NFL Picks Week 5: Which Games Do Experts See As Closest Contests?

Through four weeks in the 2011 NFL season, ESPN's panel of experts, who pick games each week, are doing very well.

The worst is Chris Mortensen with a record of 40-24, which is still very good to say the least, especially with all the close games there have been.

As for Week 5 however, there's only two games which appear to be close, as the Giants, Patriots and Texans were all unanimously picked to win.

In addition, only one expert chose Buffalo over Philly, K.C. over Indy, Arizona over Minnesota, Tennessee over Pittsburgh, Carolina over New Orleans, Denver over San Diego, Atlanta over Green Bay, and Chicago over Detroit.

The closest and most evenly picked games were the following two.

Tampa Bay (3-1) at San Francisco (3-1)

Between the ESPN experts, the Tampa-San Fran game was split four to four.

It's a big game for both franchises, but more important for the Bucs' as they're not only in a much more difficult division, but need to keep pace with New Orleans and stay ahead of Atlanta.

Both teams have solid rush defenses and aren't living up to the expectations of being sound in the passing games offensively.

Also, despite each being 3-1, none of their wins have been all that impressive.

Tampa beat Minnesota in a comeback road win, and then hung on against Atlanta and Indianapolis at home.

San Fran pulled away late versus Seattle thanks to the Special Teams, blew a two-score lead at home against Dallas, snuck out of Cincy 13-8, and scored 21 unanswered over the underachieving/overrated Eagles in Philadelphia.

This is a statement game for both, is expected to be a defensive battle, and will come down to the wire no less.

But, thanks to QB Josh Freeman using RB LaGarrette Blount early and setting up the play-action late, the Bucs' steal one in The Bay Area.

Buccaneers 17, 49ers 16

Cincinnati (2-2) at Jacksonville (1-3)

Although the experts picked the Bengals over the Jags' six to two, this game will be close, as Jacksonville is a tough outing at home.

Also, the Bengals have trouble playing consistently on the road, as evidence by their slow start in Cleveland and then the loss to Denver at Mile High in Week 2.

On the other side, the Jags' held the Saints to only 23 points in their Week 4 home loss, however, they also intercepted QB Drew Brees twice.

Cincinnati is clearly the better team however, as they have a Top 5 pass defense going up against the Jags' No. 32 ranked pass offense.

In addition, the Bengals rank No. 7 in rush defense while Jacksonville is No. 7 in rush offense.

Something obviously has to give, but Cincy will stack the box and blitz all day to force rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to beat them.

Now when the Bengals have the rock, it's a bit more evenly matched, so there will most likely be stalemate if anything.

But, thanks to the studly defense of Cincinnati, they force multiple turnovers and turn them into points en route to a big road win.

Bengals 20, Jaguars 13

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