2011 NFL Survivor Pools: Week 4 Picks and Analysis

Football has taken a back seat this week after Wednesday night's unbelievable finishes in Major League Baseball. The Rays entered September down nine games to the Red Sox and surpassed them for the wild card exactly three minutes after Jonathan Papelbon blew the save against the Orioles with an Evan Longoria walk-off. But, amid all this anxiety, excitement and celebration, I was still able to relate the night to the NFL.

Theo Epstein looked as if he was about to turn into Al Davis after Papelbon blew it and that is nothing you would ever want to happen. 

Jonathan Papelbon reminded me of the New England Patriots. The Pats were up 21-0 over the Bills in Buffalo and seemed as if it would be smooth sailing, until they blew it. Papelbon struck out the first two batters in the bottom of the ninth in Baltimore and seemed as if the playoffs were a pitch away, until they blew it. 

Evan Longoria reminded me of Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, who single handedly kept Dallas in the game on Monday night and ultimately got them past the Redskins.

The Cardinals, another comeback story, were down 10.5 games in the Wild Card in late August and clinched it Wednesday night with a win and Brave loss. They reminded me of the resilient Detroit Lions. They were down 20-0 at the half, in Minnesota, a place they haven’t won since 1997, and pulled it out in overtime. 

With that in the past and the playoffs about to get underway, we look ahead to Week 4 in the NFL.

Week 4 Games I Like:

 Eagles over the 49ers

Another week and another injury to Michael Vick. He will once again play through pain and anguish to get the Eagles back on track at home. The “Dream Team” is in trouble and the lowly 49ers are coming to town, a perfect recipe. LeSean McCoy’s 2011 season is being very overshadowed by the constant injuries of Vick. No one seems to notice that he’s second in the NFL with 345 rushing yards and first among backs with four touchdowns. He will be featured once again this week against the tough rush defense of San Fran. Expect the Eagles to grind this one out.

Saints over the Jaguars 

Last weekend, Blaine Gabbert seemed to play better in the monsoon-like first half than the sunny, clear second half. Sunday’s forecast in Jacksonville is mostly sunny with a nice, brisk 77 degrees. That could spell disaster for Gabbert, not to mention the Saints are coming to town. They are coming off a good, old-fashioned shootout win over the Texans and will be firing on all cylinders once again. Saints roll big and comfortably.

Falcons over the Seahawks 

Here is my second road team pick of the week. I don’t like doing it, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Seattle is a tough, loud place to play but the Falcons cannot afford to go 1-3. They weren’t able to establish the running game last week against Tampa Bay and they may have more trouble against an underrated Seahawk run defense. Seattle is coming off a motivational conference win over the Cardinals but when push comes to shove, Matty Ice will prevail over Tarvaris Jackson.

Packers over the Broncos 

Here is your lock of the week. The Packers are off to their best start since 2007 and are looking poised for another Super Bowl run. Each of their first three games have been decided by 10 points or less, but Rodgers and company have clearly been the superior team in each matchup. Ryan Grant is likely out in this one and Duane Starks will pick up the workload. That is not a bad thing as Starks has looked very good this season. I don’t expect this one to be a 10-point affair, maybe 20.

Happy Surviving.