2011 MLB Playoffs: Previewing the Keys for the Phillies vs. Cardinals NLDS

Baseball fans, prepare because it is that time of year again. You can throw away regular season stats, MVP numbers, pitching ERA and records because it is time to start fresh in the postseason.

Every team starts with a clean 0-0 slate and has a chance to rectify regular season performances or build upon them. For the Phillies and the Cardinals, this is exactly the case.

The Phillies finished the season with the most wins, but in their head-to-head matchups, the Cardinals dominated.

Both of these teams have a chance to make their mark on the playoffs and here are the keys, in no particular order, that each team will need in order to advance to the NLCS.

1. The Battle of the Bats: Ryan Howard vs. Albert Pujols

First basemen Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols are about as much of powerhouses as a team can get, and the production these players can provide may well make the difference in the Phillies or Cardinals winning the NLDS.

It is obvious that Pujols is a better player than Howard. He hits for average, strikes out less and is more consistent and clutch. Pujols also has some speed and managed to steal nine bases on the season, while Howard had none.

Howard's 33 HR and 116 RBI were matched by Pujols' 37 HR and 99 RBI. In terms of power production, the sluggers are closely matched, but in average, Pujols hit almost .50 points above Howard. His clutch hitting helped the Cardinals make the playoffs.

While Pujols is a better hitter, there are more elements that will factor into the matchup. For example, Pujols has to face Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and possibly Roy Oswalt. He is facing tougher pitchers than Howard will have to face with Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson and Chris Carpenter.

Also, as I mentioned in the opening, regular season stats don't matter in the playoffs. Both Howard and Pujols have had postseason success, including 2006 for Pujols and 2008 for Howard, when the sluggers each hit three HRs and led their teams to victory.

Key: This matchup will be close, and ultimately, if both men have similar stats, it won't make too much of a difference. What will make a difference though is if one man puts the team on his back while the other just sits in the shadows. 

2. Hunter Pence and the Houston Astros Equation

Although Ryan Howard's production is something that the Phillies will look to in the postseason, they are not as concerned as in the past, mostly because they have another bat to rely upon.

Hunter Pence is key for the Phillies in beating the Cardinals for several reasons. His production in the three hole and at the top of the heart of the line up will determine the RBI opportunities for Howard and Raul Ibanez or John Mayberry Jr.

Pence will also be important in the three hole because if leadoff man Jimmy Rollins and two-hole hitter Chase Utley can get on base, Pence's responsibility would be to get them home or advance them to scoring position, both of which he is very capable of doing.

Pence is one of the three former Astros on the Phillies line up and this itself will be a key to the Phillies if they hope to beat the Cardinals. Both Pence and Roy Oswalt will factor largely into the Phillies success based partly on the fact that they are familiar with their opponent. Pence knows St. Louis' pitching tendencies better than anyone else on the Phillies line up.

While this in itself does not mean too much, Pence's overall success against the Cardinals is telling. In 63 ABs this year against his former divisional foe, Pence has 22 hits, 6 doubles, 1 HR and an average of .349.

Oswalt also has a significant advantage when going against the Cardinals. On the pitching side of the ball, Oswalt knows a lot of the tendencies of the Cardinals hitters. This year Oswalt went 1-1 in three starts against St. Louis but only gave up five runs in 14 innings pitched for an ERA slightly above 3.00.

Key: If Pence and Oswalt take advantage of the Astros connection, then the Phillies will have a great shot at advancing to the next round of the playoffs.

3. Will the Injured Matt Holliday Play?

That is the question that Cardinals fans want to know. If Holliday plays, the Cardinals are instantly a better team. He is the third piece in the offensive juggernaut that also features Pujols and Lance Berkman.

Without Holliday in the lineup, the Cardinals are still productive but they are not nearly as fearful.

Holliday brings to the Cardinals a .296 average, 22 HR and 75 RBI from the all important clean-up spot, where he has batted for the majority of the season. With Pujols in front of him and Berkman behind him, Holliday has gotten opportunities galore this season and most of the time, he capitalized.

With Holliday injured, the Cardinals lose this power and punch from the heart of the lineup. The Phillies pitchers won't have to worry about letting Pujols beat them and can pitch around Berkman if they so choose.

With Holliday in the lineup, this is possible, but it could lead to bases loaded, which is something the Phillies certainly do not want to do.

Key: If Matt Holliday plays, the Cardinals powerful and productive lineup is that much better and will give the Phillies pitchers that much more trouble. For this reason, Holliday's health is key to the Cardinals chances.

4. The Phillies Pitching Rotation: Match Ups, Match Ups, Match Ups!

With four of the best pitchers in baseball, it is easy to say that against any team, the Phillies have the edge when it comes to pitching match ups. Against the Cardinals, not only is this true but it is completely lopsided. The Phillies have an obvious edge when it comes to the starting four.

Game 1: Roy Halladay vs. Kyle Lohse

Game 1 pits the Phillies ace and defending Cy Young Award winner against the Cardinals No. 1 in Lohse. The Cardinals already start off at a disadvantage since Lohse, a guy who would maybe take the four spot is pitching for the Phillies, is the ace of their staff.

Halladay not only had better regular-season success than Lohse but he also has more postseason experience. In his first-ever postseason start, Halladay pitched a no-hitter and although he lost a pivotal start against San Francisco, last year allowed the Phillies ace to get postseason experience under his belt.

Game Two: Cliff Lee vs. Edwin Jackson

This match up is not even close. The edge clearly goes to the Phillies' Lee. Not only does Lee have a better win-loss record, strike out total, WHIP and ERA than Jackson, Lee also has the most important stat and that is postseason experience.

Jackson has never really found consistency with one team having gone among six in his short career. He has no postseason experience and against Lee's dominance and World Series experience, Jackson won't stand a chance.

Game Three: Cole Hamels vs. Chris Carpenter

This is the least lopsided match that the Cardinals will face. Although Hamels is an ace on most staffs, he will be faced with a very talented Carpenter. Carpenter may not have had a great season this year, but it was only a few years ago that he was vying for a Cy Young.

Against Carpenter, the Phillies lineup will have a tough go of it, especially since Carpenter has been heating up in the last month of the season. If the Cardinals go into this game down 2-0, which is entirely possible, Carpenter's pitching will be key if they want a shot at moving on to the NLCS.

Key: The Phillies offense must play to their ability to allow the team to take advantage of the favorable pitching match ups. 

5. It Comes Down to Game 1

This may seem like an obvious one. Of course, winning Game 1 is important, but in this series, especially for the Cardinals, it could mean the difference between going home or staying to play in October.

The Cardinals will face Roy Halladay in Game 1and if Halladay pitches anything like he did in his NLDS debut last year, the Cardinals will be in for a world of trouble.

With the prospect of facing Cliff Lee in Game 2, Cole Hamels in Game 3 and Roy Oswalt in a possible Game 4, it is essential that the Cardinals get start the 2011 NLDS with a win. That, however, is easier said than done.

For the Phillies, it will also be important to get a Game 1 win. They have the better pitcher going and it would be quite deflating if Halladay went down with a loss.

For the Phillies. who won their last four games, winning Game 1 also means continuing to carry their momentum. Last year when Halladay pitched and won Game 1, the Phillies swept through the NL's best offense in the Cincinnati Reds.

Key: If the Phillies win Game 1, they will easily sweep the series. If the Cardinals win Game 1, they will go up against Lee up 1-0 and will be able to go back to St. Louis with at least one win. For both teams, Game 1 will make all of the difference.

6. Cardinals: Building on Momentum and Regular-Season Success Against Phillies

The Cardinals finished their 2011 season by winning 18 of 26 games in the month of September, including sweeping the Braves and taking three of four from the Phillies.

Their unprecedented success, coupled with the Braves devastating collapse, helped St. Louis go from 10.5 games back at the beginning of September to sipping champagne as the NL Wildcard Winners.

The Cardinals have all of the momentum going into the NLDS and they also seem to have the baseball gods on their side. They overcame what looked to be impossible and defied all of the odds. They silenced their critics, made the playoffs and hope to take this momentum all the way to the World Series.

Besides momentum, the Cardinals also have a 6-3 record against the Phillies in 2011. They are the only team in MLB to have given losses to Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt, and their pitchers have not allowed the Phillies offense to score a lot of runs. 

Building on this regular season success against the Phillies is easier said than done, however. If the Cardinals cannot win Game 1, any advantage they may have had from beating the Phillies in the regular season will be gone.

Not only that, but the Phillies will have won their last five games and will have quickly stolen the momentum of the Cardinals.

Key: If the Cardinals cannot keep their momentum alive, their time in the playoffs will be over very quickly.

7. The Perfect Bullpen Equation Doesn't Exist for the Phillies

Let's face it, it is not 2008. There is no "Lights-Out" Lidge, there is no "bridge to Lidge," with Madson and there is no perfectly planned bullpen for the Phillies.

In 2008, the Phillies bullpen was one of the biggest reasons the team won the World Series. Closer Brad Lidge was a perfect 40-40 in the regular season and a perfect 5-5 in the postseason and with Ryan Madson setting up with eighth inning duties, the Phillies were undefeated at 80-0 when having a lead going into the eighth inning.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, the 2011 bullpen is far from perfect. This season has seen the Phillies cycle through four closers until finally settling with Madson. He has managed to fit into the role pretty well, but with him closing, the bigger question mark remained in who would take over his eighth-inning duties.

The Phillies auditioned almost all of their bullpen arms for this duty. They thought they had Madson's replacement in rookie Michael Stutes, but he burned out towards the end of the year and the Phillies bullpen once again had question marks.

The perfect scenario for the Phillies is to have their starters go eight innings and then hand the ball to Madson. Although this is entirely possible with the arms of the Phillies starting four, it is unlikely to follow that formula in every start.

Key: In 2009 and 2010, the Phillies bullpen woes cost them in the postseason. If the Phillies want to beat the Cardinals and eventually win the World Series, they will have to find some sort of consistency with their bullpen.

8. Jimmy Rollins: Final Audition to Convince the Phillies to Re-Sign Him

Jimmy Rollins is not exactly a key to determine the Phillies success. What is key, however, is how Rollins is out to prove himself worthy of getting a big contract with not just the Phillies, but any other contending team. Because this is on the line, Rollins should have a big postseason, and that will ultimately bode well for the Phillies.

Rollins has really not been the star player he was since winning the MVP in 2007. He has been plagued with injuries and an aging body that has slowed him down a step or two. Rollins contends that he is not done playing, however, and SI.com has reported that he is seeking a five-year deal.

With Jose Reyes being the top prize of this fall's free agent market, Rollins is still looking to prove that he is a viable shortstop option.

The 32-year-old Rollins managed to put forth a solid effort this year for the Phillies. His 16 HR and 63 RBI were among the top five in a single year in his career and his batting average of .268 was only a few points below Rollins' career average.

What is most important however is that Rollins' body was able to last an entire Major League season. He played in 142 of 162 games, which is better than what he was able to play in during the past few years.

Rollins' regular season stats proved that he still has some gas left in the tank and that he is durable enough to last a full Major League season. He is now out to prove that he can do the same in the postseason.

In a manner of speaking, this is Rollins' final audition for a suitor. He has expressed interest in staying with the Phillies, the team he has played his entire 11-year career for but for what he wants the Phillies may be unable to re-sign him.

Despite this however, Rollins needs to have a good postseason. It will make him look that much better when the free agent frenzy begins.

Key: Because Rollins is playing for a contract, he looks to have a good postseason both offensively and on the base paths. His ability to score runs and get on base will be important for the Phillies to get off to quick leads against the Cardinals. 

9. Home-Field Advantage and the Fan Factor

Having to face the Phillies in the first round is certainly not what the Cardinals would have chosen. Having to face them for the first two games at Citizens Bank Park, well that is something no team wants to have to go up against.

I'm not here to tell you that Phillies fans are the best in sports because this is debatable. What I can say however is that Phillies fans are passionate. Like them or hate them, there is no denying that they love their Phillies and they show it.

Citize's Bank Park gives the Phillies a psychological advantage in the form of the fans. Imagine being a Cardinal at Citizens Bank Park. Imagine a sold-out ballpark with every inch filled in a sea of red. Then imagine those fans cheering louder than any noise you've ever heard in your life and know that they aren't cheering for you or your team.

Imagine having to try to concentrate on the mound or at the plate when all you can see is the circling movement of white towels waving throughout the ballpark. Even for the most veteran of ball players, this kind of atmosphere can be intimidating.

Being home for the Phillies also means an extensive knowledge of how Citizens Bank Park plays. The Phillies will know how to play the caroms, where the best place to lay down a bunt is, how to play short hops, where the wind carries most, the best place to hit home runs, how to hit a double in the gap and how to pitch in a hitter's ballpark, among other things.

Key: The Phillies have a clear advantage getting to play Games 1 and 2 at home. If they win both, then they will head to St. Louis with the Cardinals barely hanging on. At this point, it will most likely be too late for a rebound considering that to close out the series the Cardinals would have to return to the Phillies' home ballpark.

10. Best Rotation vs. Best Offense: Does Pitching Really Win Championships?

I'm sure everyone has heard the saying that, "Defense wins championships," but for the Phillies in the NLDS they are relying more on pitching winning championships. Against the Cardinals, the Phillies pitching will be front and center, and its success will determine the Phillies' success and whether they advance to the NLCS.

Against the Cardinals, the Phillies pitchers are going up against the NL's best offense. The team hit for a Major League-best .273 batting average with their starting eight hitting for an even better percentage. The power numbers were there as well for the Cardinals as they hit 162 HRs and scored an NL-best 762 runs.

With Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday headlining the offense, the Cardinals certainly look to score a lot of runs. Other than the possibility that Holliday might not play due to injury, the main thing stopping the Cardinals from high scoring games is the Phillies starting pitching.

The Phillies starting four of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt gave up an amazingly low 2.79 ERA. The Phillies had the best pitching in all of baseball as their entire team had an era of 3.02 counting in starters, relievers and even SS Wilson Valdez's clean inning in a 19-inning game earlier in the season.

Plainly put, the Phillies pitching has been dominant this year. What is scary, however, is that the pitchers and their stats could have been even better if the offense scored more runs.

Because the Phillies offense is not as potent as it was in 2008, the pitching is going to have to lead them to victory. With guys like Lee and Halladay on the mound, the offense really only needs to average three runs a game. Against the Cardinals, they may need to score a bit more, but overall I think the Phillies pitchers will shut down the Cardinals offense.

Key: The beleaguered and tired Cardinals offense is in for a tough run against the well-rested Phillies starting staff. It looks that at least in the NLDS, the Phillies pitching will be better than the Cardinals offense, and that pitching will advance the Phillies to the next round.