How Cam Newton's Success Has Forever Changed the Way College QBs Will Be Scouted

Cam Newton's success has stunned everyone except Cam Newton. Even Carolina Panther head coach Ron Rivera didn't expect anything like the production the Panthers have gotten out of the 2011 No. 1 overall pick.

"To be perfectly frank about it, I think he's exceeded everyone's expectations," said Rivera.

Newton wasn't supposed to catch on this fast. Even those who completely believed in his potential to dominate the NFL didn't think that potential would become reality so soon. For those who thought Newton was destined for the Jamarcus Russel/Akili Smith scrap heap, he's already accomplished more than they ever thought he would.

Last month, I wrote that Cam Newton "defies the modern way of evaluating quarterbacks." Over the last 50 years, evaluating quarterbacks has gone from the obvious and empirical (size, arm, leadership, college record) to analytically, divining the it-factor that elevates unremarkable prospects like Kurt Warner and Tom Brady to MVP- and Super Bowl-winning careers.

The old-school ways say Ryan Leaf is too big to fail. The new-school ways say Cam Newton is too big to succeed.

In the modern NFL, quarterbacks must be able to read defenses and deliver a timely, accurate ball. But not every quarterback will be the triggerman for Mike Martz's 800-page playbook. Not every quarterback will need to be able to change the play three times between the huddle and the snap. Not every quarterback needs to be a coach on the field in order to be successful in the NFL.

Similarly, a quarterback must be able to make plays. He cannot simply hit the open checkdown over and over; he must make a positive impact on the game. Matt Lineart failed in Arizona not because of what he did wrong, but because of what he failed to do.

So, what's missing from modern scouting of NFL quarterbacks? Context.

System-agnostic comparisons of quarterback prospects are nonsensical. There are very few quarterback prospects who could run any offense equally well. There are very few quarterback prospects who could succeed regardless of talent around them. The key to evaluating quarterbacks is not finding the best quarterback prospect available, but finding the right one for a given team and situation.

In today's NFL, there is no offseason, especially for the coaches. It's become a chess match between two groups of two dozen coaches grinding out 100-hour workweeks in search of any tiny advantage. Increasingly, the coaches that win are not the coaches that come up with the most brilliant schemes, but the coaches who repeatedly put their players in a situation to do what they do best.

Does Newton have what it takes be the next Peyton Manning? Probably not. But Carolina isn't asking Newton to be Manning, they're asking him to be the best Newton he can be. That's why he's been so successful so soon, and it's why Newton has a chance to be the greatest NFL quarterback of all-time.

The NFL is a copycat league. Teams that are successful become the "new blueprint" for success. But if teams want to copy Carolina's success in drafting Cam Newton, they shouldn't draft a 6'5" manchild with shocking speed and a big arm. They should draft a talented player who wants to win and ask him to do what he does best.