NFL Picks Week 6: Ranking Each Game By Suicide Pool Confidence

As we enter the sixth week of the NFL season, we have been treated with big surprises and huge disappointments. What does this mean for NFL fans? A lot of uncertainty in suicide pools.

If you were lucky enough to avoid the temptation to take the New York Giants over the visiting Seattle Seahawks, you're still alive. For many of your competitors, they were ousted by Seattle's surprise win. With teams like the San Francisco 49ers at 4-1 and the much maligned Philadelphia Eagles at 1-4, it's an incredibly uncertain season for suicide pools.

With all that said, there are still some games this weekend that look like they should be sure bets. Here's a look at how confident you should be in each contest this weekend. 

13. St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers

This is the one game you should have the most confidence in, though I remember two years ago when the Packers traveled to Tampa Bay to take on an 0-7 Bucs team and blew it.  

The Packers are undefeated and look like the most complete team in the league. Their defense bends but doesn't break, and Aaron Rodgers is passing the ball at will. Combine that with an improved running game in 2010, and you have a 5-0 team with a realistic shot to go 16-0.

Meanwhile, the Rams are one of the more underwhelming teams in the NFL. Picked by many to win the NFC West, the Rams suffered a rash of injuries and haven't recovered from them, starting the season 0-4.

While the 2011 season has proven any team can win on any given day, I expect the Packers to roll right along here.

Packers 37, Rams 13

12. New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

If I am a Miami Dolphins fan, I'd consider closing my eyes for this one.

At 2-3, the Jets are getting criticized by everyone for just about everything. They can't run. Mark Sanchez can't throw. The defense can't stop anyone. Rex Ryan can't coach.  You're hearing it all out of New York.

Well the 0-4 Miami Dolphins could provide a good punching bag for the Jets to use. Chad Henne is not out for the year, and the Dolphins are now relying on backup Matt Moore to pull off a major upset. At this point, Miami is a strong candidate to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

This game may not be pretty, but I expect the Jets to take out a lot of frustration in this game.

Jets 23, Dolphins 6

11. Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jaguars are a team that always seems to play the Steelers tough. The last time Pittsburgh lost a playoff game at home, it was to these Jaguars in a game that would turn out to be the crowning achievement of David Garrard's tenure in Jacksonville. 

Sadly, this Jags team will not likely push the Steelers like other ones have. They are young and have been forced to play Blaine Gabbert at quarterback even though he hasn't looked ready to take over the position. 

He has been forced to play due to Jack Del Rio's controversial move to cut Garrard just days before the season started in a move that might have been the final nail in the coach's coffin.

Pittsburgh needs to win this game in a division that is surprisingly log-jammed. The rival Baltimore Ravens are 4-1, the Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 and the Cleveland Browns are 2-2. While lesser teams may take the Jags lucky, I expect Pittsburgh to pounce on them early.

Steelers 28, Jaguars 10

10. Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots

On paper, I shouldn't be that confidence the Patriots will beat the Cowboys. 

After all, Dallas has one of the best passing offenses in the NFL thus far, and their defense has actually performed above expectations.

The problem is they're 2-2 and it's almost single-handedly due to Tony Romo's horrible play in the big moments. While he did lead his team to come back victories against the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Redskins, he also created numerous turnovers en route to costing his team games against the New York Jets and Detroit Lions.

When you have that sort of erratic play when going to New England, it doesn't usually end well. The Patriots have won 19 straight home regular season games, and Tom Brady is putting up the kind of numbers you usually see when playing Madden on your PS3. 

Dallas may in fact stay in this game, but I expect New England to put it away in the fourth quarter. They're just too good and consistent at home. 

Patriots 34, Cowboys 24

9. Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders

Could being this confident in the Oakland Raiders be a kiss of death? Perhaps.

NFL fans and analysts for that matter often take past failures to judge how a team is currently playing. The two best examples you see of that right now are in Buffalo and Oakland.

At 3-2, the Raiders narrowly lost to those same Bills and lost to the Patriots, certainly a defeat that no one should be ashamed of.

Despite their success and an emotional road win at Houston last week, there still are not a lot of people taking this team seriously. Well the next three weeks may change that with three straight home games against the Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.

Make no mistake, there are flaws with this team. Their defense gives up too many yards, and Jason Campbell still can be inconsistent. But aside from their collapse in Buffalo, Oakland has come up big in games this year, and they also have arguably the best running game in the NFL.

The Browns are an improved team as well, but I expect Oakland to be riding high off their huge win last week.

Raiders 28, Browns 20

8. San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions

Am I buying too much into the Detroit Lion hype? Maybe, but nevertheless I am buying in.

What I find amazing about this game, and I doubt many will take notice of this, but with the Lions holding a strength of schedule tie breaker advantage over the Green Bay Packers, this is actually a matchup of the two best teams in the NFC.

Yes, the 49ers are 4-1 and have had impressive wins such as the 48-3 drubbing they put on Tampa Bay last weekend, but I see the Lions continuing their magical season here.

Ford Field is all of a sudden a scary place to play. Just ask Jay Cutler and his Chicago Bear offensive line that was responsible for not one, not two, but NINE false start penalties during the game. 

The Lions are rolling right now and what makes them really dangerous is they have all the right pieces in all the right places to succeed in today's NFL. They have Matthew Stafford at quarterback, and Calvin Johnson can't be stopped at wide receiver.  

Then they have perhaps the best defensive line rotation in the entire league led by second-year standout Ndamukong Suh. In today's NFL, if you can move the ball and disrupt the opposition's quarterback, you're bound to succeed.

The 49ers are another good story and I expect them to win the NFC West, but right now it is still time for Detroit to shine.

Lions 27, 49ers 20

7. Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

The Texans seem to manage to do it every year. They start off strong only to find new ways to lose, except this year, it's compounded by the fact receiver Andre Johnson is injured and star linebacker Mario Williams is now out for the year.

This all spells big problems for a team that basically had the AFC South gift-wrapped for them. Now with their next two games coming up against the Ravens and Tennessee Titans, the Texans could realistically see themselves at 3-4 after seven games.

Baltimore looks like one of the best teams in the AFC right now. Their defense has completely destroyed teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Jets, and Joe Flacco is leading a strong offense. As a whole, you have to consider the Ravens Super Bowl contenders.

The bigger question is what are the Texans? Contenders or just another rendition of a team that grossly underachieves? I believe for this game we'll see more of the latter.

Ravens 28, Texans 23

6. Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

The Eagles season is shockingly on the line in Washington just six weeks into the season. Win and they're 2-4 and just a game-and-a-half behind the Washington Redskins. Lose and they're essentially five games back sitting 1-5 with the 'Skins at 4-1.

It's quite simple. The Eagles must win this game or their season for all intensive purposes is over. That's why I expect Michael Vick and the Eagles to break through here and earn a hard-fought victory.

The Redskins certainly look better than anyone had imagined before the season started. Rex Grossman is playing his best football since the first half of the 2006 season, and the defense looks completely different from 2010. Still, the Eagles do have more talent despite their many shortcomings. 

I'm not completely sold on Philly winning this game, but if I had to bet, I'd say they get a lead in the fourth quarter and actually hold on to it this time.

Eagles 23, Redskins 20

5. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's get one thing straight. The Buccaneers are surely not nearly as bad at their 48-3 loss against the San Francisco 49ers may indicate. Even the good teams manage to have everything go wrong once in awhile.

However, any talk about this team becoming a serious contender in the NFC should be put on hold. Yes, they will most likely contend for a wild-card berth, but the team is pretty much average in every conceivable offensive and defensive statistic. In fact, they actually are fifth worst in the league with just 17.4 points per game, tied with the Indianapolis Colts, who don't have Peyton Manning.

The Saints meanwhile are showing themselves to be one of the best teams in the NFL again. After their close loss to the Packers on Week 1, they have run off four straight wins and look like one of the only teams that could dethrone the champions.

With that said, these two teams played very close games in 2010, and the Bucs are obviously going to want to show the world last week was a fluke. I expect the Saints will win this one, but I would probably not use them in your pool this week.

Saints 27, Buccaneers 20

4. Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

One of these games, the Colts are going to break through. When it comes to a survival pool, they remind me frankly of the game Jenga. You keep pulling pieces of wood out of a miniature structure hoping it won't collapse.

People keep picking the Colts in survival pools because they're an easy target. They're 0-5, have no Peyton Manning and their defense is a mess. But the Colts for three weeks now have been very competitive but keep finding ways to lose.

But just like Jenga, one of these games, people in survival pools will pick against the Colts one too many times and their season will be all over.

Will that happen this week? Perhaps.

The Bengals were picked by many to win only three games all year yet find themselves 3-2 and just a half game out of first place.  With so much talk about teams like Buffalo and Detroit, people don't realize that the Bengals have one of the best defenses in the NFL. 

Additionally, if you take rookie Andy Dalton's miserable game against the 49'ers two weeks ago, he's been a good quarterback this year. Considering how ugly he looked in the preseason, the Bengals will be more than happy with an average year from him.

All things considered the Bengals should win here. But they're a team you just can't have at on of confidence in. I expect Cincy to win, but I would not be surprised at all if we see the Colts sneak in and emerge victorious.

Bengals 28, Colts 24

3. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Boy, if people thought the Falcons were still in a funk over their playoff loss to the Packers in last year's playoffs, what will happen to them now?

After looking like a Super Bowl contender the first two drives of Sunday night's game against Green Bay, in which they scored a touchdown both times, the Falcons were shut out 25-0 the rest of the way. Now 2-3, the Falcons are reeling, and they have an surprisingly explosive Carolina team coming to town with nothing to lose. 

The Falcons need to win this game because if they lose, they'll be in last place in the NFC South and potentially three games out of first. Perhaps this is what the team deserves for not addressing its issues in their secondary, and instead going the Madden video game route and relying on improving their offense to score more points.

Atlanta will be favored to win this one and the Panthers are a young team that's had a big issue closing out games. But they are a team that's gone toe to toe with the Packers, Bears and Saints. The Falcons have lost to two of those teams already this year.

For that reason alone, I go with Atlanta but with no degree of confidence. 

Atlanta 24, Carolina 23

2. Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

The battle for third place in the NFC North!

If you've watched any of the games these teams have played this year then you know you should stay far away from this game. Honestly, how could anyone pick either of these teams with an ounce of confidence?

The Vikings have blown two leads of 17 points or more this year and frankly, if not for choking in three of their four losses this year could be sitting at 4-1. Their defense is strong statistically but doesn't know what the word clutch is. Adrian Peterson, meanwhile, continues to prove he's one of the best running backs of this era.

The Bears meanwhile are 2-2 but look like a team on the brink of total disarray. They have one of the worst defenses in football as they can't stop the run or pass and can't get to the quarterback. Jay Cutler is continuing to prove all his doubters wrong about how tough he is as he's getting abused thanks to playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in recent NFL history.

His wide receivers are also letting him down, not able to get open and dropping big passes when they do.  The only true bright spot on this team is Matt Forte who is accounting for almost half of the teams offense. Yet the Bears general manager didn't feel it was the right time to give him a contract extension in the offseason.

Your guess is as good as mine for this game. The Bears are playing at home, and if they want to have any chance to fight for the sixth seed in the playoffs, they absolutely have to win this game. A loss here, and you may very well see the Bears season completely unravel. 

Bears 19, Vikings 16

1. Buffalo Bills at New York Giants

This game is the big toss-up of the week, and unless you absolutely have to pick one of these teams, you should stay far away from this contest.

The Giants are 3-2 and are coming off a horribly disappointing loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Life was great for New York heading into that game. They were 3-1 and came off consecutive road wins over the rival Eagles and Arizona Cardinals. Yet, they come home and lose to a 1-3 team in Seattle. Which version of the Giants will we see on Sunday?

Buffalo meanwhile continues to prove doubters wrong as they try to dust 11 years of futility off their shoulders. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson continue to lead this group of castoffs as they try to enter their bye week with a 5-1 record.

The Bills to me are in a great position. They're winning against contending teams yet are being given no respect. They also read the headlines a bit too much in their loss to the Bengals, so they know not to lose focus.

I believe the Bills can win this game, but this is certainly their best road opponent so far. If Buffalo can win, I feel they'll firmly establish themselves as a contender. The problem is the Giants are likely going to be foaming at the mouth to avenge their loss last week.

Truly, this game is a toss-up. In the end, I think the Giants come away with a very close last-second victory, but it could easily go the other way.

Giants 31, Bills 27