Week 5 NFL Picks and Analysis

In Week 4 of the NFL season I went 12-4 with my picks and I'm hoping to continue that streak into Week 5. This week we have our first round of bye weeks, with Cleveland, Dallas, Saint Louis, Miami, Washington and Baltimore all off. 

Even with all those teams off we still have quite a few big games happening this week, especially in the later games.

We'll get to see the Packers get tested on the road against the Falcons and the Bears attempt to give the Lions their first loss of the season. Plus, the Jets are going into New England, which is always game of the week material.

With these games and more on the schedule, there's plenty to be excited for. Which teams are going to walk off the field with victories this week? Read on to find out.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

The Philadelphia Eagles haven't had any trouble racking up yards this year. The passing offense ranks ninth in the NFL and the rushing attack is even better, coming in at second. Michael Vick has been his electric self even while dealing with injuries. 

He's already gone for over 1,000 yards passing and 200 yards rushing, while adding six touchdowns. LeSean McCoy has been able to add 363 yards and both are averaging over 5.5 yards per carry. 

The biggest problem for the Eagles offense is the thing many were worried about coming in, the line isn't near as good as the skill players. You could have the best players at every skill position, but they won't be able to win games without a solid line. 

Fortunately, the Bills defense isn't anywhere close to elite and has given up over 30 points twice this year. The bad news is the Eagles defense isn't much better. The highly touted pass defense has been decent, but the front seven can't stop the run. This forces the team to put extra players in the box, which greatly reduces the effectiveness of the secondary.

This could be terrible considering that the Bills combination of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have been much better than I expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Add to that the much improved Ryan Fitzpatrick and you have an excellent offense that could give the Eagles a whole lot of trouble.

I'm very tempted to pick the Eagles this week because I legitimately think the Bills are over-performing and will soon come back down to Earth, while the Eagles will right their ship soon. However, with the Bills playing at home I can't go against them. That said, I really wouldn't be surprised to see this game going either way.

WINNER: Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts

Well, someone had to win last week when the Minnesota Vikings played the Kansas City Chiefs. Luckily for Chiefs' fans, Matt Cassel and co. were able to do just enough to beat the Vikings at home. This week they're going on the road to face another terrible team, the Indianapolis Colts.

Neither team has been great this year, but they have at least become competitive lately. The Chiefs offense has been terrible so far this year. Cassel isn't even throwing for 160 yards per game and the running attack hasn't been much better since losing Jamaal Charles early on.

The good news for fantasy owners is that Ryan Succop might be a solid pickup after kicking five field goals last week.

The Colts offense hasn't been much better no matter who's lining up under center. Neither quarterback Kerry Collins or Curtis Painter has been very effective this year, but Painter at least seems to have the team playing competitively.

Neither of these teams are going to the Super Bowl this year, let alone the playoffs, but they both want to at least stay competitive in every game. So far, the Colts haven't won a game, but they've played well against two solid teams in back to back weeks. I'm not looking for Curtis Painter to have a huge day on Sunday, but I think he'll do just enough to give the Colts their first win of the season.

WINNER: Indianapolis Colts 

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

The Cardinals started the season with a win against the surprisingly good Cam Newton, but have followed that up with three straight close loses. The offense's biggest problem hasn't been getting yards, they've just had a tough time holding onto the ball. 

Kevin Kolb does have over 1,000 yards passing and five touchdowns, but he's already given up the ball eight times. It's difficult to get or keep a lead when you're giving the other team the ball at such a high rate. 

Because of that, it's hard to put all the defensive woes on the defense. It's difficult for any defense to play well when they're on the field all day. If Kolb can get a handle on his turnovers this defense will improve simply because the opposing team won't have as many chances to rack up yards and points.

Last week I said two things about the Vikings. The first was that they needed to give Adrian Peterson the ball more and it would seem Leslie Frazier was listening, as he let AD tout the rock 23 times against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, Peterson was held to 3.5 yards per carry and no touchdowns.

Now, I'm not saying they need to get away from him because he did have 80 yards in the game and is a much better option than Donovan McNabb, but he needs to break some touchdown runs to give this team a shot at winning. Speaking of McNabb, it might be time to bench him. He's obviously not producing even with Peterson playing well and the team should see what they have in Christian Ponder.

The second thing I said was that the Vikings would beat the Chiefs. Obviously they lost, and it now looks like they might be the NFL's worst team. 

The good news is that the defense is stopping the run like you would expect and Jared Allen is currently on pace for 26 sacks. Now, he obviously won't get to that, but it means the team is getting after the quarterback. If only the secondary and passing game could catch. Then this team might actually be legitimate.

Neither of these teams have an elite quarterback and, while the Vikings have the better running back and arguably the better defense, they haven't done anything this year to show me they can win. I hope I'm proven wrong considering the Vikings are my team, but I think they're playing for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

WINNER: Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants

After getting dropped by the Steelers 24-0 in Pittsburgh, I basically wrote off the Seahawks. In the last two weeks however, they've beaten a division rival and kept it close against the Atlanta Falcons. 

That said, the offense is still starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback and the running game couldn't run through a paper bag. In fact, this is statistically one of  the worst offenses in the league, averaging only 254 yards and 14.5 points per game.

The defense has been the lone bright spot and it's only mediocre at best. The unit currently sits at 13th overall in yards per game while giving up 24.3 points a game. That said, they have the least amount of takeaways so far this season with only two.

I have to say, the Giants have been surprising me this season. I thought that, given their large number of injuries to key players, they would be lucky to be 2-2 at this point, especially after losing to Washington in the opener.

Eli Manning and Co. have been proving me wrong every week. They beat two teams I thought would be division leaders (Philadelphia and St. Louis) and a team I thought would be much improved in the Arizona Cardinals.

Now that they're starting to get back key players on both sides of the ball, this team is looking very dangerous. With guys like Hakeem Nicks and Osi Umenyoira having the impact you would expect from them as they come off injuries, this Giants squad could become an NFC contender.

The Seahawks' defense has done a good job keeping their offense in games, but this team just isn't talented enough to keep up with the Giants, especially in New York. Look for Eli to have a big day with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham probable to play.  

WINNER: New York Giants

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Hasselbeck is currently enjoying a career renaissance with the Tennessee Titans. He's already thrown for 1,152 yards and eight touchdowns, while completing 66.7 percent of his passes. He's also turned Nate Washington and Kenny Britt into very good receivers, although Britt was recently placed on the IR.

Up until last week, the passing attack has been doing it all by themselves, but running back Chris Johnson finally had a big game against the Browns. Johnson finally broke the 100-yard mark with a 101-yard performance, but he's still without a touchdown. The rust seems to wearing off though, so expect him to improve as we move forward.

The defense has been excellent so far and is only giving up 14 points per game. That's not a good sign for a Steelers team that has been under-performing this year.

It appears that Ben Roethlisberger will be able to play this week, but he could be seeing the turf quite often. The Steelers offensive line hasn't played well so far and his foot injury isn't going to help his mobility.

Unfortunately, running back Rashard Mendenhall is also banging up and, while he should be able to go on Sunday, the team might be forced to give the bulk of the carries to Chris Redman.

Usually, in a situation like this, the Steelers would lean on their stout defense, but, while the unit is still elite, it's obvious that it's beginning to age. The squad will also be hurt by the loss of James Harrison, who broke his orbital bone.

The Steelers are going to be tough to beat at home and the defense isn't ready to give up on its claim of being one of the league's elite, but key injuries and a talented Titans team could be the recipe for disaster. Look for a hard fought game that will ultimately go to the road team and cause the talking heads to doubt the Steelers "D" even more.

WINNER: Tennessee Titans 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints offense is disgustingly efficient. Drew Brees is completing 69 percent of his passes while posting 1,410 yards and 10 touchdowns. He's also getting the ball to multiple receivers, as six guys have double-digit catches and all of them have at least one touchdown.

The rushing attack is balanced too, with all three guys putting up over 130 yards each so far this year. I fully expected the team to have a great passing attack, but I've been impressed with all the running backs, especially Darren Sproles, who's making the most out of his touches to say the least.

The defense isn't quite as good as the offense, but it's not too far off. The front seven is holding teams to under 100 yards per game and the secondary is keeping passers to 254 yards a game. They haven't been able to cause many turnovers this year, but that's okay given that the offense has done a good job at holding onto the ball.

It's too bad Cam Newton didn't get picked up by a better team, but that's what happens when you're the No. 1 pick. You could do worse for the guy that's supposed to save your franchise. Newton has already racked up 1,386 yards and he has eight total touchdowns to go with five interceptions.

He's also helped revitalize Steve Smith's career. The old pro has racked up 520 receiving yards through two games for a 22.1 yards per catch average. The rushing attack finally seems to be getting its act into gear, which only makes Newton more dangerous.

The defense doesn't give up a ton of yards, but they're letting opponents score 25.5 points per game. That's not going to cut it, no matter how good your rookie quarterback is playing.

The Panthers have been in every game they've played so far this season; even against superior teams like the Packers. I'm sure Cam Newton will hit the rookie wall sometime soon, but not this week. Given that he's at home, I think he'll win a shootout against the efficient Drew Brees.

WINNER: Carolina Panthers 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Andy Dalton has been much better than I expected him to be this season and he seems to have developed a good connection with fellow rookie A.J. Green. That said, he's still only completing 58.1 percent of his passes and has more turnovers (five) to touchdowns (four).

Cedric Benson has continued to produce, even with a looming three-game suspension. He's currently sixth in the league in rushing, but he's been unable to hit pay dirt much with only one touchdown on the season.

The defense has been the biggest surprise. They are currently the best unit in the NFL as far as yards per game and are only giving up 18 points per game. This astoundingly high level of play has kept them in every game of the season, even while they grow through Dalton's growing pains.

The Jaguars quickly put Luke McCown on the bench in favor of sending Blaine Gabbert to the wolves. Time will tell if that was the right decision, but, as it stands now, Gabbert hasn't made the passing attack much better. The team currently claims the worst passing attack in the league.

Luckily, they've been able to lean on the tough running of Maurice Jones-Drew to keep them in games. He has 391 yards so far, but, much like Benson, has only been able to get in the end zone once. If the team can't get more touchdowns out of their stud running back they'll be in for a long season.

The defense hasn't been quite as good as the Bengals, but they are holding opponents to 21 points per game while not giving up very many yards. They're also forcing the opponent into interceptions and getting to the quarterback at a decent rate. It's not an elite unit, but it's not terrible either.

I have yet to see anything from Blaine Gabbert that makes me think he's going to turn the corner and become a legitimate starter this year. Andy Dalton is a little further along at this point and, since this is a quarterback driven league, I have to go with the better quarterback. That's especially true when the better quarterback has the better defense. Don't be surprised to see the Bengals win by double digits.

WINNER: Cincinnati Bengals 

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans

The Oakland Raiders boast the best rushing attack in the NFL. Most of that is due to Darren McFadden and his NFL leading 468 yards rushing. Michael Bush has also been able to find his spot, as he and McFadden both have three scores on the year.

Jason Campbell hasn't played bad at the quarterback position. He could do with either a reduction in turnovers (four) or an increase in touchdowns (also four), but he's thrown the ball well and is completing over 65 percent of his passes.

The defense hasn't been playing near as well. In fact, they have yet to hold a team below 23 points. Even with the offense playing at a high level and holding the ball for long, sustained drives, it's hard for any team to win when the defense can't keep opponents' scoring down.

The Houston Texans finally got Arian Foster back from injury and just in time. The same week he came back, running back Ben Tate and wide receiver Andre Johnson went down with injury. It does look like Tate will be back next week, but Johnson will probably miss some time.

This is worrying because, after Johnson, the Texans lack an established deep threat. Sure, Owen Daniels is solid down the seam and a reliable target for Matt Schaub to throw to, but he lacks the explosive ability that makes Andre Johnson one of the best in the NFL.

Fortunately, the Texans have one of the best defenses. Aside from a terrible day against Drew Brees and the Saints, this unit has been spot on. They have playmakers all over the field and are holding teams to only 17.5 points per game.

The Raiders had to face the wrath of the Patriots last week after New England gave away an early lead to Buffalo two weeks ago. That's tough for any team to endure, but now they have to go into Houston and take on the Texans. In games that are this tough to pick on paper, I generally go with the home team and I see no reason to venture from that strategy in this game.

WINNER: Houston Texans 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are realistically a year away from competing. Yes, they did barely lose to the undefeated Lions and they did beat a division rival in Atlanta two weeks ago; however, they've been down at halftime to two terrible teams in the Vikings and Colts and needed late-game heroics to pull off, what should of been, easy wins. 

Now obviously it's good to see a team get tested and come back, but you'd like to see them be more dominate against the NFL's cellar teams. Josh Freeman has played about as well as I thought he would, getting five total touchdowns to four turnovers, but he'll need to take that next step before this team is a serious contender.

The San Francisco 49ers might be the most surprising 3-1 team in football. I could've seen them beating the Bengals and the Seahawks, but the Eagles? No way. Plus, they took the Cowboys to overtime. As crazy as it sounds, it's not outrageous to think this team could be undefeated today.

What's even more puzzling is that they're not really that great statistically. They rank in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive yards per game. However, they do two things right. The first is that they don't give up many points, only 18 per game.

The second is that they do a great job at holding onto the ball and taking it away. Currently, their turnover ratio sits at +8, which is good enough to tie them with the Lions for the best mark in the NFL. Quarterback Alex Smith has only thrown one interception while the defense has gotten six and added five fumble recoveries.

While I think the Buccaneers record will even out as they move into the meat of their schedule over the coming weeks, that doesn't start this week. Even at home the 49ers shouldn't be able to beat the Bucs. Of course, I said that last week about the Eagles and they blew it for me. Here's hoping I haven't made the same mistake again.

WINNER: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Other than a run-in with the offensive juggernaut that is the New England Patriots, this Chargers squad has looked pretty good. Phillip Rivers hasn't quite been his usual fantasy stud self, throwing just five touchdowns to six interceptions, but he is racking up yardage and his numbers look to be on the upswing.

That's good news for receiver Vincent Jackson, who already has three touchdowns on the year. Sadly, fellow big-play pass catcher Antonio Gates has been out with injury since the second game of the season. Fortunately for the Chargers, running backs Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert have stepped up and have over 400 yards receiving and two touchdowns between them.

Speaking of the rushing attack, Matthews finally looks to be the back many thought he would be last year. He's currently moving the ball for 4.7 yards per carry and has 288 yards on the year. Tolbert has stolen a few touchdowns from him, but between the two of them they have five on the season.

Denver's offense hasn't been quite as good. Kyle Orton has thrown more touchdowns (eight) than interceptions (six), but he hasn't been able to move the ball up and down the field like Rivers.

The rushing attack hasn't been much better. Willis McGahee has almost as many yards as Matthews, but is rushing for almost a full yard less per carry. He also has only one touchdown to Matthews' three. Plus, he's not getting the help from other players in the backfield that Matthews is enjoying.

There are a few bright spots on the team. Wide receiver Eric Decker has four touchdowns on the year and rookie Von Miller has been racking up sacks of late. However, there's just not enough yet for them to contend for the division.

Even in Denver, the Broncos are going to have a tough time on both sides of the ball. San Diego's offense moves the ball against anybody and their defense has been locking opponents down for much of the season. The Broncos are beginning to put together some nice pieces, but they aren't ready to compete with the much more talented Chargers.

WINNER: San Diego Chargers 

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

After looking pretty strong in the first two games of the season, the New York Jets have fallen to two solid teams in back-to-back weeks. This offense has yet to show it can run the ball effectively, which isn't good for Rex Ryan's squad.

Matt Sanchez is not a player who needs to be throwing the ball around all game. He has thrown one more touchdown than interceptions this year, but he's also lost three fumbles. He's simply not good enough to have the ball in his hands as much as he has lately.

Unfortunately, the running game hasn't been able to help him out. Shonn Greene did have a tough assignment going against the stout Baltimore Ravens run defense, but he only has 157 yards so far this year. He simply has to do better for this team to win games.

If only he was playing his own defense, which is excellent against the pass, but not nearly as good against the run. It'll be interesting to see if that highly ranked secondary can stop the Patriots this weekend.

The Patriots have the best offense in the NFL. Tom Brady is putting up video game numbers and is on pace for over 6,000 yards and 52 touchdowns. Even more amazing is Wes Welker, who, if he continues his current streak, will have 160 catches, 2, 464 yards and 20 touchdowns by the season's end.

Obviously it's unlikely either will hit that mark, but with how well they're clicking lately I don't know if I'd be surprised. New England is also finally getting some help from the running game, as the duo of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Steven Ridley came on strong last week with over 150 yards between them. If they can continue playing at a high level, this offense will be almost impossible to stop.

On paper the defense doesn't look very good, but that's because of how fast and often their offense scores. Even as the worst ranked defense in terms of yardage, they're only giving up 24 points per game. I think the team will take that considering how prolific the offense is.

It's always a gamble picking a Jets vs. Pats game because the two teams hate each other so much, and you know that means that they're both bringing their best game. I'm going to continue my strategy of picking the home team in games that are too close to call. The Pats win it in a shootout because of Matt Sanchez's inability to be Tom Brady.

WINNER: New England Patriots

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Is it just me or does it feel like the Green Bay Packers aren't the defending champs? Now, I'm not saying that they're playing bad or anything, but it just feels like they aren't getting the hype other teams get. 

That's strange because, while New England is the most dominant offense, this squad isn't far behind. Aaron Rodgers has an outstanding 73.1 completion percentage and has only thrown two interceptions to 12 touchdowns. Plus, his team is loaded with weapons to throw at the defense. 

Already three Packer receivers have three touchdowns each. All three of those guys also have over 200 yards receiving and at least 15 catches. Interestingly, none of those guys are named Donald Driver. With a multitude of talented receivers, the Packers can line up four wide and torch any secondary in the NFL. It's almost like they don't need a running game, but both Ryan Grant and James Starks are currently averaging 4.7 yards per carry or more.

The defense is much like the Packers, in that it gives up points and yards, but it does so because of how fast and efficiently the offense scores points. What this defense does is make big, game-changing plays. They already have eight interceptions as a unit and have sacked the quarterback 11 times. Not bad for a team that's currently giving up over 335 yards to opposing passers.

The Atlanta Falcons should be much better than their record indicates. They have an elite quarterback, an upper tier running back, an outstanding receiving corps and some good players on defense. That said, they're just not producing.

Matt Ryan has more turnovers than touchdowns so far this season, which is surprising considering how well he held onto the ball last year. Michael Turner has been solid, but he's yet to really have a big, breakout game.

Julio Jones has been performing as well as expected, but Roddy White is still being bothered by a deep thigh bruise he suffered in the preseason. Luckily, Tony Gonzalez has been able to get in the end zone and give the Falcons a true red-zone threat while White works his way through the injury.

The defense was hoping to bring in pass rusher Ray Edwards and have him line up opposite John Abraham, giving the team a solid pass rush. Unfortunately, Edwards has yet to register a sack and Abraham hasn't been able to do it on his own. Without a steady pass rush the secondary has just been mediocre, giving up 275 passing yards per game.

I really do think the Falcons will become the team many thought they would be at the beginning of the season. However, I don't think this is the week they do it. The Packers are just too good right now and I wouldn't pick against them no matter who or where they were playing.

WINNER: Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

If the Chicago Bears didn't have Matt Forte, I think they would be winless right now. The offensive line can't protect Jay Cutler and that's caused Cutler to be less than effective. Granted, Cutler does usually make as many mistakes as big plays, but sometimes this year he doesn't even have a chance to try and throw with how bad the line has been.

Matt Forte, on the other hand, is enjoying an excellent year. He already has over 300 yards rushing and receiving; we haven't seen these numbers since Ladainian Tomlinson was in his prime. He's been absolutely electric out of the backfield this year. Now, if only he could get in the end zone more.

Luckily, the team has Devin Hester to score points for them on returns. Last week he brought back his 11th career punt return, which brings his total to 15 total return touchdowns. 

While Hester has been shortening the field for his offense, the defense has been letting opponents run and pass all over them to the tune of 425-plus yards per game. That total is good (or should I say bad) enough for second to last in the NFL. They've also been giving up 24.5 points per game, not exactly the stout defense we've come to expect from the Windy City.

The Detroit Lions defense has been much better, giving up only 334 yards and 19 points per game. Plus, they've also been forcing quite a few turnovers, which has led to them tying for the league lead in +/- turnover ratio with eight.

The offense has also been fairly stellar under Matthew Stafford's leadership. He's currently thrown only three interceptions to 11 touchdowns while putting up 1,217 yards through the air.

Most people think all his yards are coming from Calvin Johnson and, while Johnson is enjoying a great year with eight touchdown catches already, Stafford has spread the ball around quite a bit. Five Lions' players have double-digit catches and over 180 yards receiving. If that's not good ball distribution, I don't know what is.

The one knock on the offense has been the lack of an effective rushing attack. Right now, that doesn't matter as much, but as we move further along into the season Jahvid Best needs to step up and keep defenses honest.

The Lions have to be the most surprising 4-0 team in quite some time. Many predicted they would finally be competitive, but no one thought they'd be this good. The Bears are going to give them a tough test, but they should pull out a victory on their home field.

WINNER: Detroit Lions