NFL Picks Week 5: Saints Will Stop Cam Newton and Panthers Cold

This weekend, the Carolina Panthers will face the New Orleans Saints. Both are among the NFL leaders in total offense, thanks mostly to stellar quarterback play.

Cam Newton has impressed so far this season, proving that he is just as much of a threat passing as he is running. Throwing for back-to-back 400-yard games is no small feat, and Newton is placing himself firmly among elite quarterbacks.

The question this week is, will the Saints defense be able to stop such a dynamic playmaker? The answer is yes. New Orleans will not only stop Cam Newton, they will shut him down.

Here are six ways in which the Saints can stall Newton and the Panthers.

Control Time of Possession

The logic here is pretty simple. If Cam Newton does not have the ball in his hands, he will not be able to beat the Saints.

On average, New Orleans has the ball for just under 33 minutes per game, good for sixth in the league. That average has been steadily increasing as the season progresses, including 37 minutes of possession in their game last week against Houston.

New Orleans’ offense is at its best when Drew Brees feels comfortable in the pocket. As soon as the passing game gets going, the Saints are able to open up the run. Carolina ranks 31st in the NFL in rush defense, so even for the Saints, who rely mostly on Brees, they should be able to control time of possession on the ground.

Newton is used to having the ball in his hands often. If he is standing on the sidelines watching the Saints march up and down the field at will, he might get anxious and cold, leading to more mistakes when he finally takes the field.

Penalties

Carolina is a good offensive team. They rank just behind New England and the Saints, averaging 440 yards per game. However, the Panthers are only 17th in the league in points scored, with just 89 total through four games.

The reason for this discrepancy is costly mistakes made by the offense. In addition to missed field goals, Carolina’s most glaring problem is penalties. They average eight flags a game for 61 yards. Penalties are deflating for any team, especially one like Carolina with a young quarterback.

Newton has expressed his anger with losing many times. Drives stalling because of penalties and long gains being erased cannot help Newton's attitude.

New Orleans, on the other hand, is second in the league, averaging just 33 yards per game in penalties. If the Saints’ defense can keep up that rate and play clean football, they will not surrender any free yards to Carolina.

Conversely, the Panthers’ offense should make enough mistakes themselves to keep the offense under control.

Pin Carolina Deep with Special Teams

After ranking near the bottom of the NFL in special teams last season, New Orleans spent considerable time in the offseason working on improving in all areas, but especially in punt coverage. Their hard work has paid off, as New Orleans is first in the league in punt defense.

If the Saints’ special teams can pin Carolina deep in their own territory, it puts pressure on Cam Newton. It also allows the Saints defense to blitz, something they have done often and with success this season.

While Newton has performed well against blitzes so far this season, doing so on the 50-yard line compared to inside your own ten-yard line are two very different things. In general, as much pressure as an opposing defense can put on a young quarterback, the better.

Cam Newton is a very good quarterback, but he is not incapable of being hurried or making bad decisions. He already has five interceptions on the season, and the Saints should be focusing on increasing that number.

Keep Newton Guessing and Take Away Long Ball

One of Cam Newton’s strengths this season has been his ability to throw deep and to do so consistently. He has completed over 50 percent of his passes over 20 yards, completing 15 passes for 523 yards.

It is no secret that Newton’s favorite receiver is Steve Smith. Smith is having a career year and compliments Newton perfectly. The Saints have only allowed seven yards per completion on the season and do not give up long passing plays often.

The defense will have to focus most of their attention on Smith and Carolina’s two tight ends – Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey. The one advantage New Orleans has is that they can watch film from Carolina’s first four games.

Both Arizona and Green Bay played conservative defenses designed to slow up Newton in the running game. As it turns out, he can be just as lethal through the air. The Saints will not make the same mistake.

Their defense is very good at disguising coverages and baiting offenses. While Cam Newton has excelled against some good defenses this season, he has not had to work too hard to read coverages and make hard decisions. New Orleans will try and force Newton to make bad throws.

Against a good Green Bay defense, Newton threw three interceptions. Look for New Orleans to try for a similar result.

Stop the Run

Carolina is not a good rushing team. Despite having three weapons in DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Cam Newton, not one of those players is averaging over five yards per rush. In their first two games against Arizona and Green Bay, Carolina ran for 74 and 71 yards respectively.

In the monsoon of a game against Jacksonville, Carolina rushed for 107 yards and won. Against an awful Chicago Bears run defense, the Panthers amassed 169 yards and came very close to an upset.

While it is clear why the team relies on Newton so much, they understandably perform better when there is more balance. If New Orleans can limit Carolina’s rushing game and force Newton to make tough throws against their defense, they will increase the potential for turnovers and put more pressure on the quarterback.

The Saints are ninth in the league in rush defense and can shut down all three threats. They will also be able to limit Newton from breaking plays open on the ground without playing a conservative defense. Carolina is only converting 33 percent of its third downs.

Because New Orleans is so adept at stopping the run, they will force a number of third and longs that, combined with Carolina’s conversion rate, will result in many stalled drives for the Panthers.

Red Zone Defense

The Saints began the season with a horrible red zone defense. They allowed opponents to score on every trip inside the 20-yard line. However, as good teams do, New Orleans is adjusting and improving. Last week against the Texans, the Saints allowed just one touchdown in five trips.

They will continue their improvement against Carolina, mostly because the Panthers seem to have only one option inside the ten-yard line—Cam Newton. Again, New Orleans will have the benefit of time to prepare.

Game film will show the Saints that inside the 10-yard line, Williams has carried the ball twice and Stewart has not carried at all. Therefore, the defense will key on Newton. Mostly, Newton has elected to run the ball and the Saints will be ready to stop him.

If the Saints can force field goals or hold Carolina without scoring points at all, they will further frustrate Newton. 

Saints Will Be Victorious

New Orleans has the benefit of time in this week’s matchup with Carolina. Cam Newton is not a secret anymore. He is a very capable quarterback who has proven he can do more than just run the ball.

However, New Orleans is a team very equipped to stop him in his tracks. They will force Newton to beat them in the air, against very good defense, while being pressured from all angles. This game will be unlike the previous four Newton has dominated.

Against the Saints, his numbers will resemble those of a rookie quarterback rather than one of the NFL’s leading passers. Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints' offense will overwhelm Carolina's defense, scoring at will.

Don't expect any fourth quarter heroics from Newton, either. This game will be out of hand early.