NFL Predictions: Week 4 Picks

A month of football has already been played so far in this 2011 season.

We now move onto October and the fourth week of the year.

We have a few surprise teams.

Like the Buffalo Bills, who haven't been to the playoffs since Doug Flutie was the quarterback and Wade Phillips was the coach.

Yet, they are 3-0 and on top of the AFC East.

And then there are the Detroit Lions, who haven't been to the playoffs since 1999, when Bobby Ross was the coach and Charlie Batch took over as the quarterback.

And they are also 3-0 and tied for first in the NFC North.

Can Buffalo and Detroit keep it up and move on to 4-0? It won't be easy for either of them. But a lot of fans are rooting for them to do well in 2011.

Week 4 will have a lot of good games, and teams are starting to establish their identities early.

Who wins in Week 4? Lets find out in this week's picks.

Last week, I went 9-7 and for the season, I am 29-18.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Do you think the Cowboys regret cutting Andre Gurode with the game Phil Costa had last week?

Costa botched about five snaps to Romo and luckily for the Cowboys, none of them cost them the game.

Tony Romo, playing with a few injuries, definitely gutted out the victory against the Redskins.

Romo isn't the only one banged up, as Felix Jones and Dez Bryant are also playing with injuries.

This week, it won't get any easier for the 2-1 Cowboys facing the upstart Lions.

Yep, remember the Lions, that same team who hasn't been to the playoffs since 1999.

They're 3-0 under Jim Schwartz and Matthew Stafford.

They were down by 20 against the Vikings on the road, yet they staged an amazing comeback to beat Minnesota and stay undefeated.

The Lions are becoming battle-tested early on, especially with two big wins on the road.

But unfortunately, I think the Cowboys will trip up the Lions this week to give them their first loss.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Lions 20

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

I picked the Eagles to beat my Giants last week, and that came around to bite me in the butt.

Michael Vick was playing with concussion symptoms, and the Giants didn't make it any easier on him.

They battered and beat him up, and eventually, he got knocked out of the game by a Chris Canty hit, which was first ruled as a broken hand, but was eventually ruled as a hand contusion.

Vick has said he'll be ready to go for the game, and it's a good thing too, because Mike Kafka didn't look that great in his place.

LeSean McCoy has been a bright spot for the Eagles, as he has been very hard for defenses to bring down.

The 49ers are coming in at 2-1 after a very sloppy 13-8 win over the Bengals on the road.

But, a win is a win, and in this league, you take any that you get.

But if the 49ers play like that for a second week in a row, it won't translate into a win.

With the Eagles looking for a rebound victory and to get out of last place, I expect them to win at home.

Prediction: Eagles 28, 49ers 16

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

The Redskins were very close to going 3-0.

They lost the lead to the Cowboys, but they gave the ball back to Washington with some time left in the fourth quarter, but a sack and fumble by Rex Grossman cost them the game.

What was good about Washington on Monday night was their defense, as they didn't allow a single touchdown to the Cowboys, and instead six field goals.

But the problem was the offense, as they only scored one touchdown and three field goals and at times, looked unimpressive.

They will need a bounce-back win if they want to stay near the top of the NFC East.

This week, Washington is on the road again against a struggling Rams team.

The week before, the Rams looked like they could have beaten the Giants.

Last week, they were embarrassed at home against the Ravens.

They are still a young team that is developing, and Steve Spagnuolo has the patience for them.

But, for a team that was a game away from winning the division last year, they still look really raw with all of their mistakes.

This week, Washington's defense should take care of Bradford and the Rams.

Prediction: Redskins 21, Rams 10

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

The Bears are off to a slow start.

After their first week dominating win against the Falcons, the Bears have sputtered against the Saints and Packers.

The offense hasn't gotten going the way that Jay Cutler and offensive coordinator Mike Martz has hoped, but it's still early, and things can change.

And what better for a way to get the offense going than to play at home against a young Panthers team.

In the first two weeks, the Panthers fought hard but lost to the Cardinals and Packers.

Last week, it wasn't the most impressive win for rookie Cam Newton, but he finally got his first NFL win by knocking off the Jaguars and their rookie, Blaine Gabbert.

It was also the first NFL win for Ron Rivera, too, who is in his rookie year as a head coach.

Now, they'll try to make it two in a row on the road against Chicago.

The one thing that Carolina has yet to establish early is their running game with DeAngelo Williams.

It's mostly been Newton running the show on offense, and already racking up over 1,000 passing yards.

But, against an experienced defense, I think Newton will have his struggles this week with the Chicago defense.

Prediction: Bears 26, Panthers 17

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

For three weeks in a row, I picked against the Bills.

And for three straight weeks, the Bills have made me look foolish by pulling off huge wins.

And now, led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is playing well beyond anyone's expectations, the Bills offense has looked good.

In each of their first three games, they have scored 41, 38 and 34 points, which is outstanding.

Their defense has been prone to giving up points, though, as they also gave up over 30 points to the Raiders and Patriots.

Despite that, they still picked off Tom Brady four times en route to the 3-0 record.

Now, they will play a struggling Bengals team.

The Bengals have had a lot of close games this year, and for two weeks in a row, they lost two games by fewer than seven points.

Against the 49ers last week, they looked horrible, scoring only eight points.

Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton hasn't been impressive.

He'll continue to go through his growing pains, as the Bengals are in for a long year.

Buffalo should go to 4-0 in this one.

Prediction: Bills 31, Bengals 13

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

This game is a very interesting one for a couple of reasons.

One, they are both at 2-1 and the winner moves on to 3-1 and could really get their season going.

And the other, both teams have running backs who haven't gotten going yet.

For the Titans, Chris Johnson has come out of the gate struggling, with 46 carries and just 98 yards with no touchdowns.

And if you have him on your fantasy team, like I do, he's killed you early.

The Titans need Johnson to get going if they want any success.

Especially with the loss of Kenny Britt for the season with a torn ACL, which is a huge blow to the passing game.

And for the Browns, Peyton Hillis has also come out rather sluggish too, with 44 carries and 151 yards and only two touchdowns.

Montario Hardesty got the bulk of the carries against the Dolphins last week and if he continues to be impressive, he could take the job from Hillis.

Hillis needs to have a big game to keep the critics off his back.

I think this one will be close, but in the end, the Browns should go to 3-1 at home.

Prediction: Browns 24, Titans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

This is the classic matchup between a good offense and a good defense.

The Steelers went into Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football and had a fight on their hands with the Colts.

Even without Peyton Manning, the Colts weren't going to go down without a fight, but in the end, the Colts lost to the better team that was expected to win.

The one thing that has to be concerning for Mike Tomlin is the early play by Ben Roethlisberger, who has four interceptions and just three touchdowns.

Roethlisberger will need to play better if he wants his team to have success in 2011.

For Houston, their offense has been pretty good, as it was last week against the Saints.

The only problem was, their defense gave up 40 points in a tough loss and 23 points in the fourth quarter.

That won't get it done for the Texans and their defense.

In their first two games, they knocked off two bad teams in the Colts and Dolphins. The Saints game was their first against a good opponent.

Now, against the Steelers, it's their second in a row. How does Houston handle it? How does Matt Schaub handle the Pittsburgh defense?

I think Pittsburgh gets by in this one, but not by much.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Texans 23

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars

OK, so in Week 1, the Saints lost Marques Colston for a few weeks due to an injury.

Do you think that has had any effect whatsoever on Drew Brees? Not really. He has 1,059 passing yards in just three games already.

Brees is a machine, and he makes his receivers that much better, which is why he's one of the best in the league.

They rebounded late in the fourth quarter to knock off the Texans at home last week.

Now at 2-1, they will travel to face the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has hardly looked impressive in 2011.

First it was Luke McCown, who had no business being a starter. Now it's Blaine Gabbert.

Gabbert lost his first NFL start against the Panthers. Now, he'll play an even better team against the Saints.

Gabbert, like Andy Dalton in Cincinnati, will go through his growing pains as well with this team.

New Orleans and Brees should win this one easily.

Prediction: Saints 30, Jaguars 13

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

A battle of 0-3 teams. Oh joy.

What's surprising is the Vikings starting out at 0-3.

Minnesota has played a lot better than their record shows. But their only problem is they have had trouble finishing their games in the fourth quarter.

In each of their games, they lost the lead to the Chargers, Buccaneers and Lions.

I don't think Donovan McNabb signed up for this kind of start when he was traded to Minnesota over the summer.

But, the Vikings will look for their first win against another 0-3 team.

The difference with the Chiefs 0-3 team is they are not a good team in 2011.

They lost Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL, which is simply devastating to this team.

As far as Matt Cassel goes, yeah, it hasn't been pretty for him with five interceptions and only three touchdowns.

The Chiefs are in for an extremely long season. Minnesota gets their first victory on the road.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Chiefs 14

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

So, guess what happens when you pick against your favorite team? They end up pulling out an upset and winning.

The last time I picked against the Giants was back in December 1998 when the Broncos were undefeated, and the Giants won that one, too.

Yeah, I was taught a lesson then, just like I was taught one last week.

Eli Manning threw for four touchdowns and may have found a new target in Victor Cruz.

Cruz had three catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in their win against the Eagles.

Can he duplicate that performance against the Cardinals on the road?

The Cardinals have gotten off to a slow start at 1-2 and lost 13-10 to the Seahawks.

Yet, at 1-2, the Cardinals are very much in the thick of the NFC West division race because of how bad the teams are in the division.

The Cardinals will look to go to Larry Fitzgerald, as he will try to take apart the Giants secondary.

The last two times the Giants have played at the University of Phoenix Stadium, the Giants have won both of those games, one of which was Super Bowl XLII back in February 2008.

The Cardinals will keep it close, but I think the Giants will squeak one out here on the road in a building they have had success in.

Prediction: Giants 33, Cardinals 27

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Early on, it looked like the Patriots would romp the Bills.

But the Bills fought back and overcame a 21-10 halftime deficit to knock off the Patriots.

But what was surprising was Tom Brady throwing four interceptions in the game.

Brady still threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns in the game, but throwing four picks will not help your team at all.

And now, the Patriots will be looking to rebound from the tough loss in another road game against the Raiders.

The Raiders were in a heavyweight fight with the Jets last week.

In the first half, it was all tied up at 17-17. And then in the second half, the Raiders offense took off against the Jets defense.

More importantly, it was Darren McFadden who torched the Jets defense, rushing for 171 yards and two touchdowns.

Can McFadden have another game like that again against the Patriots?

If Bill Belichick has anything to say about it, not very likely.

Oakland will give the Patriots a fight, but Brady should find a way to get the win on the road.

Prediction: Patriots 40, Raiders 31

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

The Falcons are a team of two different sides.

There is the Falcons team that plays at home and puts up a ton of points on offense and looks like a playoff contender.

Then there is the Falcons team that plays on the road and hardly looks like a playoff team.

That's the early story of Atlanta in 2011, sitting at 1-2.

I thought last week, Matt Ryan would shake off the road woes, but Tampa Bay took care of that.

And they will play a Seattle team that looks inspired now.

In the game against the Cardinals, it wasn't pretty and it certainly wasn't flashy, but the Seahawks got it done.

What was important for Seattle was getting good play out of Marshawn Lynch, who carried the ball 19 times for 73 yards.

And what was even more important was getting Sidney Rice back from injury, as he caught eight passes for 109 yards.

If Seattle wants any hope of winning, they need that big-play ability from Rice.

Until Atlanta can show they can win on the road, I will take the Seahawks with a win at home.

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Falcons 17

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

The defending champions are looking like how a team should play following a championship year.

The Packers are 3-0 and they are showing no signs of slowing down.

It shows the great job done by Mike McCarthy and his staff.

And early on, Aaron Rodgers is having another great season, throwing for 917 yards and eight touchdowns with only one interception.

Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over much, which is a big reason why the Packers offense is successful.

Rodgers also has a lot of great targets to throw to, like Jermichael Finley last week, who just killed the Bears secondary.

Now, Rodgers and Co. will feast on the Broncos coming to Lambeau Field.

The Broncos are 1-2, but have been very competitive and tough in each of their first three games.

But this week, they are in a game where they are over-matched.

Denver had trouble trying to stop Matt Hasselbeck last week against the Titans.

Against Rodgers and Green Bay, it won't be pretty.

Green Bay will win in a rout.

Prediction: Packers 37, Broncos 13

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

This is the type of game the Chargers need for their season to get going.

In the first three weeks, the Chargers have fought hard to be 2-1. They haven't had an easy game yet.

But with the 0-3 Dolphins coming into their building, this could be a game where Philip Rivers has a great game.

So far, Rivers has thrown for 979 yards and four touchdowns, but he has thrown six interceptions.

Rivers has to limit the turnovers if the Chargers want to have any success in 2011.

Against Miami, that shouldn't be a problem.

The Dolphins are in big trouble.

Tony Sparano is definitely on the hot seat in Miami and things aren't looking good for this team.

Can the Dolphins get their first win of the year and attempt to get out of the cellar of the AFC East?

On the road, not likely. The Dolphins get dropped to 0-4 this week.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Dolphins 10

Sunday Night Football: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Last week was a really tough loss for the Jets.

Everyone thought they would go to 3-0 against Oakland, but they got swallowed up in the Black Hole and lost to the Raiders on the road.

So now, they are 2-1 and have an even tougher game on the road to play against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

Rex Ryan faces off against his former team in the Ravens in what perhaps is the best game on the schedule of Week 4.

The Ravens rebounded from a tough loss on the road to the Titans to physically dominate the Rams in their building 37-7.

Now, coming home at 2-1, they will have a very tough AFC match-up with the Jets.

When the cameras are on, Baltimore plays very tough games.

But, as we saw early on in Week 1, so do the Jets.

On paper, this game looks favored by the Ravens, and if Ray Rice has a game against the Jets defense like Darren McFadden did, it could certainly go that way.

But with Ryan, he motivates his players and his team to rebound from tough losses.

So in an upset on the road, I'm going to take the Jets on a late field goal by Nick Folk.

Prediction: Jets 24, Ravens 21

Monday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If anyone didn't think Josh Freeman wasn't for real back in 2010, they certainly are believing in him in 2011.

After their Week 1 loss to the Lions, Tampa Bay has won two really tough games against the Vikings and Falcons.

Freeman hasn't been flashy or at times pretty in the games, but he's winning, and in Tampa, that's all they want from him.

And everyone on Monday Night will finally get to see how good Freeman is against a bad Colts team.

For the second week in a row, the Colts will be on national television minus Peyton Manning.

Kerry Collins played so lousy, he finally got benched in place of Curtis Painter.

Painter played half-way decently against the Steelers, but even he wasn't good enough to beat Pittsburgh.

With Manning done for the year, 2011 is a lost season for Indy.

Tampa should win fairly easily at home to move to 3-1.

Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Colts 17