St. Louis Cardinals: The Odds on Each of Their 25 Players Returning Next Year

As the Cardinals ready themselves to challenge the Texas Rangers in the 2011 World Series, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the team. Albert Pujols will hit the free agent market this off-season, and every team with a thick enough wallet will consider making a run for his services. Perhaps no player in the league is as essential to their team as Pujols is to the Cardinals.

Of course, Pujols is not the only player the Cardinals must consider during the off-season. The team has a wide variety of players, ranging from players coming off their rookie season to journeymen in their 40's, and like every team they must decide who will be part of their 2012 strategy.  

Should Pujols depart St. Louis, the Cardinals will be in the unique spot of considering whether to follow a pennant-winning season with a period of rebuilding. Should Pujols re-sign with St. Louis, the Cardinals will seek to build off their 2011 momentum and reach for the brass ring yet again.

Here we look at each player on the Cardinals 25-man NLCS roster and consider the odds that each will return to the Cardinals big league squad in 2012. 

Lance Berkman

Lance Berkman signed a one year contract with St. Louis to return in 2012. The slugger earned the $12 million payout due to his comeback season in which he batted .301 with 31 home runs and a .959 OPS, a significant improvement from his 2010 numbers (.248, 14, .781).  

If the Cardinals are able to re-sign Albert Pujols, they're counting on Berkman to join Pujols and Holliday in filling the heart of their lineup. If Pujols leaves St. Louis, they'll likely look to Berkman to serve a transitional role while they begin their rebuilding process.

Either way, Berkman and his $12 million contract are not going anywhere by the time the season begins. 

Mitchell Boggs

Mitchell Boggs has been a solid yet unspectacular presence in the bullpen. After showing improvement in both 2009 and 2010, Boggs held steady in 2011, posting an identical wins and losses record and a nearly identical ERA.  

Boggs is eligible for arbitration this off-season. He earned $431,000 last year, and is unlikely to earn too much of a pay raise as a result of arbitration, which means that he is an affordable option for the Cards at middle relief. He is by no means untouchable in the organization, but he is a good value and the team has bigger fish to fry than worrying about an upgrade to Boggs. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 85% 

Chris Carpenter

Nobody wants to see Chris Carpenter leave the Cardinals this off-season. Carpenter has been the team's ace since he first pitched for the team in 2004, winning the Cy Young Award the following season and helping lead the team to its World Series victory in 2006.

As much as the Cardinals want to keep Carpenter in St. Louis, team executives will have to consider letting him go. He is 36 years old, and though he posted a respectable 11-9 record with a 3.45 ERA and 1.256 WHIP, the Cardinals' option on Carpenter calls for him to be paid $15 million in 2012. His performance in 2011 does not justify paying him that much money. The price tag becomes even more unpalatable if the team goes into rebuilding mode.

Still, Carpenter is a valuable pitcher and the Cardinals will want to keep him on their squad for more than sentimental reasons. The likely scenario is that the Cardinals and Carpenter rework his contract to pay him less per year, but add years to his contract, allowing him to pitch in St. Louis for the rest of his career.

If the Cardinals want to reduce his salary too dramatically, however, they run the risk of another team, likely a World Series contender, swooping in and offering him more money.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 75%

Adron Chambers

Adron Chambers was called up late in the 2011 season to fill in a spot in the outfield. He went three for eight at the plate, but did not look great in the field, earning a fielding percentage of .875.  

Chambers is only 25 years old, and he is a top prospect for the team, but he will have to battle to make the big league club at the start of 2012. If players under-perform or suffer injuries, Chambers will be a likely call up mid-season.  

Odds of Returning in 2012: 20%

Allen Craig

2011 seems to have been Allen Craig's breakout year. In 200 at bats, he batted .315 with 11 home runs and a .917 OPS.  The Cardinals are well stocked in the outfield, but Craig showed remarkable versatility last year, playing six different positions. He is still primarily an outfielder, but his ability to fill in all over the diamond makes him an even more valuable commodity.

Craig still has time on his contract before he reaches arbitration, and he offers the promise of strong offensive production at a cheap price. The Cards won't give him up without getting much in return, and if his 2012 season matches his 2011 season, the team may try to lock him up for awhile longer.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 90% 

Daniel Descalso

Daniel Descalso played decent baseball during 2011, but will have to battle a number of talented young infielders in the Cardinals system, notably Tyler Greene, in order to make the team next year. The club likes him, and his ability to play second base and shortstop in addition to third base, but the competition is tough in St. Louis and Descalso might find himself in Memphis at the start of the season.  

Odds of Returning in 2012: 35%

Octavio Dotel

Octavio Dotel has pitched for 12 teams in his career, tied for the most ever for a pitcher, so betting on him to stay on a team is almost always a bad bet. Dotel has contributed positively to the Cardinals bullpen since arriving in St. Louis mid-season, but he is not a long-term option for the Cards.  

The team has a $3.5 million option on Dotel for next season, and there are cheaper options available that would be comparable to Dotel. Still, he is a proven entity, and the Cards will at least consider keeping him around next year. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 30%

David Freese

The Cardinals have held high hopes for David Freese, and they have continued to invest in his future. When he is healthy, he is a strong hitter, regularly batting in the neighborhood of .300. After two ankle surgeries in 2010 and 51 missed games in 2011 due to a hand injury sustained after being hit by a pitch, Freese has not stayed healthy long enough to reward the Cardinals for their patience.

Freese is still under contract in 2012, and is up for arbitration in 2013. He has not done much to earn a raise, so the Cardinals will likely be able to keep him at a relatively cheap price.  

Due to his injury history, other teams are not likely to show much interest in acquiring Freese, and the Cardinals will likely figure that his potential - if he can stay healthy - far outweighs any trade value he could earn on the market.  

Freese will almost certainly return in 2012, though he is running out of time to make his mark on the team.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 95%

Rafael Furcal

Rafael Furcal wants to stay in St. Louis, and the Cardinals want to keep Rafael Furcal. So what's the problem? Albert Pujols.

The Cardinals have a $12 million option on Furcal with a $1.5 million buyout, and letting Furcal go would mean $10.5 million to throw at Pujols in an attempt to keep him in St. Louis. As much as the Cardinals want to keep Furcal around, if the money he makes has a chance of keeping Pujols, that's where the money will go.

There are a number of talented shortstops on the market this winter - Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, and Alex Gonzalez, to name a few - so Furcal would likely find it difficult to earn what he is earning in St. Louis. A likely scenario involves the Cardinals declining Furcal's contract and instead attempting to work out a multi-year deal for less money. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 60%

Jaime Garcia

After missing the 2009 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jaime Garcia, the former 22nd round draft pick, came back strong in 2010 and 2011, earning a combined 26-15 record over the two seasons. In 2011, he had the best winning percentage of any of the Cards starting pitchers who spent the whole season on the team.

St. Louis was not about to let the young lefty go through arbitration and then potentially test the market.  In July, the team locked up Garcia in a four year contract (with two additional years of club options). They envision him eventually taking over the #1 spot currently held by Chris Carpenter. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 99%

Matt Holliday

The Cardinals made it clear that they envisioned Matt Holliday as part of their long-term future when they signed him to a seven-year, $120 million deal before the start of the 2010 season. Though Holliday's offensive numbers have unsurprisingly dipped a bit since leaving Colorado, he has earned two consecutive All-Star appearances and batted .296 with 22 home runs and a .912 OPS in 2011, the second highest OPS on the team behind Lance Berkman.

With Pujols exploring the riches of free agency during the upcoming off-season, the Cards will not even consider moving Holliday and parting with one of their top offensive weapons. Unless the Cardinals become uncompetitive in the coming years and decide to rebuild, expect to see Holliday playing for the Cards for years to come.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 99%

Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson has laced up his cleats in so many locker rooms during his young career that his entrance music should be "Papa Was a Rolling Stone." Despite being only 28 years old, this one-time top prospect has become a solid journeyman pitcher, playing for six teams in his nine year career.

Despite pitching well since he arrived in St. Louis mid-season, going 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA, Jackson is likely to be edged out of the rotation. Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook - Jackson's rotation mates this season - are each signed through next season, and starter Adam Wainwright will return from the disabled list to reclaim his spot. This leaves Jackson as the odd man out.  The Cards are unlikely to want to spend anything near the $8.75 million Jackson earned last season on a sixth starting pitcher, and thus they are likely to let Jackson walk.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 15%

Jon Jay

Since he was called up to the big leagues in early 2010, Jon Jay has performed nicely for the Cardinals. He batted .300 and .297 in his first two seasons, and increased his home run total from four in 2010 to ten in 2011. Jay also provides flexibility in the outfield; he played several games in all three outfield positions this season.  

That flexibility increases the chances that Jay will be around next season. If Lance Berkman departs St. Louis for free agency, the Cardinals will likely want to keep both Jay and Allen Craig in the outfield to play alongside Matt Holliday.

If Berkman sticks around, then the Cards will have two extra outfielders with similar upside and abilities. Because both Jay and Craig are playing on rookie contracts, the Cards would not mind keeping both on the roster, but one could become trade bait if Berkman leaves. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 75%

Gerald Laird

Gerald Laird was brought to St. Louis before the 2011 season to serve as a backup to Yadier Molina, and played under a one-year, $1 million contract. Laird battled injuries, and ended up with only 95 at bats, in which he batted .232. 

Despite his lack of production in 2011, Laird is a decent backup catcher, with a lifetime batting average of .241 and an outstanding arm. He earned $1 million last year, so if the Cardinals intend to compete in 2012, he is a reliable backup for a reasonable price. 

If Pujols leaves St. Louis and the Cardinals decide to rebuild, the team may instead choose to promote Tony Cruz from their farm system. Cruz filled in for Laird during his injury in 2011, and batted .262. Cruz is also capable of playing a few positions, thus increasing his value. Still, he is an unproven entity in the big leagues, while Laird has been around since 2003.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 65%

Kyle Lohse

Kyle Lohse has another year on his contract, and he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Lohse went 14-8 with an ERA of 3.39, a dramatic improvement over his 2010 season in which he went 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA.  

With Chris Carpenter and Edwin Jackson both considering departing St. Louis, the Cardinals are not likely to consider parting with Lohse. Whether he sticks around until 2013 is another story, but he is almost certain to play in Cardinal red next season. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 95%

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn had a solid rookie season in 2011, earning a 3.12 ERA and a 1.038 WHIP, and striking out 40 in 34.2 innings. Lynn is a former first round draft pick and is one of the best young pitchers in the Cardinals organization.

As Chris Carpenter ages and the Cards consider letting Edwin Jackson go to free agency, Lynn is a possible future member of the pitching rotation. The Cards are likely to continue to use him as an occasional starter and long reliever out of the bullpen, and since he will be on his rookie contract for several seasons, the Cards are only likely to let him go in a trade for something valuable.       

Odds of Returning in 2012: 90%

Kyle McClellan

Kyle McClellan started 17 games for the Cardinals in 2011, and went 12-7 with a 4.19 ERA. The Cards could have some availability in their rotation if Chris Carpenter or Edwin Jackson leave the team.  

McClellan is eligible for arbitration, and after earning $1.375 million this season, could be in line for a modest raise. The Cardinals could end up having to replace either Jackson or Carpenter, and they won't want to lose the starts offered by McClellan for a sensible price.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 85%

Yadier Molina

During his eight years of playing for the Cardinals, Yadier Molina has blossomed from a catcher who excelled on defense while producing only average offense, to one of the best hitting catchers in the game. Molina is coming off career highs in batting average, home runs, RBI's and OPS, and is likely to win his fourth straight Gold Glove Award. He has a cannon for an arm, and is the toughest catcher to steal against in the National League.  

The Cardinals hold a $7 million option for Molina in 2012 that they will almost certainly exercise, as he is only 29 years old and there is no one in the farm system who would come anywhere close to replacing him. If Pujols and LaRussa leave and the Cardinals decide to rebuild from scratch, it is theoretically possible the Cards could either deal Molina or decline to exercise their option, but because of his relatively young age he could still figure into a medium-term rebuilding plan.   

Odds of Returning in 2012: 90%

Jason Motte

In the ever-evolving world that is a bullpen managed by Tony LaRussa, Jason Motte has become quite valuable to the Cardinals over the past two seasons. He currently boasts a career 2.92 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. He has been virtually perfect thus far this post-season, giving up zero earned runs, one hit, and zero walks in nine innings pitched.

Motte is peaking at exactly the right time, and he appears to be blossoming into the star of the Cardinals' bullpen. The Cardinals will likely elevate his role in 2012 and make him a greater part of their game plan. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 95%

Albert Pujols

Will he stay or will he go? With all due respect to Prince Fielder, the number one question on the minds of baseball fans is whether Albert Pujols will leave St. Louis. Only 31 years old, Pujols is already one of the all-time greats, a three-time MVP with a lifetime .328 batting average and 445 home runs.  

The Cardinals desperately want to keep Pujols, and perhaps only Cleveland Cavaliers fans can understand the effect his departure would have on the franchise. The price tag Pujols can command, however, might just be too rich for the Cardinals. The Cubs and Nationals are thought to be likely suitors for Pujols's talents, and both offer an attractive option to Pujols.

The Cards are still the best option for Pujols, and the team will pull out all the stops to work out the best offer possible without completely breaking the bank and hurting the team's future in the process. It is likelier than not that Pujols will return to St. Louis, but not by much. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 55%

Nick Punto

Nick Punto was brought to the Cardinals before the 2011 season to serve as an insurance policy in case David Freese's recovery from injury did not go according to schedule. While Freese did not remain healthy, his injury was unrelated to his previous one, and Freese had a strong season, batting .297 with 10 home runs in 133 at bats.  

Freese looks healthy heading into next season, and it is questionable whether the Cardinals will want to fill a roster spot with Punto due to his poor offensive production. However, Punto is a strong defensive player capable of backing up several positions, and he serves as a reliable option on a team of many young players.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 60%

Arthur Rhodes

Arthur Rhodes joined the Cardinals in August after being designated for assignment by the Rangers, and he has pitched less than 10 innings in the remaining portion of the regular season.  

Rhodes is a few days shy of his 42nd birthday, and no longer worth the $4 million he earned in 2011. The Cards might take him off the market for the right price, but he will hardly be a priority for the team. Rhodes will likely look to sign on to another team, though he may have trouble finding employment in the big leagues in 2012.   

Odds of Returning in 2012: 10%

Marc Rzepczynski

Marc Rzepczynski came to the Cardinals as part of the Edwin Jackson-Colby Rasmus deal, and earned a 3.97 ERA in 22.2 inning pitched for St. Louis. He will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this off-season, but will likely not earn too much of a raise.  

He is not a priority for the Cardinals, and some of their prospects could challenge him in spring training for his roster spot, but he is an inexpensive innings eater who fits nicely in the bullpen.  

The only thing the Cards will have to consider is whether keeping him on the team is worth the extra burden his last name places on the team's seamstress. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 65%

Fernando Salas

Fernando Salas was promoted to the role of closer for the Cardinals after Ryan Franklin was released mid-season. His performance was spotty; he collected 24 saves while blowing six. He struck out one batter per inning, and posted an ERA of 2.28.  

Tony LaRussa is legendary for his constant tinkering with his bullpen, and there's absolutely no guarantee that Salas will be the closer tomorrow, let alone in 2012. However, the team still has him on his rookie contract, so as long as he continues to play at the level he has played at, he'll be on the Cardinals for awhile.

Odds of Returning in 2012: 85%

Ryan Theriot

Ryan Theriot is flexible, capable of playing both second base and shortstop, which makes it likely that he will return to St. Louis. The Cardinals will almost certainly push to keep Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and they will have to decide whether to keep Skip Schumacker at second base, play Theriot at the position, or look to free agency to fill the position. Theriot is a cheap option for the Cardinals, and they're unlikely to let him go, despite his very average offensive production.  

Theriot is a sufficient placeholder, capable of providing sufficient offense, but he is by no means untradeable. Because of the low price tag and his defensive flexibility, Theriot is likely to be on the Cards next year, but if the right opportunity came along the Cards wouldn't hesitate to let him go. 

Odds of Returning in 2012: 80%