Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Roundtable: Week 13

Bruno Boys Cavigs: Alright Bruno Boys Nation, we are about 36 hours from the Week 13 Sunday kickoff and as always Bruno Boys Whooley, Bruno Boys Ziza and myself, Bruno Boys Cavigs, are here to break down some key fantasy football match-ups. So sit back, relax and enjoy our action packed Week 13 Roundtable. And, I hope all of you in Bruno Boys Nation had a Happy Thanksgiving!

--------------------

Week 13 Burning Questions!

1. Which running back will emerge over the season's final five weeks and challenge Adrian Peterson with the No. 1 overall pick in 2009 fantasy football drafts? 

Bruno Boys Whooley: The beauty of the 2009 draft will be that you can snag pick #4 and still get a running back that will be heavily involved in the debate for the number one overall choice.

The distinction will be between the fabulous foursome of Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Michael Turner, and rookie, Matt Forte.

In reality, you couldn't go wrong with any of these choices; however, owners will need to make a decision. I think in the end, the debate will revolve around Peterson and Forte, two young runners taking the league by storm.

It's not that Portis and Turner aren't worthy of the top spot, but with Portis' banged up body and Turner's hit or miss type outings, there are just more questions surrounding the two.

In the end, the nod has to go to Peterson, who's proven he can get it done in the NFL for two years compared to Forte's one.

However, don't be quick to dismiss LaDainian Tomlinson.  If the Chargers' back finishes the season strong, fantasy owners may be enticed to take a gamble on him again next season.

Bruno Boys Ziza: So many things can happen from now until the start of the 2009 draft season such as injuries, trades, teams going in a different directions and philosophy, not to mention who knows what everyone's 2009 schedule looks like.

I know that both of you guys are Forte fans, as am I, but I am not going to go as far as you two and say that Forte will be drafted first. I just don't see it happening.

We have yet to see how the Bears will finish out the season, but Forte has not done anything that would prove that a healthy Peterson AND a healthy Tomlinson should not go 1-2 in some type of order.

LT is banged up, can't cut like he normally would, thus the Chargers have gone more to a passing game this season. When all is said and done it is LT and Peterson along with Portis to work out the top-3. After that, it is anyone's game.

But remember, young backs don't always do so well during their sophomore campaigns, so if I am holding the No. 2 pick, you can rest assured Forte will not be crossing my mind.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: Through 12 weeks, Michael Turner is the top overall running back in terms of fantasy football points but he has more than half of his points in three games. I think he will be a high pick in 2009, but I wouldn't take his up and down performances with the No. 1 overall pick. 

Ultimately, if I had the top pick I would take Adrian Peterson, but the guy I could see going tops in some leagues is Matt Forte. The rookie running back has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this year and the fact that he can beat you on the ground or by the air makes him a safe pick to duplicate his numbers in 2009.

--------------------

2. With just five weeks left in the NFL season, who is the fantasy football MVP through the seasons first 12 weeks? 

Bruno Boys Cavigs: In my opinion the fantasy football MVP has to go to Kurt Warner of the Arizona Cardinals. He has 300+ receiving yards in five straight games and has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in nine of 12 games this season.

Plus, outside of a six-turnover game in Week 4, Warner has taken care of the football and contributing 20+ fantasy points per week to his owners.

Bottom line: you can make a case for other guys, but if I had to rely on one player to win me a fantasy match up it would be Warner.

Bruno Boys Whooley: Warner is an excellent choice as Bruno Boys Cavigs points out, especially when you consider he was selected on average at the 131st spot in fantasy drafts. But, for the sake of argument, I'm going to throw the name Matt Forte into the mix.

Like Warner, Forte is greatly outplaying his draft position. Drafted on average at the 67th spot, Forte is giving his owners first round value.

The Bears' back has gone for double digits in every game this season except one. I mean, it's come to the point where he's now in the debate for next year's first overall selection. If that's not MVP caliber, I don't know what is.

Bruno Boys Ziza:  When you guys mention MVP's, I think of a player that has out performed his position on a whole other level than anyone else has.

Cavigs, you mention Warner. Whooley, you mention Forte, and despite them outplaying their draft position by a huge margin, I really don't think that warrants a free ride to MVP consideration.

Look at the numbers closely. Heading into week 13, seven of the top ten point scorers this season have been at QB. In fact, the difference between the No. 1 QB and the No. 7 QB is just 36 points, and that No. 7 quarterback would be Peyton Manning, who is on fire as of late, meaning the gap could be closed even further in the next couple of weeks.

Then you go to RB's. Forte ranks No. 3 behind Turner and Portis, but then has nine other RB's within around 20 fantasy points of himself for the 2008 totals. That does not reek of excellence amongst excellence either, if you ask me.

My MVP for the 2008 fantasy football season goes to WR Anquan Boldin. Despite missing a few games due to a horrific injury, he leads all WR's in fantasy points. He is the only WR so far with double-digit TD's with 11, the next closest being 8 and is in the top-6 for reception yardage.

If he hadn't missed any time, can you imagine what his numbers really could have been? And unlike both of your candidates, Boldin does not have a rival for what he does every single game, the next closest being Larry Fitzgerald, his partner. But if Fitzgerald had missed some time and Boldin had not, the numbers would even be further apart.

--------------------

Lightning Round! (Fantasy Football Questions in a Flash)

Real Deal or One Week Wonder

1. Maurice Morris: 17 points vs. Washington

Bruno Boys Ziza:  ONE WEEK WONDER. Morris had not done much until the excellent week against Washington in Week 12. There is no doubt in my mind that he will return to a RB that can get the TD once in a great while, but for the most part be more of a supporting cast member than a leader.

Bruno Boys Whooley: ONE WEEK WONDER. As I type this, Morris currently sits with just three fantasy points for his week 13 outing. Not quite the follow up a "real deal" would have to the 17-point effort he had last week. In fact, Morris' week 12 outing was the only outing of the season in which he has gone for double digits.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: ONE WEEK WONDER. Over the past few weeks Morris has emerged as the primary running back in Seattle but he still is more of a hit-or-miss option than a solid weekly threat. He might have a good game or two left in the tank, but his risk outweighs his reward.

--------------------

2. Darren McFadden: 16 points @ Denver

Bruno Boys Ziza:  NEITHER. Let me explain why. His role has changed a little over the past week. Since he can not cut and slash, the Raiders coaching staff has decided to use his brawn and turn him into a goal-line back. He had 10 rushes for 38 yards and another 2 receptions for a total of 14 yards.

That is a combined 52 yards, worth 5.2 fantasy points. The TD's are what put him over the top, adding another 12 points to his value in most leagues. Those TD's won't be there every week, but they could come again.

Bruno Boys Whooley: REAL DEAL. With the success of rookie runners like Chris Johnson and Matt Forte, McFadden, who was supposed to be the elite runner of this class has been somewhat a disappointment this season as he's been bitten by the injury bug, but look for the Raiders' back to finish off the season on a high note as Oakland faces some of the weaker rush defenses in the league.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: REAL DEAL. The Raiders did a good job of getting McFadden involved around the goal line and with some favorable match ups the rest of the year, he should be able to act as a solid fantasy contributer from here on out.

--------------------

3. Isaac Bruce - 18 points @ Dallas

Bruno Boys Cavigs: NEITHER. The 49ers passing game has played better of late but Bruce disappears from game at times and shouldn't be counted on to put up a healthy amount of points on a weekly basis.

Bruno Boys Whooley: ONE WEEK WONDER. I understand that a Mike Martz offense can lead to good fantasy numbers for wide receivers, as evidenced by Bruce's 18 points against Dallas, but the inconsistency Bruce has shown this season frightens me. In the five weeks prior to the 18 point performance, Bruce had just 13 combined points.

Bruno Boys Ziza: ONE WEEK WONDER. When there is a big game on the line such as the Dallas one, what do you think Martz is going to do? I will tell ya, use his most noted weapon that he is familiar with. If Gore was producing one inkling last week Bruce would not have done what he had done. When the dust settles on this glorious season, Bruce will find himself staring at that week as his best from there on out.

--------------------

4. Ashley Lelie - 15 points @ Denver

Bruno Boys Cavigs: ONE WEEK WONDER. Lelie started out the season as the Raiders go-to receiver and than disappeared for two months. Plus, he played with an extra incentive in this game because Denver was the team that cut him two years ago. Bottom line: keep him on your league's waiver wire.

Bruno Boys Whooley: ONE WEEK WONDER. Half of Lelie's 30 fantasy points on the season came in this game. Do you really want to trust a guy who was missing for 10 games this season?

Bruno Boys Ziza:  ONE WEEK WONDER. The Raiders do not face the Broncos every week and considering that Lelie did all of his damage on only 4 receptions, having totaled only 7 receptions the past 4 games combined. There is no way he does this again and again and again.

--------------------

Week 13 Weekly Match-ups! (Who'll Have the Better Week?)

1. Shaun Hill vs. Trent Edwards

Bruno Boys Cavigs: EDWARDS. Shaun Hill has played surprisingly well from a fantasy standpoint, but Edwards was back on track last week and should have a field day against the 29th-ranked 49ers pass defense. In fact, Edwards makes a good Week 13 plug-n-play option.

Bruno Boys Whooley: EDWARDS. West Coast teams have not fared well when traveling East, and that will be the case here as the Bills will handedly defeat the Niners. With that being the case, look for Edwards to finish with the better day.

Bruno Boys Ziza: EDWARDS. I really don't think either player should be sitting in someone's fantasy football lineup if their season is on the line, but when it comes down to it, it is Edwards not Hill that I would plug in this week.

---------------

2. Willis McGahee vs. LeRon McClain vs. Ray Rice 

Bruno Boys Cavigs: MCCLAIN. Trying to predict which Baltimore running back will be the top option from week-to-week isn't worth anyone's time. However, McClain had the big Week 12, so I give him the edge until John Harbaugh decides otherwise.

Bruno Boys Whooley: MCCLAIN. Over the past two weeks, McClain has gone for double-digit fantasy points in each of the Ravens' games, while Rice and McGahee have combined for a mere seven points over that span. You have to go with the hot hand here.

Bruno Boys Ziza: RICE. With the season winding down, McGahee not producing once again and the two young RB's going head to head I think it is Rice's gig to lose. But one thing is for sure, we have all written off McGahee a few times this year only for him to prove us wrong. Anything can happen. If your season is on the line, don't play any of these RB's.

--------------------

3. Dallas Clark vs. Kellen Winslow

Bruno Boys Cavigs: CLARK. My gut tells me Winslow, but he has done nothing to warrant me taking him over the steady Clark. The safe choice is Clark, but don't be surprised if Winslow gets back on track this week.

Bruno Boys Whooley: CLARK. Not only has Winslow not been in sync with Derek Anderson, who will once again be under center for the Browns this weekend, but he also has to face a Colts' pass defense that has allowed just four scores on the year.

Bruno Boys Ziza: CLARK. Who has the better talent? Winslow. Who is healthy? Clark. Who has the steady QB? Clark. Who is still playing for something? Clark. You have to go Clark.

--------------------

4. DeAngelo Williams vs. Ryan Grant

Bruno Boys Ziza: WILLIAMS. During the past four weeks, Williams has put up a combined total of 506 yards and 5 TDs, punching in at least one every single week. During that stretch he has also topped 100 yards. Green Bay is easier to run on than Carolina, so if you are going to play one of these cats this week, play Williams.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: WILLIAMS. The speedster has done a great job of taking advantage of his opportunity and has put together five straight games with 10+ fantasy points. You can expect much of the same against a Packers rush defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry.

Bruno Boys Whooley: WILLIAMS. Even with Grant looking more like the 2007 version that fantasy owners fell in love with, Williams gets the nod as the Panthers' back has tallied 12 or more fantasy points in 5 straight games.

--------------------

5. Brett Favre vs. Jay Cutler

Bruno Boys Ziza: CUTLER. Neither one is a top-play in my mind this week. Neither has done well the past few games and to be honest, neither are impressive in TD's the past four weeks either.

So when it comes to what have you done for me lately, Cutler did pass for over 300 yards in Weeks 9 and 10, with Week 10 being a huge week of 447 passing yards and 3 TD's.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: FAVRE. The Jets have won five games in a row and Brett Favre is starting to take care of the football. Expect the seasoned veteran to teach the struggling youngster a thing or two. And even at this stage in his career, I'd still take Favre's fastball over Cutler's.

Bruno Boys Whooley: FAVRE. With all the injuries that have befallen the Broncos' back field, the passing game has suffered as teams can focus on keeping Cutler and Co. in check. Look for the Jets to employ that strategy this Sunday.

--------------------

6. Ted Ginn Jr. vs. Torry Holt vs. Donnie Avery

Bruno Boys Ziza: GINN JR. With his counter-part banged up, Ginn Jr. should have an excellent week against the weaker Rams defense. If your league also adds in special teams play, there is no question about it. Either way, Ginn Jr. Is averaging well over 10 yards per reception this year and he should be able to find paydirt for the second time this season.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: HOLT. Everyone knows Holt has been a bust this year, but he has nine receptions over the last two games and he should be able to have his way against Miami's mediocre cornerbacks. Don't be surprised if he gets double-digit fantasy points for the third time this year.

Bruno Boys Whooley: GINN JR. I just can't trust anyone on the Rams' offense not named Steven Jackson. Plus, no Greg Camarillo means Ginn Jr. steps into the No. 1 wide receiver slot for the Dolphins. It's a good place to be this weekend, as the Rams have given up 16 passing TDs on the year. 

--------------------

7. Lance Moore vs. Marques Colston vs. Antonio Bryant

Bruno Boys Whooley: MOORE. The Saints wideout has 5 TDs in the last four games, need I say Moore. (Oh yeah, word play!)

Bruno Boys Cavigs: MOORE. Instantly, you think Colston is the choice, but Moore has been one of the best receivers in football and has scored over 10 fantasy points in 5 games this year.

Bruno Boys Ziza: MOORE. There have not been many receivers that have produced better than Moore the past four games, which is how far I like to look back to see what type of roll a player is on.

During the past month, he has put up an average of 95.8 YPG and has averaged 1.25 TD's a week. Ride the hot hand. That is my second fantasy football commandment, right after always start your studs.

--------------------

8. Clinton Portis vs. Brandon Jacobs vs. Derrick Ward

Bruno Boys Whooley: PORTIS.  Yes, the Giants' running game is tops in the league, but that production is shared production. Meanwhile, Portis is the man for Washington, a role that has helped propel him to the No. 2 position among fantasy running backs as we head into the weekend.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: PORTIS. Both running backs are hurting, but Portis has done a better job of playing with the pain and he should get the most touches out of the group. And as you know, the more touches, the better the chance to make a big play.

Bruno Boys Ziza: PORTIS. Both of these run defenses are very tough to score on so you have to go with the man with the master plan, and this year it has been Portis.

Even with him being banged up, there is no doubt that he will be utilized heavily out of the backfield, not only for rushing but most likely for receptions as well. I don't think any of these backs has a shot at being a top producer this week though.

--------------------

9. Michael Turner vs. LaDainian Tomlinson 

Bruno Boys Whooley: TURNER. Student will become master in this one as the former back-up, Turner, outperforms LT in this one. I mean, how can you go against a guy with a 182 fantasy points on the year?

Bruno Boys Cavigs: TURNER. After watching him score four rushing touchdowns last week you can't go against the hot hand. Plus, Turner has eight touchdowns over the past 7 games, while Tomlinson has two.

Bruno Boys Ziza: TURNER. It is not that I think Turner is the better back, because I don't. What I do believe is that Atlanta will need to run the ball with authority to keep the Chargers passing game off of the field as much as possible. By default, Turner will be used more and should be the better play.

--------------------

10. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Matt Cassel

Bruno Boys Whooley: ROETHLISBERGER. Yes, Cassel has two straight 400-yard outings, but those came against the lowly pass defenses of the Jets and Dolphins. The number-one ranked pass defense of the Steelers will slow his roll.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: ROETHLISBERGER. I don't care if Matt Cassel has turned into Tom Brady over the past two weeks, Roethlisberger is a seasoned veteran who takes on a pass defense that has allowed 19 touchdowns this  year.

Bruno Boys Ziza: ROETHLISBERGER. Do you really think Moss is going to have three TD's against Pittsburgh? Yeah, me neither.

--------------------

11. Tyler Thigpen vs. Oakland Pass Defense

Bruno Boys Whooley: THIGPEN. Nnamdi Asomugha is what makes the Oakland pass defense a bad match-up for any quarterback, but while Asomugha may shut down Dwayne Bowe, he can't at the same time cover Tony Gonzalez.

Thigpen may not reach the numbers he has of late, but he won't be too far off. Remember, Thigpen did have 10 points back in week 2 against Oakland, and he wasn't nearly the quarterback then that he is now.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: OAKLAND PASS DEFENSE. To say that Thigpen will be shut out is a stretch, but look for Oakland to be the first defense to hold Thigpen in check for the first time in a month.

Bruno Boys Ziza: NEITHER. I don't think it is the pass defense that will stop Thigpen, it is their rush defense which will make Larry Johnson a hot play this week. Either way, and I am not being sarcastic here, this could turn out to be one of the harder fought, more entertaining games to watch.

--------------------

12. Matt Forte vs. Adrian Peterson

Bruno Boys Whooley: PETERSON. Currently, Forte has the edge on overall fantasy points this season with 166 to Peterson's 165, but look for Peterson to regain the advantage after this one. All Day shows up for the big division games, going for 24 against the Bears and 28 against the Packers earlier this season. He'll show up for this one.

Bruno Boys Ziza: PETERSON. I love what both of these backs have done this year, but when it comes down to it, Chicago will also be trying to pass on Minnesota. I think that Peterson enjoys a heck of a week once again against the Chicago Bears defense who allowed AP to run for 121 yards and 2 TD's in their last match up.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: PETERSON. You can't go wrong with either back and they both are must starts, but Peterson had the better game the first time around and he should be able to have his way again.

--------------------

13. David Garrard vs. Sage Rosenfels

Bruno Boys Whooley: ROSENFELS. Neither quarterback has a true advantage based on the match-up as these two teams rank 13th (Houston) and 14th (Jacksonville) against the pass; thus, I'm going with the quarterback that has the better weapons, especially, when you figure the Jags game plan will involve a healthy dose of Maurice Jone-Drew and Fred Taylor.

Bruno Boys Ziza: ROSENFELS. During this match up there is no question that you are going to see a lot of running from the Jaguars because of Houston's inability to stop the run. At the same time, that works for Rosenfels who faces a Jaguars defense that can't defend the pass.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: ROSENFELS. The Jacksonville secondary is one of the worst in the league and Houston has far superior weapons at the wide receiver position. Plus, expect the Jaguars to feature a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew in this game.

-------------------

FOR MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL INSIGHT AND ADVICE, CLICK THE LINK BELOW...

Bruno Boys Fantasy Football