Alabama Recruiting: SEC Changes and 'Bama's Chances at Dorial Green-Beckham

Dorial Green-Beckham is the consensus No. 1 high school prospect. He is the rarest wide receiver breeds.  He is 6'6", 220 lbs., yet runs under a 4.5 40-yard. 

It's not so much his size that has everyone's attention, but the skill set that goes along with it. 

He is currently poised to take the record for receiving yards in a high school career, and not just his school's record book. No, he's about to become the most prolific high school wide receiver in U.S. history. 

He currently has 4,858 yards, good for fourth in history and fewer than 500 yards shy of ex-Georgia Bulldog A.J. Green's 2nd place record. The first place record is 5,867 yards. 

He's still got six regular season games left and his team is sure to get some playoff time. The record will be his by season's end.  Not convinced he can haul in 1,000 more yards this year?

He garnered 1,616 yards his sophomore year, and 1,706 the next. With only four games played in 2011 he has had 43 receptions for 735 yards. That's about 183 yards per game. Even if his team did not make the playoffs he would take the record anyway at this pace.

What are Alabama's chances at this elite wideout? 

First, there have been rumors he wants to stay close to home, and has a lot of pressure to do so it seems. Being from Springfield, Mo., many are thinking this is a good sign for Mizzou. It is the biggest football university in Missouri, so it makes sense since he wants to stay close to home, right? Wrong!

With I-44, from his home, Springfield, to Columbia, home of the Mizzou Tigers, is 160 miles, or about a three-hour drive. The drive from Springfield, Mo., to Fayetteville, Ark., is about two-thirds of that and we all know what lives in Fayetteville. 

Woo Pig! Sooie! That's right—none other than the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

Green-Beckham may or may not have "state pride" motivation to go to Mizzou, and if he does not then Arkansas is going to be heavily favored to win his services, especially with the Hog's reputation for being a pass-heavy offense. 

Arkansas and Mizzou are the two closest "big" schools, though Norman, Okla., home of the Sooners, is about five hours away. Poor Tuscaloosa is darn near 10 hours away (a drive that personally took me 13 hours, because I drive like a grandma). 

Now, to the main point of the article: How could the SEC tremors affect Dorial Green-Beckham's decision?

Arkansas and Alabama are both in the prestigious SEC, and the even more prestigious SEC West, and will stay there regardless of conference additions.  Alabama is also a perennial contender for the national title. 

Missouri is in the crumbling Big 12, and have thus far been left dry after banging on Chateau SEC's door.

Green-Beckham wants to stay close to home, and even assuming that he has school spirit for Mizzou, he'd be hard-pressed to justify to himself committing to an "on the rise" program in a conference that is falling apart under the smothering of Texas, the king of Hungry Hungry Hippos: Media Blitz version. 

If Mizzou actually makes it into the SEC—and they seem to be the leading contenders for the 14th school—they will have a real shot at him. Until then, Arkansas is quivering with anticipation. 

Here's a breakdown of the three school's strengths with a star rating system (one least, five greatest):

Alabama

• Proximity to home—two stars.
• Conference Prestige—five stars.
• Passing Offense—four stars. (Less without a prototypical receiver like Julio Jones or today's subject, -Green-Beckham himself). 
• National Championship Contender—five stars
• Pro Factory—five stars

Arkansas

• Proximity to home—five stars
• Conference Prestige—five stars
• Passing Offense—five stars
• National Championship Contender—two stars (Due to rough SEC schedule).
• Pro Factory—three stars

Mizzou

• Proximity to home—five stars
• Conference Prestige—two stars.  (Current state of Big 12, not past)
• Passing Offense—three-to-four stars
• National Championship Contender—two stars
• Pro Factory—three stars

Let's break down what must happen for the Crimson Tide to land Dorial Green-Beckham:

He must be persuaded to cross proximity to home off his list of wants. This puts 'Bama on equal footing with Arkansas and Mizzou. 

He must realize a run-heavy offense could suit him just as well as an aerial attack school. Julio Jones did, after all, go sixth overall to the Atlanta Falcons in the 2011 NFL draft, after they practically traded half their franchise to get the sixth pick. Alabama airs the ball out more than people give them credit for, and Nick Saban must make this known to Dorial.

It must be emphasized that the SEC is the only place for a player of his caliber, and Mizzou must stay stuck in the Big 12, and in the shadow of Texas. 

He must make playing for a national championship a top priority.

Nick Saban must make it clear that Alabama will groom him for the NFL better than any other team on his shortlist.

If you go by this design, Arkansas has a leg up in the race when Green-Beckham's desire to stay close to home is factored in—never underestimate Mommy. Any murmurs that Dorial is Mizzou-bound are too tied up in the assumption that he has a lot of school spirit for the Tigers. 

Alabama, however, still has a very strong chance at him.  Nick Saban will downsize the importance of home-proximity, toot the SEC horn, flash his two national championship rings and point at Julio Jones as an example of his ability to turn a high school boy into a bona fide NFL player. 

In my opinion, Mizzou staying in the Big 12 is going to kill their chances at Green-Beckham, as Arkansas is closer to home anyway.

All Nick Saban has to do is convince him that he'll get plenty of stats in a "run-first offense", and make it clear that Arkansas has no shot at a national title while the Sabanator is in Tuscaloosa. 

'Bama's chances look good, and Julio Jones's reputation could be the deciding factor.