Conference Realignment: Predicting the Effects of a Potential Big East Collapse

The Big East conference took another tough punch to the gut yesterday when it was announced that the Big 12 had extended an invitation to TCU.

The Horned Frogs were supposed to join the Big East next season, but all indications point to TCU accepting the offer from the Big 12 instead.

Add that to the fact that Syracuse and Pittsburgh have announced that they are both heading to the ACC, and that leaves the Big East with only six football schools going forward.

The conference looks like it’s on life support right now, and it certainly can’t afford any more defections.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the Big East, it’s time for the six remaining schools to start pondering their future options.

If the Big East crumbles, here’s a look at the best options for Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida and West Virginia.

Cincinnati Bearcats

From a locational standpoint, Cincinnati would be a perfect fit for the Big Ten, but I don’t know how well all those snooty Ohio State officials would handle that.

Plus, even though they’re renovating their facilities, they still don’t hold up to Big Ten standards, especially Nippert Stadium, which currently holds  only 35,000 fans, which would make it the smallest stadium in the conference.

The Big 12 could be interested, but Cincinnati would probably be a last resort for the conference if it couldn’t reel in more desirable teams like Louisville, West Virginia and BYU.

Connecticut Huskies

Connecticut has already shown a strong interest in joining the ACC, and that would probably be the best fit for the Huskies, but it’s still unknown whether or not the conference wants to expand further to 16 teams.

UConn's basketball program is a much more desirable asset than its football team, but the football team has certainly made strides since joining the Big East.

It would be interesting to see what the Huskies basketball team could do in the ACC, but the football team would probably dwell at the bottom of the barrel for at least the next few years.

Louisville Cardinals

Rumors are floating around that Louisville is one of the potential targets for the Big 12, and that’s probably the best conference fit for the Cardinals.

Charlie Strong has stabilized the football program and set it up for future success, and Rick Pitino has already established the basketball team as a national contender.

The Big 12 would be a great fit for Louisville.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

If the Big East breaks up, Rutgers would actually be in the best shape out of the six teams, as the Scarlet Knights would likely have the option of joining either the ACC or the Big Ten.

Rutgers has been mediocre since its breakout 2006 season, but the school holds the key to the New Jersey/New York City area market, prime real estate to which conferences like the Big Ten and the ACC would love to gain access.

Rutgers has the academic reputation to fit into the Big Ten, but the Knights would also fit in well as part of the new-look ACC, with other Northeastern schools like Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

South Florida Bulls

Skip Holtz looks like he’s about to take South Florida to the next level, and you have to admire how quickly the program has risen through the ranks. The only problem is, the only geographic fit that would make sense for the Bulls is in the ACC.

The Tampa market is moderately attractive, and the Bulls do play in a pro-size stadium, but the basketball team would be an also-ran in the ACC, and it remains to be seen if the conference would pull the trigger on the Bulls if the Big East does in fact disintegrate.

If the ACC takes a pass, it’s hard to predict where the Bulls would possibly end up.

West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia has already sent out feelers to both the SEC and the ACC, but the Mountaineers have been rebuffed by both conferences.

I wasn’t surprised that the SEC said no thanks, but I do think that West Virginia would have been a quality fit in the ACC.

That leaves West Virginia with limited options if the Big East folds.

The Big 12 is rumored to have some interest but that’s not an ideal fit geographically. West Virginia doesn’t have the academic standards characteristic of the Big Ten, and it’s doubtful that the conference would want them, anyway.

The Big 12 is probably West Virginia’s best bet.