NFL Betting: Week 13 Spread Picks

NFL Betting: Week 13 Spread Picks

I've been making picks on every game this year since Week Two, but this is the first time I've published my picks on B/R. So far, my combined record is 86-70-4 (wins-losses-ties) and last week I was 10-6-0.

Now we'll see how well I do when my spread picks go public!

If you would like to see my straight-up picks, you can follow this link.

Also, please note that since this was published after Thanksgiving, there are no Thanksgiving picks listed.

Thanksgiving Record: 1-2-0

Wins: Tennessee (-11).

Losses: Seattle (+12.5), Arizona (+3)

Best Bets

Atlanta (+5) @ San Diego

San Diego is playing the worst they in four seasons, and Atlanta is just the opposite. The Falcons are starting to play like the 2005 NFC Championship team again! I pick the Falcons to win this game, so an extra five points is always welcome!

2.  Miami (-7.5) @ St. Louis

Since St. Louis beat back to back NFC East teams (Washington & Dallas), they've gone back to playing like they did the first few weeks! They're getting blown left and right every week, and 6-5 Miami has to know that they need this easy victory if they want a chance at an AFC wild card.

3. Kansas City @ Oakland (-3)

Home-field advantage is thought to be worth three points in the world of betting, so that means that without the three Oakland gives up for home field advantage, these teams are even?!

Personally, that makes no sense at all. Oakland is coming off a last-second loss to Miami, which was then followed by a rout of Denver last week, plus they have two more wins than KC. Make any sense why the spread is only three to you? 

Some Other Easy Pennies

4.  Indianapolis (-5)@ Cleveland

Cleveland's last hopes are gone after losing to Houston badly last week, and Indianapolis is right in the AFC mix at 7-4. Five points seems quite a bit too little to me.

5.  New York Giants (-3.5) @ Washington

Washington's playoff hopes are going down the drain quickly, and the Giants are the best team in the NFL and not likely to be too affected by the loss of Plaxico Burress. Three-and-a-half points doesn't nearly cover the difference in talent and current playing level between these two teams.

6.  Jacksonville @ Houston (-3)

Jacksonville is very disappointed and depressed with their season, and the win in Cleveland has given this Texan team, who is better than their 4-7 record shows, some spirit. I just have a feeling that three points is too little of a spread for this game.

7.  Carolina (+3) @ Green Bay

I'm not sure why, but something deep down tells me that Carolina will lose by less than three or win this game. One reason why might be this: Panthers HB DeAngelo Williams is looking for his sixth straight 100-yard rushing game, and the supposedly-harsh Packers defense is 22nd against the run, while the Panthers are sixth in rushing (after being 16th in rushing after their first five games).

The Rest of my Picks

8.  New Orleans (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay

Last week's passing explosion against the Saints the slight edge in this important divisional game.

9.  San Francisco @ Buffalo (-6.5)

Cold northern-New York weather + a Bills team that scored 54 points last game + a 'Niners team that gives up 28.2 ppg = a rout towards Buffalo, or at least a large enough margin of victory that they'll cover a 6.5 point spread.

10.  Baltimore (-7) @ Cincinnati

Most seem to doubt me on this pick, but I'm impressed with the Ravens and their offense after they beat a good team, the Eagles, 35-7. Cincinnati's loss to Pittsburgh took a lot out of them last week.

11.  Denver @ New York Jets (-8)

Should be a close game with the spread, but Denver's loss to the Raiders was terrible, and that division is nearly wrapped up for them, anyway.

Toss-ups

12.  Pittsburgh (+1) @ New England

This game is a toss-up in itself, but with a one-point spread, the winner usually wins with the spread, too. Unless you win by half a point. But you can't do that.

13.  Chicago (+3) @ Minnesota

Another good game that I can't decide. Both teams are 6-5, tied for the lead in their division, and need this game badly or they're going to scramble to get back in playoff position. And expect some scoring: Last time they played, both teams scored more than 40 points.

Record this year: 86-70-4

Record last week: 10-6-0

Thanksgiving Picks: 1-2-0

Have a question or opinion on this article you'd like to share? Feel free to comment openly, or you can send me an email at [e-mail].