UFC 137: Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit Decoded

Dana White, via UFC.com, recently said of former WEC Welterweight Champion, Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit, “I honestly don’t think that people are giving this kid the credit that he deserves.” 

Condit has been called in to replace former Strikeforce Welterweight Champ Nick Diaz in a bout against the best welterweight on earth, George “Rush” St-Pierre. 

St-Pierre himself has said that Carlos poses problems that he has not seen before. 

Does Carlos Condit belong in the ring with the seemingly unstoppable St-Pierre?  How does Condit measure up against the UFC Champion’s most recent competition? 

What unique challenges was St-Pierre referring to?  We’ll turn to the data at FightMetric.com to get some insight into these questions.

Baseline

FightMetric.com publishes a number of career statistics and attributes for fighters. 

I’ve taken these values for St-Pierre’s last five opponents and averaged them to see generate a baseline value against which to compare Condit’s career statistics. 

We’ll also take a look at how Condit measures up against each of St-Pierre’s last five opponents, Jake Shields, Josh Koshcheck, Dan Hardy, Thiago Alves and BJ Penn.

The career statistics and attributes we’ll be looking at, and the average of these values for GSP’s last five opponents are as follows: 

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	2.14

Note that Condit beats the average value for St-Pierre’s last five opponents in seven out of nine categories.  How does this compare with those opponents?  Let’s find out.

Jake Shields

Jake Shields, former Strikeforce Champion and world class grappler, lost a lopsided decision to GSP in his second UFC outing. 

St-Pierre’s striking was simply too much and Jake couldn’t get the fight to the ground.  How does Carlos Condit measure up against Shields?

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	Shields Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	72	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	2.22	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	35%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	1.73	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	57%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	3.77	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4	42%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2	36%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	1.7	2.14
Total Number of Stats Better than Avg		4	7

Jake beat the average of GSP’s last five opponents in four of the nine categories vs. Condit’s seven of nine. 

Condit is a much better striker than Shields: He’s more accurate, lands more, is harder to hit, absorbs fewer big shot and has the longest reach of any of St-Pierre’s last five opponents.

In fact, he is the only one of these men to equal the champion’s 76-inch reach.  Condit shoots less than Shields but lands more of those that he attempts. 

The Takedown Accuracy value can be a bit misleading as we’ll see with Thiago Alves.  For now, it’s important to note the relationship between Takedown Average and Takedown Accuracy. 

Jake has a higher Takedown Average but a lower Takedown Accuracy than Condit.  Because he attempts more takedowns he lands more, but misses enough to lower his average. 

This is similar to baseball.  The guys who set records stealing bases also get tagged out at base more than most.  

Once on the ground Condit appears to be much more active than Shields, attempting more submissions every 15 minutes than the former Strikeforce champion. 

As with reach, Condit has a more active submission game than any of GSP’s last five opponents.

Josh Koscheck

Koscheck, a great wrestler with real pop in his punches, took a licking against St-Pierre, dropping the decision in their December 2010 fight. 

Still, he was able to take St-Pierre down and, despite being taken down four times himself, proved too difficult for GSP to keep on the ground once there. 

Unfortunately, Georges murdered him in the stand up, swelling Koscheck’s eye shut early in the fight and plumping it for the remaining rounds. 

Cause of death: The Jab. 

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	Kos Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	73	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	1.84	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	37%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	1.99	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	65%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	2.73	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4	54%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2	56%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	0.56	2.14
Total Number of Stats Better than Avg		6	7

Koscheck beats the average in six out of nine categories and has the best strike defense of any of St. Pierre’s last five opponents. At 65 percent, he’s got a four percent edge on Condit as well. 

In light of that, the sight of Josh’s face after GSP got done with him must give Condit’s camp pause. 

Yet, it must not be overlooked that once again St-Pierre enjoyed a three inch reach advantage over a lesser striker and had clearly found a specific hole in Koscheck’s standup. 

Condit’s reach, striking, and submission game may prove a greater threat to GSP than Koscheck’s wrestling.  

Dan Hardy

George St. Pierre wreaked wrestling havoc on Dan Hardy, taking the Outlaw down 11 times, passing 26 times, and attempting six submissions in a five-round mauling. 

Hardy had a puncher’s chance and little else.  Once his back found the mat, he had no chance at all.

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	Hardy Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	74	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	2.11	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	32%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	3.31	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	50%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	0.43	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4	38%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2	31%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	0.43	2.14
Total Number of Stats Better than Avg		1	7

Dan Hardy has the longest reach of St-Pierre’s last five opponents but falls short of the average in all other categories. 

In fact, Hardy is at the bottom of the list in six of the remaining eight categories.  Condit knocked Hardy out in first round of their fight back in March of 2010.  

Thiago Alves

Thiago “Pit Bull” Alves is one of the scariest strikers in the welterweight division.

Nevertheless, when he fought Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight strap on July 11, 2009, St. Pierre demonstrated how elite takedowns can stifle even the best striking game. 

The champion took Alves down 10 times in the five round fight, putting a leash on the Brazillian's devastating Muy Thai.

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	Alves Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	70	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	3.03	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	39%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	2.48	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	63%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	0.84	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4	69%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2	61%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	0.37	2.14
Total Number of Stats Better than Avg		4	7

Alves is one of the two best strikers St-Pierre has faced in his last five fights.  The problem is that Alves is tied for the shortest reach among those fighters. 

Condit suffers from no such disadvantage and is much more accomplished on the ground than the Pit Bull. 

Condit must nonetheless be wary: on paper he is much easier to take down than Alves, something that could cause problems for him in the standup game. 

Alves has the highest Takedown Average of any of St. Pierre’s opponents but this is due to the low number of takedowns he attempts.

Ultimately, Condit is much more well rounded and therefore a greater threat to GSP than Alves.

BJ Penn

BJ “The Prodigy” Penn is another outstanding striker who suffers a significant, six inch, reach deficit to St-Pierre. 

St-Pierre freighted Penn with a smothering top game from under which even Prodigy’s legendary Jiu Jitsu had no answer. 

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	Penn Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	70	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	2.68	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	52%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	2.1	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	60%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	1.44	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4	59%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2	77%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	0.63	2.14
Total Number of Stats Better than Avg		6	7

On paper Penn looks the most like Condit: a good striker with better than average takedowns.  If the fight goes St-Pierre’s way, this is the fight that their matchup will most likely resemble. 

There are two big differences here.  Condit should be much, much easier to take down, if GSP can get inside his range. 

But once there, the numbers would suggest that Condit is a more active threat on the ground than Penn.  

Georges St. Pierre

Sun Tzu once counseled, “The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete.”

Statistic/Attribute	Avg Value	GSP Value	Condit Value
Reach	71.8	76	76
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.376	3.79	2.61
Significant Striking Accuracy	39%	54%	43%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	2.322	1.17	1.66
Significant Strike Defense	59%	75%	61%
Takedown Average	1.842	4.3	1
Takedown Accuracy	52.4	78%	58%
Takedown Defense	52.2	86%	45%
Submission Average	0.738	1.35	2.14
Total Number of Stats Better than Avg		9	7

St-Pierre’s strike and takedown defense are so astounding as to render him virtually invincible. 

Further, his takedowns are so powerful that they actually serve not only as an offensive tactic but a deterrent to his opponent’s striking.  

He will likely come in with a game plan similar to the one Rory MacDonald used against the Natural Born Killer.  He should however, look at Rory’s face after that fight. 

St-Pierre has not faced an opponent as long and tall as Condit, who has a great submission game to boot, since his unanimous decision victory over Jason Miller back in 2005. 

Condit’s array of sweeps and submissions have the ability to turn St-Pierre’s most terrifying weapon, his double-leg takedown into the liability that could result in the upset of the year.

*Note: Fight Metric lists St-Pierre's reach as 76" but I've always thought it was 74." St-Pierre's site on UFC.com does not list his reach. I've used the Fight Metric number for now.