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BCS Rankings Predictions 2011: Forget the Numbers, Who Should Be No. 1?

Jonathan WooOct 16, 2011

The BCS is upon us.

With the most important rankings in college football on the cusp of its release later this evening, there will be endless debate about which team is most worthy of the No. 1 spot.

There will be arguments for LSU. There will be arguments for Alabama. There will be arguments for Oklahoma. There will be arguments for Wisconsin. And no matter which way the story is spun, each program merits an argument for the top ranking in the BCS standings.

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But entertain us for a moment and throw out the BCS computers and get down to the nitty gritty of straight-up statistics and strength of schedule. Which team is most deserving of the top spot in college football?

Let's dive in to the arguments.

LSU:

The Tigers are a perfect 7-0 on the season, with wins over four ranked opponents. Prior to this weekend's slate of games, three of those opponents were still ranked.

LSU's margin of victory in its seven wins is 26.7 points, and it gives up 11.7 points per game. The Tigers are putting up 38.4 points per contest.

The Bayou Bengals have two wins over ranked opponents on the road (Mississippi State, West Virginia), one at home (Florida) and one at a neutral location (Cowboys Stadium vs. Oregon)

SOS rank* is 37th.

Alabama:

The Tide are also a pristine 7-0 with wins over three ranked opponents, one of which was ranked going into the weekend.

Alabama's margin of victory in its seven wins is 32.7 points, while it gives up just seven points per game. The Tide are averaging 39.7 points per game.

The Tide have had four home games, one of which was against ranked opposition (Arkansas). Bama has gone on the road three times, two resulting in wins over ranked teams (Penn State, Florida).

SOS rank* is 29th.

Oklahoma:

The Sooners are 6-0 with crucial wins over two ranked opponents, though Texas was the only one ranked heading into Saturday.

Oklahoma's margin of victory in its six wins is 29.5, giving up 15.8 points per game. The Sooners are picking up 45.3 points per game.

The Sooners have played three games at home, two true road games and one at a neural location (Cotton Bowl vs. Texas)

SOS rank* is 52nd.

Wisconsin:

The Badgers are a perfect 6-0, but claim just one win over a ranked opponent.

Wisconsin's margin of victory through six games is 40.5 points, as it gives up 9.7 points per game. The Badgers are scoring an FBS-best 50.2 points per contest—the highest of the four contenders for the No. 1 rank in the BCS.

All but one of Wisconsin's games have been home matches, with the outlier at a neutral location against Northern Illinois. Its lone ranked win came in Madison against Nebraska.

SOS rank* is 131st.

What it all means

LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Wisconsin have all been impressive so far this season, but only one team can claim the No. 1 spot.

Wisconsin appears to be the odd one out. Despite the Badgers' dominance through their six games, they have not demonstrated that same character on the road against a worthy opponent. Their SOS at 131 certainly hurts them as well.

Offensively, Oklahoma might have of the most impressive units in the country, but its defense cannot hold a candle to the SEC's mightiest. While the Sooners have wins over Florida State and Texas, it may not be enough to jump LSU or Alabama.

Alabama will beat opponents to a pulp via its defense and its run game. The Tide's physicality may be matched by the Tigers, but 'Bama's superior defense, margin of victory and offensive production could tip the scales in its favor.

LSU, meanwhile, have been a force in the Top 25. Its early-season wins over Oregon and West Virginia, both away from Baton Rouge, have resonated throughout college football. Though the Tigers defense is one of the stoutest in the country, their offense is not exactly the definition of prolific. But they are the top-ranked team for a reason.

BCS computers aside, with a harsh gaze at the more tangible statistics and SOS in comparison with one another, Alabama presents the strongest argument to claim the top position in the BCS rankings to be released later tonight.

*All SOS according to realtimerpi.com

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