College Football Rankings: Top 25 Previews and Predictions Week 6

Welcome to another edition of the top 25 previews and predictions.  If you missed last week, you missed a great week of previews and discussion. I looked like a football genius/savant by taking Pittsburgh and Kansas State to win and looked like I never watched football before by taking Florida!   Overall, I went 13-5 in picking games straight up. 

This week, there are 21 games featuring ranked opponents and only three games between two ranked opponents.  It is seemingly a "down" week for college football but be careful.  It is always when you expect the least out of college football that it shows you how awesome it is!

Game times are subject to change and spreads definitely will change.

And as always, any and all comments are encouraged.

California (+23.5) at No. 9 Oregon Thursday 8:00 PM EST

Cal seemed to have the recipe for success against Oregon last year, holding the Ducks to just 15 points on 317 yards.  This year, both teams come off a bye, and a defensive struggle seems like the most unlikely outcome.

Oregon comes in with an offense equally potent with last years numbers.  We all know the names that contribute to the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation—Thomas, James, Barner, De’Anthony Thomas—but it’s been proven by LSU and others that it can be stopped.  Thomas is not the most effective passer, and Oregon can be out-physicaled. 

Cal features a more potent offense than they did last year.  They have two big playmakers at wide receiver in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones, as well as a solid back in Isi Sofele.  Although Cal has been able to move the ball, it would be unwise to get in a shootout with Oregon.

That’s where a small dilemma sets in.  Last year, Cal’s defense was their strength.  This year, it’s the offense.  Cal has already proven they can’t get into shootouts; they lost to a good Washington team and escaped in OT in Colorado.

Overall, I think Cal is better than they were last year.  Oregon is about on par with where they were last year.  Despite that, I think Oregon matches up better with Cal this year, and the game is at Autzen.

 Oregon 42    Cal 21

No. 5 Boise State (-21) at Fresno State Friday 9:00 PM EST

Remember when Fresno State was considered the mid-major, BCS buster?  The Bulldogs won 11 games in 2001 and followed that up with three straight nine-win seasons.  Coach Pat Hill put out a challenge of “anybody, anywhere,” which attracted the likes of LSU, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Wisconsin, over the years.  In short, they were Boise before Boise, just not quite as successful.

As a result of Boise’s rise to prominence, Fresno has become a somewhat forgotten team.  Despite this, and despite their 2-3 record, they have been consistently strong the past four years.

They’re led by Derek Carr at QB (David’s brother) and big play receivers Jalen Saunders and Rashad Evans (Saunders is averaging over 30 yards per catch).

Offense hasn’t been the Bulldogs’ issue.  They put up 29 points against Nebraska and 28 points against Ole Miss.  Their defense is what has been atrocious.  Giving up 36 to Cal, 42 to Nebraska and 38 to Ole Miss is not going to cut it.

That may tell the whole story as far as this game goes.  Kellen Moore and the Broncos offense should have no problem generating enough points to win this game.  Moore has been spreading the ball out evenly to three receivers—Mitch Burroughs, Matt Miller and Tyler Shoemaker.  They’ve recorded 216, 206 and 202 yards on the year, respectively.  That’s impressive.

Fresno isn’t an awful team, but they’re not in the same class as Boise, even if they’re playing Fresno.  They should have a tough time keeping the Broncos out of the end zone.  The only question is if they can produce enough offense to keep it close.

Boise State  41    Fresno State 21

No. 11 Texas (+8.5) No. 3 Oklahoma (in Dallas) Saturday 12:00 PM EST

Texas seemingly climbed the ranks more than anyone this past week.  Call it "conspiracy" as they promote a matchup between two highly ranked rivals, but…okay, I’ll call it conspiracy. 

All joking aside, Texas is playing well, and the annual red river rivalry gets an extra bit of gusto as both teams are undefeated in the contest for the first time since 2008. 

The Longhorns have benefited from getting off to hot starts the past two weeks.  Last week, they led 34-0 at the half to Iowa State.  The week before, they led 28-10 at the half in the Rose Bowl.  Building such a lead against OU will be much more difficult.

For Texas to be successful, they will need to get their running game going.  They are averaging over 200 yards per game with Malcolm Brown and Fozzie Whittaker.  Expect a low-scoring, close game if they can run.  If it gets into a shootout, OU will dominate.

Oklahoma 28   Texas 21

Maryland (+15.5) at No. 13 Georgia Tech 12:00 PM EST

GT did what contenders do—they went on the road and took care of business against an inferior opponent.  Last week in Raleigh, the Wreck built a 21-0 lead, and then, a 42-14 lead behind 296 yards rushing.

Maryland has struggled since their opening week win against Miami.  They dropped two in a row against West Virginia and Temple, before looking unimpressive against Towson.

Georgia Tech’s defense is the only weak spot of their team.  They gave up 21 late points against N.C. State in garbage time and 387 total yards.  They also gave up a late touchdown against UNC the previous week.  Their inability to close out games may come back to haunt them eventually but not this week.

GT 38    Maryland  21

Connecticut (+20.5) at No. 16 West Virginia 12:00 PM EST

Connecticut has fallen hard since their Big East title last year.  They are now 1-3 against FBS teams, with their lone win coming against Buffalo.  They haven’t gotten anything going on offense, and their defense has been unable to get timely stops.

A trip to Morgantown is not what the doctor ordered for the Huskies.  West Virginia rebounded nicely last week against Bowling Green, putting up 55 points on 643 yards!  RB Dustin Garrison was the star, rushing for 291 yards on 32 carries.  Points won’t be that easy to come by against UConn, but they should get enough.

West Virginia 42   UConn 17

Kentucky (+18.5) at No. 18 South Carolina 12:21 PM EST

South Carolina turned in the most disappointing performance last week and has been perhaps the most enigmatic team this season.  They beat Georgia in Athens, but barely beat Navy and only put up 21 against Vanderbilt before falling to Auburn at home. 

Stephen Garcia was less than stellar, throwing for 9-of-23 and two interceptions.  On the year, Garcia has nine interceptions.  Nine!  And only four touchdowns.

The question remains then, why did Marcus Lattimore not play a more integral role last week against Auburn?  Lattimore, one of the premiere running backs in the nation, only carried it 17 times against a porous Auburn defense. 

Carolina’s defense was unable to stop Auburn’s rushing attack all day, and eventually, with the game on the line, they gave up the deciding score.

Kentucky is developing into one of the worst BCS teams.  They rank 113th in passing yards and 96th in rushing yards.  Despite covering the spread against LSU, they managed only 115 yards from scrimmage.  They are completing passes at 49 percent and only rushing for 3.3 yards per carry.

South Carolina should have no problem against the Wildcats.  Then again, they should have beaten Auburn.  Count this as a matchup of two of the more disappointing teams in the SEC.

South Carolina 31   Kentucky 13

Wake Forest at Florida State 12:30 PM EST

Florida State- Wake Forest   12:30pm

Note: There is currently no spread, as the health/status of E.J. Manuel is in question.

The Seminoles really needed their BYE week last week to regroup after back-to-back losses.  Despite their disappointing start, the team remains talented on defense and can still manage a successful season.  This won’t occur until the Seminoles establish a run game, however; they’re 115th in the nation in rushing.

Wake Forest is quietly putting together a successful season.  They’re 3-1, with their lone loss being a 15-point blown effort against Syracuse the first week.  More importantly, they’re 2-0 in the ACC. 

QB Tanner Price is surprising everyone with his 63 percent completion rate and 1,119 yards.  Chris Givens is a big-play threat at wide receiver, already tallying 498 yards.

Wake Forest can keep the game close, whether Manuel or Trickett plays for the Seminoles.  Wake is playing at home but hasn’t played anyone close to the caliber of FSU yet.  FSU escapes.

FSU 27    Wake Forest 21

No. 16 Illinois (-16.5) at Indiana 2:30 PM EST

You can read a more thorough review of the Illinois Northwestern game here.    In short, it was ugly, but Illinois escaped by the hair on their chin.

Indiana has yet to win a game against an FCS opponent.  That being said, all of their losses have been by seven points or less—a truly astounding statistic.  

QB Dusty Kiel had trouble completing passes down the field against Penn State’s defense.  He threw for only a 49 percent completion percentage and averaged 4.09 yards per attempt. 

Indiana’s rush offense is equally defunct, rushing for 3.3 yards per carry on the season.

Illinois has now won three straight games by three points (the anti-Indiana, in a way).  Despite looking sloppy and playing poorly against Northwestern for three quarters, one cannot ignore the talent the Illini have.  Most notably, WR A.J. Jenkins, who was co-wide receiver of the week in the nation after his 12-catch, 268-yard performance. 

Illinois should make a more concerted effort to run the ball against Indiana and should be more successful.  Overall, they are much more talented than Indiana.

Illinois 35   Indiana 17

Boston College (+21.5) at No. 8 Clemson 3:30 PM EST

Clemson took the next step that we discussed they had to take.  Winning back-to-back games at home against FSU and Auburn was impressive, yes…but winning on the road at Virginia Tech was another story altogether.  Now, Clemson isn’t just in the driver’s seat of the ACC, they made the car and have voice operated controls…or something.

They’re loaded with talent.   Freshman WR Sammy Watkins is the quickest player in the nation.  Tajh Boyd has shown he can run, but he is still a pass-first QB and is an accurate one at that.  Finally, Dwayne Allen is a matchup nightmare at 6’4”, 255 pounds.  He has touchdowns in four of the five games.

Boston College has yet to beat an FCS team, and head coach Frank Spaziani is on a very hot seat.  They can’t run the ball, can’t throw and have had trouble putting the ball into the end zone.  Chase Rettig is completing only 52 percent of his passes and has a 5-4 TD-INT ratio.  Next, he has to go to death valley.

Clemson 38   Boston College 14

Kansas (+32) at No. 6 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM EST

Glass half full: Kansas’ offense is really good. 

Glass half empty: as good as the offense is, is as bad as the defense is.

Kansas jumped out to a 20-0 lead in their powder blue uniforms against Texas Tech last week before falling 45-34.  The week before, they gave up the record 604 rush yards to Georgia Tech.  Air or ground, Kansas’ defense is porous.

Enter Oklahoma State, arguably the most potent offense in the nation.  Oklahoma State had last week off after pulling off their come from behind win against the Aggies.  Weeden, Blackmon, Cooper and Randle are all for real, and the Cowboys should have no problem putting up numbers on the Jayhawks.

Sidenote—the schedule sets up well for the Cowboys.  They have OU, Baylor and Kansas State at home and have to travel to Texas next week.  Unless they come out napping and looking forward to playing the Longhorns, they roll Kansas.

Oklahoma State  56   Kansas 21

No. 17 Florida at No. 1 LSU 3:30 PM EST

Note:  There is currently no spread, as the health/status of John Brantley is unknown

Florida has the same talent they had last week.  It just turns out that they just might be one step below the big boys. 

Against Alabama, Florida couldn’t run the ball, averaging one half of a yard per carry.  They couldn’t really throw either.  Other than the first play, which netted a 65-yard touchdown, the Gators only gained 142 yards through the air.

Alabama was able to methodically move the ball down the field against the Gators, mainly from their rushing attack which averaged 5.3 yards per carry.  This doesn’t bode well for the Gators as they travel to Death Valley.

LSU had a tune-up game last week against Kentucky.   The Tigers were never in jeopardy of losing the game but never dominated either.  Instead of looking at their win against Kentucky, we have to examine their whole body of work.

They still have an impressive ground game—Ware has rushed for 323 yards and Ford for 322, talk about balance!   And they still play great defense and manage the game. 

Expecting a repeat dominance against Florida would be unreasonable.  But, the Tigers get the Gators at home and have learned a lot from watching the way Alabama beat them.  Don’t expect the same dominance but expect an LSU win.

LSU  28   Florida 17

Miami (+7) at No. 21 Virginia Tech 3:30 PM EST

Last week, Virginia Tech proved that you can’t line up with an inferior team and rely on your schedule alone.  The Hokies were totally outclassed against Clemson and suffered their biggest home loss since 2006. 

David Wilson ran the ball well and remains the lone bright spot for the Hokies.  QB Logan Thomas had trouble moving the ball and only threw for 125 yards.

Miami slept through the first quarter against Bethune-Cookman.  Not the best showing for the Hurricanes following their loss to Kansas State.  The Hurricanes have been mediocre on offense all year and above-average on defense.

They should have trouble scoring on the road at Virginia Tech.  Neither team possesses big weapons on offense, and this should be an ugly, low-scoring game. 

Virginia Tech 21   Miami 14

No. 22 Arizona State (-3) at Utah 3:30 PM EST

A few days after calling Utah a threat to win the Pac-12, the Utes went out and lost at home to an admittedly superior Washington team.  Utah still has a chance in the Pac-12 South, and thus, the Pac-12 championship, but Saturday is an absolute must win.

Utah couldn’t run the ball against Washington, which should be a cause of concern.  Worse yet, they turned the ball over five times.  Even worse yet, Jordan Wynn left the game with an injury to his left shoulder.  He is expected to play on Saturday.

Arizona State fell behind 13-0 to Oregon State before rallying to beat the outclassed Beavers.  ASU was their usual self-destructive self, turning the ball over four times and committing six penalties.

This is only the second time ASU is going on the road (they lost the first), and I am not totally sold on them yet.  They certainly have talent but still haven’t proven they can play mistake-free football and win close games.  With that being said...

Utah 31   ASU 28

Missouri (-3) at No. 20 Kansas State 3:30 PM EST

This is one of the rarer things you will see.  A ranked team against an unranked team, with the ranked team playing at home…as an underdog.  I am as confused about it as you are.

Kansas State can play though.  They ran for 210 yards against Baylor and forced an unlikely turnover of Robert Griffin III in the waning moments of the game to escape with a 36-35 win.  It was an unlikely victory, as they outscored Baylor 10-0 in the fourth quarter but a victory nonetheless.  Even after allowing 35 points, Kansas State is 17th in the nation in points allowed.

Missouri is one of the nations overlooked mystery teams.  The secret with the Tigers is that they can actually run the ball this year—averaging 253 yards per game, good for eighth in the nation.  Their effort against Oklahoma, a 10-point loss, seems to be overlooked at this point, and they missed a field goal at the end of regulation that would have given them a win at Arizona State.

After playing poorly against Miami-Ohio, QB James Franklin has improved his accuracy and passing.  He now has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 260 yards. 

The star, however, is Henry Josey.  Josey has only carried the ball 43 times, but for 533 yards, a 12.4 average!  In the receiving corps, T.J. Moe remains the star.

After picking Kansas State to win last week and writing that Kansas State had a chance to earn a BCS berth, it would seem dumb of me to pick Mizzou, but that’s what I’m doing.  I am intrigued by this game, however, and I expect a very close one.

Mizzou 31   Kansas State 30

Vanderbilt (+28.5) at No. 2 Alabama 7:00 PM EST

Give credit to Vanderbilt for winning the first three games.  Unfortunately, they had to go on the road in the SEC afterwards. 

After starting 3-0, Vandy traveled to South Carolina where they promptly totaled 77 yards.  Seriously. 

Now they have to travel to Alabama, who is probably only the best team in the nation.  Alabama dominated Florida on the road in all facets of the game.  They ran the ball, passed it when necessary and shut the Gators down on defense. 

Vanderbilt shouldn’t put up too many points on the road, and that’s that.

Alabama 38   Vanderbilt 7

No. 15 Auburn (+9.5) at No. 10 Arkansas 7:00 PM EST

Auburn has skyrocketed from unranked to 15th, and that is just one of the mysterious things regarding them.  After having to come back against Utah State and losing to Clemson, the Tigers went on the road to beat South Carolina.  Much has been made about the Tigers' exodus of talent, but it turns out, they may be talented this year too.

Michael Dyer and Auburn now square off against another enigmatic team—Arkansas.  The Razorbacks were dominated by Alabama (join the club) and then had to come back against Texas A&M.  The fact remains, they did come back, and they are 4-1.

Arkansas outscored Texas A&M 25-3 in the second half, and Tyler Wilson threw for 510 yards!  The Hogs couldn’t get a running game going, but they didn’t have to.  The dark spot was that they commited an astounded 14 penalties for 112 yards.

This is a huge SEC West game.  It is a rematch of the insane 65-43 game in Auburn last year. The winner has a legitimate shot to finish third in the division (which in any other division sounds like a loss).  The game is at Arkansas, and I’m a lot more confident in Wilson’s ability through the air than I am in Stephen Garcia’s.

Arkansas 42   Auburn  28

No. 12 Michigan at Northwestern 7:00 PM EST

Note:  There is no spread, as the health/status of Dan Persa is in question.

Michigan has emerged as the favorite in the Big Ten Legends division (yes, ahead of Nebraska).  Last week was a total team win against Minnesota—winning 58-0 on 363 rushing yards.  The Wolverines held the Gophers to 177 total yards, and played a near perfect game.

Northwestern looked like a lock to win in Champaign.  Then, Dan Persa re-injured himself, and they were unable to move the ball.  Worse yet, they couldn’t cover A.J. Jenkins, and they blew a 28-10 and 35-31 lead. 

Persa made some amazing plays that won’t show up in the box score.  His propensity to scramble, keep plays alive and convert plays for first downs was truly on display Saturday in Champaign.  Without him, the Wildcats aren’t the same team.

Kudos should be given to Northwestern’s rush defense.  They made Illinois beat them through the air, which unfortunately for the Wildcats, they did.  That being said, they held the Illini to just 82 rushing yards.  Is a repeat performance in the mix?

Persa’s health remains the huge question.  With him, maybe Northwestern can move the ball and put enough points up on the board to keep the game competitive.  Without him, they will have a difficult time. 

Michigan 31   Northwestern 17

No. 24 Texas A&M (-6) at Texas Tech 7:00 PM EST

Mike Sherman is having a difficult time having his team close.  The Aggies have blown back-to-back three possession leads. 

It’s hard to look for bright spots, but we can say that the Aggies offense has been formidable.  They’re 23rd in passing and 15th in rushing.  Unfortunately, they’re 2-2.

Tommy Tuberville is quietly building a contender in Lubbock.  The Red Raiders are ninth in passing yards and fourth in points scored.  More importantly, they’re 4-0.  QB Seth Doege has thrown 14 TDs and just one INT.  Additionally, Texas Tech is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. 

A&M showed a resolve in their comeback win against Nevada two weeks ago, a resolve that Texas A&M may not have.  But, A&M has more talent, and that alone may be enough to squeak out a close win in Lubbock.

Texas A&M  38   Texas Tech 35

Iowa State (+15.5) at No. 25 Baylor 7:00 PM EST

Both teams are coming off their first loss.  Baylor’s more devastating as Robert Griffin III played well but ultimately turned the ball over when he could least afford to.  Iowa State was dominated by Texas early, and 380 total yards couldn’t help them from a 23-point loss.

Three turnovers doomed the Cyclones, and Steele Jantz was forced to throw the ball 51 times.  They’ll look to try and establish a running attack against Baylor, a team that gave up 210 rushing yards to Kansas State.

Baylor remains the more talented team, but it is clear they are a bit overrated at this point.  Until they put together some defensive stops, they won’t dominate anyone, and they won’t compete for a Big12 title.  Their talent gets them by the Cyclones, but it isn’t a blowout.

Baylor 31    Iowa State 21

Colorado (+27) at No. 7 Stanford 8:00 PM EST

Shayne Skov or not, Stanford kept rolling last week as they took care of business against the Bruins.  Andrew Luck was efficient, completing 23-of-27 passes for 227 yards, while Stepfan Taylor rushed for 112 on the ground.   

Colorado fell victim to Washington State, which is becoming less and less rare.  For as much talent as Colorado may have, they are only 1-4.  Last week, they rushed for 161 yards, which is a drastic improvement on their 101 yards per game average. 

Stanford hasn’t been challenged very much, and they were seemingly going through the motions against UCLA.  Despite this, they bested the Bruins by 26.

Colorado can’t hang with Stanford.  Their best shot is if they can throw the ball against the Cardinal and if Stanford plays lackadaisical.  Otherwise, expect another big margin of victory.

Stanford  48   Colorado 23

Ohio State (+10) at No. 14 Nebraska 8:30 PM EST

Nebraska got exposed as the team that they are.  They aren’t very good on defense, and they cannot throw the ball.  Wisconsin stopped the running attack, made Nebraska throw and ran against the Huskers, and the game wasn’t even close.  It remains to be seen, however, if Ohio State can execute a gameplan similar to Wisconsin’s.

OSU’s offense looked pathetic on Saturday, gaining only 178 yards and putting up seven points in the final minutes.  Braxton Miller was pulled for Bauserman, but neither QB played well.  Combined, they threw for 143 yards.  They only added 35 yards on the ground. 

Both programs are storied beyond belief, but both are terribly overrated.  Nebraska has many deficiencies that will show against good teams, but playing OSU at home, they should squeak by.

Nebraska 27   Ohio State 17