College Football 2011: Predicting Which Undefeated Teams Will Lose in Week 6

As we enter Week 6 of the 2011 season, the picture is beginning to get a little bit clearer.

Alabama and LSU are clearly the top two teams in the country. Oklahoma is not far behind, and Russell Wilson is making everyone in Madison just a little bit happier than normal.

Boise State got one vote in the latest AP poll and is likely to run the table this season (TCU should no longer be an obstacle) barring any unforeseen collapses.

Oklahoma State’s National Title picture will live and die with their game against Oklahoma, and no one on the east coast can stay up late enough to watch Stanford’s Andrew Luck. 

Fifteen teams in the FBS remain undefeated heading into Week 6, including five from the Big 12.

Most will go into Week 7 with the same goose egg sitting on the latter part of their record, but for others, this is where they taste the other end of the spectrum. 

Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) over Texas (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)

One of these undefeated teams will lose this week.

The Red River Rivalry has been played in Dallas since 1923 and certainly has helped Texas in that facet.

The Sooners are 41-59-5 all-time against the Longhorns and have lost four of the last six. 

Texas has been impressive as of late and totally shut down a hot Iowa State team on their own field. They forced three Cyclone turnovers and frustrated QB Steele Jantz.

Oklahoma, too, is on a roll. They put a beating on Ball State mentally and physically, culminating in a 56-point win. Ryan Broyles set a new Big 12 record for career receptions (304) in the process. 

The last four Red River Rivalry games have all been decided by 10 points or fewer, and the same may occur this year.

The offensive firepower of the Sooners will be too much for Texas. They will handle the two-quarterback approach of David Ash and Case McCoy. Neither of them have played in such an important game, and the atmosphere may be too much. 

The Sooners end the Longhorns' undefeated season here.

Missouri (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) over Kansas State (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)

Kansas State is coming off a huge win over Robert Griffin III and Baylor last week.

Griffin was picked off by LB Arthur Brown in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter to set up a game-winning field goal for the Wildcats.

Their defense forced Griffin to throw eight incompletions and one interception on the day (four less than what he had on the season prior to the game), but he still managed 346 yards and five touchdowns.

They are vulnerable, and when Missouri arrives in Manhattan, QB James Franklin and RB Henry Josey will bring the heat. 

Missouri had a week off after giving then-No. 1 Oklahoma a run for their money, but they could not knock them off for the second straight year.

The Kansas State rush defense is one of the best in the country, currently ranked 17th and averaging 87.5 yards per game. They have yet to play someone like Henry Josey.

In the past two games, the sophomore has a combined 396 yards. He’s tough, quick, smart and is a great complement to James Franklin.  The QB has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and ran for 260 more in this young 2011 season. 

Missouri has beaten Kansas State five times in a row and outscored the Wildcats 87-44 their last two visits. Head Coach Bill Snyder will have his hands full for the second consecutive week, but I don’t expect them to pull this one out in the end. 

Northwestern (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) over Michigan (5-0, 1-0 Big Ten)

I smell a trap game.

These two Big Ten teams have not met since 2008 in Ann Arbor when Northwestern handed Michigan their eighth loss of the season, marking the school's most losses in a single season in 129 years of football.

Yes, that was a devastating day in Michigan history, but they didn’t have a man named Denard Robinson at the time.

He has electrified defenses this year to the tune of 793 yards passing, 603 rushing and 14 total touchdowns.

They are coming off a successful defense (and I use that word loosely) of the Little Brown Jug with a monstrous win over Minnesota, 58-0, and will hit the road for the first time this season. 

Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa returned to the field last week against then-No. 24 Illinois and nearly pulled the upset.

They were up 28-17 entering the fourth quarter but couldn’t hold the lead. Persa threw for an unusually low 123 yards, but four of his passes went for touchdowns (career-high).

It was his first game since tearing his Achilles tendon last season, and he was pulled from the game in the fourth after what looked like an aggravation of the same injury.

If he is healthy enough to play Saturday against Michigan, he could cause big problems for their secondary. 

This prediction lies with the health of Persa, but if he is capable of taking the field, this upset is more than possible. 

East Carolina (1-3, 0-1 C-USA) over Houston (5-0, 1-0 C-USA)

In Conference USA, offense is the name of the game. Defenses are non-existent, and shootouts are a weekly occurrence.

UTEP entered last week’s game against Houston averaging 338.8 yards per game. They were 2-2 and barely beat Stony Brook in Week 1 at home.

Against Houston, they looked like Trevor Vittatoe was still at quarterback. They scored 42 points and gained 538 yards from scrimmage—too bad for them Houston scored 49 and gained 710 yards.

The Cougars could not stop the running game at all. Joe Banyard had 143 yards on the season and went 240 against Houston.

Head Coach Kevin Sumlin needs to solve some problems if he doesn’t want this to be a weekly event. 

East Carolina averages 291.3 yards per game passing behind quarterback Dominique Davis and Houston’s defense allows 413.4 total yards per game. Case Keenum will surely put up huge numbers, as he does every week, but his defense will have to dial it up several notches if they want to win this one. 

Texas A&M (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) over Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)

The Aggies have lost two in a row and are in desperate need for a win.

They had an 18-point lead over Arkansas at halftime, but a different team came out of the tunnel to play after the break.

To pour salt in their wound, the big stat of the game was that A&M hasn’t beaten an SEC team in 16 years. They will surely have many more chances in the near future to break that streak. 

On the other side of this one, Texas Tech QB Seth Doege has played like a star.

He’s thrown for 1,315 yards for 14 touchdowns and only one interception. They have scored 35 points or more in every game this season and are ranked seventh in the country in total offense (525 yards per game).

Unfortunately for them, they may be in the wrong place at the wrong time when the Aggies come into town. Three losses in a row could put a lid on the season for them, and they will do anything they can to prevent it.

A&M is more than capable of winning this one—in fact, it’s expected.