellow (for now) Big 12 teams, namely Oklahoma and Kansas State.

The Sooners are a lot like LSU and Alabama meaning if they win out they won’t need a huge helping hand in the BCS rankings but, that said, they could still slightly benefit from an Aggie victory over Mizzou making A&M a more valuable opponent when Oklahoma faces them on November 5.

The team needing more help (and lots of it even if they win out) is Kansas State who will need every point they can get to move up the BCS rankings from where they currently sit at No. 11 (behind one loss teams Arkansas and Oregon).

Again, it’s pretty simple, an Aggie win over Missouri makes A&M more of a help to the Wildcats when they travel to College Station on November 12.

Of course, this having any consequence at all would mean that K-State has already knocked off both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State which is not a very likely scenario, but this is still college football where anything can happen.

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma

If Kansas State survives Kansas this coming Saturday in Lawrence and Oklahoma handles Texas Tech in Norman than this game suddenly becomes the battle of two top ranked, undefeated teams from the same conference.

The game is scheduled for Saturday, October 29 in Manhattan and will be colossal for whoever pulls off a win.

For Oklahoma, who will be expected to win and favored, it means one more test passed (and provides a BCS points boost, remember they’re No. 3 and beating No. 11 will be huge) and for Kansas State it would mean that they are really “for real” and they’ll suddenly become an intriguing part of the BCS equation and move up rapidly).

Kansas State at Oklahoma State

This game occurs in Week 10 (November 5) and falls directly after the Oklahoma at Kansas State affair and it provides value regardless of whether or not the Wildcats have succumbed to the mighty Sooners.

Why?

Well, obviously if K-State has shocked Oklahoma (and the Cowboys have taken care of business at Missouri and then at home against Baylor) this suddenly becomes the unexpected, unscripted “game of the season” in the Big 12 and could mean a BCS bid for the winner.

And, even if the Wildcats are a one loss team coming into this game they provide great value as an opponent to Oklahoma State because they would more than likely still be in the BCS rankings with their only loss being to a top three opponent.

At No. 4 in the BCS sweepstakes, the Cowboys will need to enhance their BCS points anyway possible and though the computers love OSU (five out of six hardboards have them at No. 1) a win over a ranked opponent certainly won’t hurt.

Wisconsin at Michigan State

Switching gears to the expanded Big Ten the first obvious selection in games with BCS meaning has to be this Saturday’s showcase showdown in East Lansing between Wisconsin and Michigan State.

Though this game has all the obvious implications and could be a preview of the first ever Big Ten championship game, Michigan State offers the Badgers their only guaranteed opportunity to play a team that is BCS ranked.

And to a team that is No. 6 in the BCS standings and will need a huge boost in points even if they win out (remember Oklahoma/Oklahoma State and LSU/Alabama have an advantage from the start) this is HUGE.

Yes, No. 23 ranked Illinois and No. 21 ranked Penn State are still on Wisconsin’s horizon but as those two games wrap up the season either team could be out of the rankings completely by then (or they could be higher).

Illinois vs. Michigan

Another contest in the Big Ten worth looking at (from a Wisconsin point gathering standpoint) is the November 12 meeting between No. 18 Michigan and No. 23 Illinois in Champaign.

If the Badgers can remain loss-less then they need the Illini to beat Michigan in order to make Illinois a more attractive foe from a points total.

Yes, as we explained above, Illinois needs to be ranked when perfect Wisconsin meets them and beating Michigan would be just the ticket; and remember, Wisconsin doesn’t face the Wolverines in the regular season.

No currently undefeated BCS teams need mathematical help more than Wisconsin, Clemson and Stanford (in that order).

Penn State vs. Nebraska

The November 12 clash between No. 13 Nebraska and No. 21 Penn State has precisely the same kind of repercussions for Wisconsin as does the Michigan vs. Illinois game played on the same day.

The Badgers need Penn State to win as many games as possible before they meet up in Madison in the season finale and the Nittany Lions icing the Cornhuskers would be a massive contribution to that mission.

Oregon at Washington

From a Pac-12 perspective, it’s fairly obvious that the Oregon at Stanford game on November 12 is destined to be the most meaningful regular season game in the conference (assuming the Cardinal keeps winning including against Washington this weekend).

Staying with that assumption and remember that Stanford is the lowest ranked undefeated conference leader (other than Kansas State) in the initial BCS rankings (meaning they need lots of points help) the game that may help the Cardinal the most is the November 5 Ducks at Huskies affair.

If Oregon can manage a win over Washington then they come into the show down with Stanford the following weekend a one loss team (assuming they’ve knocked off Colorado and Washington State previously) and ranked, at minimum, No. 10 in the BCS.

Assuming all this plays out as orchestrated this makes a potential Stanford victory over the Ducks even bigger and could possibly be the key to the Cardinal jumping over Clemson and Wisconsin in the BCS standings (if everyone is still blameless by that point).

Notre Dame vs. USC

This weekend’s USC at Notre Dame game has exactly the same kind of significance for Stanford’s BCS title hopes as does the Oregon at Washington episode.

A Notre Dame victory over USC (and the Trojans are the Irish’s most attractive opponent moving forward) could perhaps give Notre Dame the firepower to begin to be part of the BCS rankings conversation and if the Golden Domers could squeeze in then they provide a huge plus for the Cardinal as an adversary.

Yes, Stanford’s regular season finale is against Notre Dame at home and if the Irish could achieve a BCS ranking then suddenly they become just the kind of bird feed that the Cardinal would need to further enhance its BCS standing.

Again, we’re assuming more than we really should…perfection by both squads from now until then.

SMU at Southern Miss

Though it’s nearly impossible to consider the Houston Cougars as a candidate for anything more than a C-USA title and a good bowl game the Cougars are just the type of team that could be a realistic part of the eternal “BCS Buster” conversation.

In order for this to kick-off the Cougars would need to run the tables which would mean winning remaining games vs. Marshall, vs. Rice, at UAB, at Tulane, vs. SMU, at Tulsa and then the conference championship game.

The most alluringly attractive opponent left for Houston is SMU who garnered enough votes to technically grab the No. 29 spot in both the latest AP and USA Today polls.

Therefore, if the Mustangs can win every game on their slate until November 19 when they face Houston in the Bayou City then there is every chance that they will be ranked which will represent the Cougars only ranked opponent on the 2011 season.

And so, the SMU at 5-1 Southern Miss game, scheduled for this Saturday in Hattiesburg becomes huge to the Cougars because it is arguably the Mustangs toughest game remaining this season.

If all the stars align, and SMU is ranked, Houston beats them and wins out (including the conference championship which can’t be a rematch against the Mustangs because they play in the same division as UH) then there is an outside chance that the Cougars become the first ever C-USA team to make the BCS.

How could it happen?

Well, they’d have to get an at-large bid which would mean Boise State loses at least one game and the BCS conferences have one perfect (or one loss ) team and then a bunch of teams with two or more losses.

TCU vs. BYU

Boise State’s best case scenario for the postseason seems to be another BCS bowl as they don’t play anyone who could boost their point total enough to overtake an undefeated team from the SEC, Big 12, Big 10 or ACC conferences (unless of course the situation presented at the end of the Houston slide plays out and a bunch of teams crash and burn in the next seven weeks).

A quick glance at the Broncos remaining schedule shows games vs. Air Force, at UNLV, vs. TCU, at San Diego State, vs. Wyoming and vs. New Mexico.

With this in mind the obvious biggest challenge for the Broncos remaining in 2011 is TCU who is a two loss team who needs to pad their resume in order to become a tastier opponent for Boise State on November 12.

The best opportunity for TCU to amp up their point value as a potential prey for the Broncos is this coming a Week 9 (Friday, October 28) showdown with BYU in Forth Worth. 

The Cougars are similarly a two loss team (defeats are to BCS teams Texas and Utah) and a TCU win would absolutely be a help to Boise State’s standing in the BCS (if they beat the Frogs and win out which is a fairly realistic projection).