NFL Week 6: Picks for Every NFL Game

For a league that celebrates parity for the sake of fan interest and television ratings, the NFL's "any given Sunday" aura can wreak havoc on bettors' pocketbooks. You have New England covering fairly comfortably against the Jets last week, but then there's the San Francisco 49ers as only -3 home favorites routing Tampa Bay by 45 points.

Week 6 is about the time where NFL fans should be fairly confident in making an investment in a particular game. A solid sample size of five games, combined with offensive and defensive identities being formed by NFL teams seems to lend a solid foundation for the NFL bettor to build a nice run.

Behind every Super Bowl-defending Green Bay Packers cover, however, there is a 10-point home favorite Philadelphia Eagles upset to the hand of the 49ers lurking in the darkness. By this stage of the season, we think we have it figured out, but it rarely goes according to plan.

With that in mind, here are my picks for all of the NFL contests in Week 6.

St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Not surprisingly, this is the biggest spread of the week. The high-flying defending champs are 5-0 and coming back to Lambeau Field after a solid comeback win at Atlanta on Sunday night. The Packers offense is hitting its stride, averaging 428 total yards of offense per game, fourth best in the NFL.

The Rams, on the other hand, have failed to capitalize on their improbable near playoff appearance in 2010, starting 2011 with a record of 0-4 and looking miserable while doing it. The Rams come into Week 6 ranking 31st in offense and 27th on defense, returning to their roles as league whipping boys.

As I try and avoid "system" plays, listing against-the-spread records and other betting trends, I think sometimes the best way to go is statistical analysis combined with instinct. While giving 14.5 points is a major handicap in today's NFL, I can't see any possible way for the Rams to stay close in this one.

The only factors that give me pause are Steven Jackson returning from injury and Green Bay's tendency to ease up on opponents and play a prevent defense late in games, which usually leads to some missed covers. I say the Packers are covering by the middle of the second quarter and should be far enough ahead by the fourth to afford some garbage-time scores.

Pick: Green Bay Packers (-14.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers overcame their offensive line issues, and put a beating on the Tennessee Titans to the tune of 38-17 in Week 5. The Steelers had a balanced attack with Big Ben throwing for five scores and the offense racking up 174 rushing yards without the services of Rashard Mendenhall. The Pittsburgh defense held Tennessee and star Chris Johnson to 66 team yards on the ground.

The Jaguars come into the game with a record of 1-4, dead last in total offense, and a rookie quarterback. What they have done well is defend, to some degree. While the Jags haven't exactly looked like the Steel Curtain, they have managed six interceptions in five games, and with Roethlisberger's tendency to scramble to try and make the big play, a couple of turnovers could keep this game close.

Also, if Jacksonville's star running back Maurice Jones-Drew can manage some big gains against the stout Pittsburgh run defense, Jacksonville could put some drives together. I like a Pittsburgh win, but a Jacksonville cover. Twelve points is just too much here, and Pittsburgh could be running first. I don't see Roethlisberger coming close to last week's performance. It won't be needed.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+12)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins

An intriguing matchup with the Eagles taking on rival Washington, I like the Eagles to finally get in the win column after two devastating losses in a row. Despite giving up big yards this year, the Eagles defense has some big names, most notably in their secondary.

Rex Grossman has led the surprising Redskins to first place at 3-1 in what looks like a weakened NFC East. I think the real Grossman makes an appearance at FedEx Field Sunday, and the Eagles take advantage of turnovers, while Michal Vick succeeds in a toned down offense. I like the Eagles to win and cover.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions

I like the possibility that this could be a great game. Looking at this matchup on the schedule over the summer, I probably would have done everything to avoid seeing this. The perennial losers, Detroit, have slowly shed that status by building through the draft. They have arrived as a force in the NFL, and teams are taking note. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are clicking on a Brady-Moss 2007 level, and the Lions' young defense is putting pressure on teams, while holding their own in the secondary.

San Francisco put an absolute beating on Tampa Bay, a team with one of the most dysfunctional offenses in the league. San Francisco, unfortunately, is right behind the Bucs in offensive impotence. Last week's blowout was mostly on the strength of the defense, taking advantage of turnovers and good field position.

While I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop for Detroit, most likely in the form of a Stafford injury one of these weeks, they just look like too complete of a team right now to lose to San Francisco at home.

The 49ers have been impressive in beating the Eagles and destroying Tampa Bay, but I see Detroit keeping it rolling at home. I might be inclined to buy a point for protection, but what the hell. Go Lions!

Pick: Detroit Lions (-4)

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

If you were handicapping this game before the season, the opening line would probably be Atlanta -10. While Carolina has only managed one win, they have been competitive, almost beating the powerhouse Saints last week, and putting up 543 eye-opening yards on the Bears at Soldier Field in a 34-29 loss in Week 4.

Cam Newton is for real, and he's surrounded by weapons. The rookie can draw on the talents of wide receiver Steve Smith, tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey, and the running attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Atlanta has been disappointing after winning home field advantage in the 2010 playoffs. They continued their downward spiral after blowing a 14-0 lead against Green Bay on Sunday night. Matt Ryan seems to have taken a step back, as he only managed 167 yards and two interceptions against a struggling Green Bay secondary.

I think Carolina breaks through and builds on their emotional battle against New Orleans. I think their offense will be too much for Atlanta, who are not the team they were in 2010. Carolina for the win and cover.

Pick: Carolina Panthers (+4)

Indianapolis Colts vs Cincinnati Bengals

My stomach turns just thinking about watching this game, even an online gamecast would be painful to follow. The Colts will probably not look back fondly on the Curtis Painter era, starting 0-5 with Peyton Manning recovering from multiple surgeries.

There have been some bright spots. Painter seems to have found a connection with Pierre Garcon, striking for two big scores last week against Kansas City. Unfortunately, they blew a 17-point lead at home and lost again. Delone Carter gets the start against Cincinnati after a Joseph Addai injury.

With some games under his belt and still some considerable talent around him on offense, Painter could make it a game against Cincinnati.

Rookie Andy Dalton continues to turn the ball over for Cincinnati, but has been good enough to win some games. If he can hang onto the ball and Cedric Benson can get back to 2009 form, the Bengals could win another one. I just think the Bengals' game doesn't lend itself to a comfortable blowout win at this point. Indy and some guy with a sore neck at the assistant offensive coordinator position probably will have a solid game plan for Sunday.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+7)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants

Betting on the Giants has all the comfort of sleeping on the floor. The fact that they lost by 11 to Seattle in New York and are three-point favorites against the upstart Bills, who have knocked off New England, Philadelphia, Oakland and emasculated Kansas City, is laughable. It reeks of Vegas trickery.

I'm standing firm by the realization that Buffalo is for real with a potent offense and an opportunistic defense.

Eli Manning is wildly inconsistent. New York's running game has sputtered all year, and the defense has not been able to overcome all of the injuries suffered since training camp.

Based on all of that, I'll go with the Giants. No, it doesn't make any sense at this point to go against the Bills, but I believe that the good Eli Manning will show up Sunday, and the Giants will win a wild one.

Pick: New York Giants (-3)

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is well-rested coming off their bye week. Look for Ray Rice to put up big yards against a tired and beat-up Houston squad, who is now without Mario Williams for the remainder of the year.

Okay, here's a system play that is hard to ignore. The Ravens are 8-1 against the spread after their bye week. Houston is 1-12 in Weeks 5 and 6 combined against non-division opponents. Hard to ignore those numbers.

It also appears that the Texans are coming back to Earth with Matt Scahub dinged up, and Andre Johnson and Williams injured. Houston will have to rely on Arian Foster against one of the top run defenses at home. Should be a cover for the Ravens

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

Cleveland Browns vs Oakland Raiders

Can Oakland keep the mourning of Al Davis thing working for them. One of the important figures of the NFL passed last week, and emotions ran high during a great win for the Raiders at Houston.

Oakland's running game should be too much for Cleveland, while Jason Campbell has played well in the Raiders' conservative offense. The Browns run defense has been one of the worst, and might not have an answer for Darren McFadden.

Should be a comfortable, boring win and cover for Oakland.

Pick: Oakland Raiders: (-6.5)

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Tony Romo and the Cowboys have found new ways to look mediocre, and bad when it has counted this year. While Dallas is ranked high on offense and defense, especially with a stout run defense, they will have problems containing New England's dominant passing game.

Dallas does have enough on offense to make the game interesting. The national afternoon game of the week should be an entertaining one. I say Dallas keeps it close as Romo puts up big yards on New England's defense. Dallas loses a close one by 4.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+7)

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How the Bucs have won 3 games this year is beyond me. Their offense is putrid at the moment, with only a decent running game led by LeGarrette Blount. Josh Freeman and Mike Williams, who at times looked to have a bright future last year, look to be on different wavelengths in 2011. Tampa's wins have come against Minnesota, Atlanta, and Indianapolis. Their drubbing at the hands of San Francisco put up red flags all over the place for this team. There is no way I could take Tampa Bay over anyone with confidence at this point.

With the high powered offense and blitzing defense of New Orleans coming to town, it should be another long Sunday for Tampa Bay. The divisional battle keeps this spread close, but the Saints should cover comfortably.

Pick: New Orleans Saints (-4.5)

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

America, I apologize in advance for this one. The nationally televised Sunday night game features a NFC North matchup with two struggling teams. Both the Bears and Vikings have been recent contenders for the NFC Championship, but are now struggling under the weight of poor offensive line play, and inconsistent and aging defenses.

Both sides have talent at running back. Adrian Peterson continues to prove every week that he is the best running back in the league. The Bears' Matt Forte is emerging as an elite offensive weapon, averaging over 150 total yards per game on offense in 2011.

The passing games for both teams are a wreck. Minnesota has suffered with Donovan McNabb, who is well past his prime. Chicago can't find enough time for Jay Cutler to make a designed play, and when he does have time, his poor receiving corps can't get open.

The Bears need a bounceback win after their poor showing at Detroit on Monday night. I look for the Bears to get Cutler some time with ineffective offensive tackle Frank Omiyale on the bench. The Bears should outlast the Vikings and cover on Sunday night.

Pick: Chicago Bears (-3)

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

The Jets have been vastly overrated for the last couple of years. They have made some noise in the playoffs based on their considerably talented defense, while sputtering on offense with the inconsistent play of quarterback Mark Sanchez. This year, the Jets' defense has struggled.

Miami has holes on both sides of the ball. Chad Henne is always a poor game away from wearing a headset on Sundays, and the defense has given up yards by the truckload.

Look for the Jets to have a balanced attack on offense and a stifling defensive effort against the Dolphins on Monday night. I look for at least a two touchdown victory for New York.

Pick: New York Jets (-7)

There you have it. My first published attempt at sharing my prognosticating mediocrity with the world. Hopefully, I can afford an Internet connection next week to dish out some more picks.