NFL Picks Week 6: Assessing Probability That Each Home Team Wins

Numbers. The NFL is rife with them.

Stats, scores, yards, completion percentages, everything about the NFL is numbers and math. Living math, acted out by human beings for our entertainment, our joy and our outrage.

Let's use numbers to discuss which teams are likely winners this week. Below, I will give you my projected probabilities for each home team to pick up a Week 6 win.

Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is quickly rising up the ranks, becoming one of the NFL's best teams despite being in its weakest division. But the 5-0 Lions are going to be too much for the Niners to handle this Sunday and will continue their undefeated streak for yet another week.

Probability: 85 percent

Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams

The best team in the NFL hosts the worst team.

While the Rams surely put in a great deal of work in their bye week to right a rapidly-sinking ship, it's not going to be enough to topple the undefeated squad.

Probability: 99.9 percent

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

I really like the Panthers in this game, despite their 1-4 record and their inability to win close games.

The Falcons are shaky in many areas, and this will be exposed when they host Carolina on Sunday. A shootout is likely, with the Panthers coming out with the win.

Probability: 40 percent

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts

Heading into the season, the Bengals were pegged to be one of the league's worst. Instead, they have managed to be quietly surprising.

While the Colts have looked improved with Curtis Painter under center rather than Kerry Collins, that Cincy defense will be the difference-maker in this contest.

Probability: 85 percent

New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills

Both the Bills offense and defense are superior to their counterparts on the Giants, who are suffering from flat play and a plethora of mistakes.

One week isn't much time to right the ship, and it's likely that these deficiencies will rear their heads again this Sunday when they host the surging Bills.

Probability: 35 percent

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Steelers are coming off of a convincing 38-17 Week 5 home victory over the Tennessee Titans, while the Jaguars continue to languish at the bottom of the NFL.

Maurice Jones-Drew might hassle a Pittsburgh run defense that's still not back to its 2010 form, but it won't be enough for the home team to drop to 3-3.

Probability: 90 percent

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have just one win on the season—their opener against the now league-worst St. Louis Rams, while the Redskins lead the NFC East and return refreshed from their bye week. It's going to be another disappointing outing for the collapsing Eagles.

Probability: 78 percent

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans

The Texans lost to the Oakland Raiders last week despite their best efforts, and this was mainly due to the Raiders defense stopping the team's vaunted running game while being stomped by the Raiders run.

Quarterback Matt Schaub was forced to pass, and while he racked up a great deal of yardage, it didn't produce a win. Look for the Ravens to repeat this formula this Sunday, with similar success.

Probability: 81 percent

Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are similar to the Texans in their offensive approach but are significantly less successful at it.

Combine that with a trip out west to take on the impressive Raiders, and it's a lock for Oakland to earn a victory in Week 6. 

Probability: 90 percent

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are a difficult team to pin down. One week, quarterback Tony Romo is a hero leading his team to an overtime victory while suffering from a broken rib. The following week, they only pull out a win by kicking six field goals.

The Patriots are far more consistent, with an explosive offense and a soft defense. This game will be a shootout, but the home team should prevail.

Probability: 70 percent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

The Buccaneers were thoroughly embarrassed in San Francisco last week, dropping to the Niners 48-3.

They'll be searching for redemption against the powerhouse Saints this week, and it's certain Tampa Bay will bring their best game. This should be a struggle for the Saints, but not one they can't handle.

Probability: 45 percent

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears have a number of issues this season that need addressing, but it's unclear if they have the resources to do so.

The Vikings, on the other hand, cut off their winless slide with a convincing Week 5 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Whatever momentum they've built up from that shouldn't save them against Chicago on Sunday, but the Bears are going to have to fight for this one.

Probability: 55 percent

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Jets will reverse their fortunes on Monday night against a team they should easily beat. The Dolphins are in a major rebuilding mode after losing starting quarterback Chad Henne to a shoulder injury, replacing him with backup Matt Moore.

While they had the bye to prepare for this change, they're a worse team than even the weak Jets.

Probability: 66 percent