2011 NLCS: Why the Milwaukee Brewers Will Take Down St. Louis Cardinals

This year’s NLCS seems to be a bit of a letdown on paper given the fact that the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies suffered an untimely death to their season. However,  once one gets over the names and examines this series’ prospects, they will realize that we are in for quite a ride this series.

The NLCS now takes the form of a good old backyard brawl/rivalry game for a trip to the World Series. Few saw the Cardinals doing it after needing an extra inning win by the Phillies over the Braves (ironically) to get in on the last night of the season. Now, they have a chance to make up for losing control of the division to the Brewers this year and re-assert themselves as the “team to beat” in the NL Central.

This series will be hard fought and emotional, as the Brewers and Cardinals have developed quite a dislike for each other. The most notable of recent incidents was a confrontation between Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter and Brewers “emotional leader/sideshow” Nyjer “TPlush” Morgan.  It led to a dugout clearing confrontation and even a call out of mighty slugger Albert Pujols from Morgan in the media.

As the Cubs have slipped back into irrelevancy over the last year or two, the Brewers and Cardinals have now become the division’s most notable rivalry.

This should be a very good series with a series of lead changes and momentum changes, but I think that the Milwaukee Brewers are destined for a special run this year. I have come up with eight reasons why the Brewers will win this series. They are as follows:

7. Zack Greinke Has Not Lost at Home

Greinke has had brief encounters with stardom as a pitcher with the Royals, but due to the Royals' lack of success and them being a small market team, he has remained a relatively unknown star pitcher.

Greinke was brought in by the Brewers to solidify the pitching staff this year in efforts to make a run at the pennant this year. He gives the Brewers a front of the staff starter that can compete with other contending teams and is a big part of their pitching depth this year. 

After starting the season on the DL, Greinke had a solid year this year and did not disappoint.  What makes him a key in this series is the fact that he has not lost a game at home pitching in Miller Park this year. Yes, he has not lost ANY games including the playoffs. That is unbelievable.  He was 11-0 in the regular season!  There is a good chance he will be pitching two home games in this series. That could be the difference.

6. Betancourt and Hairston Are Hot

Has anyone else noticed that Yuniesky Betancourt has been smoldering in the playoffs thus far?  Betancourt is not one of the notable stars on this team, but this postseason, he has hit .318 with a postseason leading seven runs scored. Jerry Hairston has been on fire as well, batting .440, and then Ryan Braun literally has been on fire since August. It’s unbelievable how hot he has been for such a long period of time, but he’s been seeing the ball as well as anyone in baseball and making people pay in every way. 

Having hot hitters like this help out tremendously, as the Brewers only trailed the Diamondbacks, who they defeated in the Division Series, in team average thus far in the playoffs. It’s going to be hard for the Cardinals to keep this team in check.

5. Intangibles: Energy/Special Season Destiny/Nyjer Morgan Factor

There is something special about this team. You can feel it. You watch them play and how they have explosive innings, huge comebacks and convincing wins (especially at home) and you can’t help but notice that something is special about this season. 

Prince Fielder is essentially in lame duck status, by all accounts, and it’s almost as if they want to make it count before they lose one of their two superstars. I sense a feeling of destiny in watching this team play this year. They have more energy than any other team in the playoffs and seem brought together by their team poses and handshakes, etc. 

Nyjer Morgan, although not their best player by any means, seems to really get the team going with his energy, brashness, and dare I call it “comedy?" He is without question out of control and over the top a lot of the time, but his “act” has done nothing but energize the team and give them a swagger that has translated to success on the field. Fans, players and executives alike have all spoken fondly of what he brings to the table, and I feel that his energy will translate to success in this series giving them yet another X-factor.

“He’s meant so much to us,” Ryan Braun said after the Brewers' Game 5 win in the NLDS. “I think he’s been part of our team’s personality, of the emotion we play with, of the energy we play with."

4. Slight Starting Pitching Advantage

The Cardinals have an adequate starting pitching rotation led by NLDS Game 5 hero Chris Carpenter, but the Brewers have a slight edge in the starting rotation. The Brewers have reliable starters in Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo, steadiness out of Randy Wolf, and then Shawn Marcum and Chris Narveson to follow. All five starters accumulated over 10 wins, and all but one had ERAs under 4. 

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have Chris Carpenter at the front, with solid pitching in Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse to follow. Edwin Jackson is a bit of a wildcard for them, but has been pretty solid for them overall since coming over in the White Sox trade. 

The Cards do not have bad starting pitching by any stretch of the imagination, as they have comparable stats to the Brewers, but in almost every statistical category, the Brewers have an edge. I would attribute that to them having a slight edge in pitching depth to outweigh the advantage the Cardinals possess in having a front line No. 1 pitcher to lead the staff in Carpenter.

3. Braun/Fielder 1-2 Punch

There may not be a better 1-2 combo in baseball than Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. These two All-Star and MVP caliber players have been placed back to back in the lineup for the last five years.  The Yankees have a deep lineup, the Phillies have some stars and even the Cardinals have some scary hitters in their lineup, but there cannot be a scarier 1-2 punch than these two. 

Ultra talented players that can hit for average and power, both players have averaged over 30 HR and 105 RBI in their full MLB seasons to this point. This year, Braun hit .332 with 32 HR and 111 RBIs.  It’s amazing to think that a bona fide power hitter like Braun finished a close second in the batting title race this year. Fielder, with Braun hitting in front of him, tallied 120 RBI to go with his 38 HR. 

2. Brewer Bullpen

The Cardinals have a decent bullpen, but they have had their share of issues this year. If not for some of the struggles over the course of the year, and their lack of defined roles, they actually might have given the Brewers a run for the division title. 

The Cardinal bullpen blew 26 saves this season, which is second only to the Nationals.  They also gave up 49 HR, which was third in the NL. Despite their great performance against the Phillies in the NLDS, they even had major issues as recent as Game 1, when they gave up five runs in two-and-two-thirds innings in Game 1. This has been a major problem for the Cards all year.

Conversely, the Brewers have arguably the best eighth/ninth inning combo in baseball, featuring quality relievers Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford. Axford has been especially reliable, closing out 46 of 48 save opportunities during the regular season.  “KRod” is formerly a dominant closer who has 291 career saves, 23 of which came this season before the trade.  It seems almost unfair that he takes the ball in the eighth for them. 

The beginning of the bullpen is not shabby at all, either. LaTroy Hawkins had a 2.52 ERA over 52 games this year. If the Brewers get a lead on you late, the game is basically over.

1. Home Field Advantage

The Brewers are almost unbeatable at home. They had a MLB best 57 wins at home this season and are 4-0 thus far in the playoffs.  They play on another level in Miller Park. They seem to really feed off of the atmosphere and their fans in that stadium. As a result, they have developed a confidence that teams should come and expect to lose when they play there. 

During the season, thanks to a late season sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Cardinals did fare pretty well in Miller Park (4-5), but the Brewers are still a major problem to deal with at home.  With the Brewers having the home field advantage I feel that will be a difference maker.