NL MVP Award: Handicapping the Race and Picking a Favorite

With the Major League Baseball regular season finally over, it is now time to see who wins the 2011 awards.  The NL MVP race has been one for the ages with players like Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun saying how all the way down the stretch. 

No player has locked up the trophy yet, so handicapping the race, let's see who should win.

Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki has had a great 2011 season, but compared to 2010 it is sub par.

His final line is 81 runs, 36 home runs, 105 runs batted in, .302 average, .544 slugging and a 6.2 wins above replacement. 

That puts Tulowitzki outside of the top 10 in Rs, HRs and AVG, but seventh in SLG percent, fifth in RBIs and sixth in the almighty WAR.

These numbers are pretty good, but not enough to be considered a worthy candidate over his other National League counterparts and Tulo and his Colorado Rockies will be watching the playoffs from the same place as me, the couch.

Justin Upton

Justin Upton is one of the best young players in the league, if not the best.  In his fourth full season at the ripe age of 24, the former first overall pick is proving well and is a valid MVP candidate.

He is one of three players with over 30 home runs and at least 20 stolen bases. He is also ninth in home runs with 31, third in runs with 105 and fourth in WAR at 6.5.

J-Up has also led his Arizona Diamondbacks to 94 wins and a division championship, something that Tulowitzki can't say. Upton carried his team on his back from the 97 losses they had last year and this will be their first playoff appearance since 2007.

Although all of this is pretty good, Upton will have to wait another year before he can win his first of many, I'm sure, MVPs.

Joey Votto

One more year in the books and another dominant one at that for Joey Votto.  Playing in his first injury free season, maybe Votto has finally shaken the injury bug.  You could consider this even a down year though for the Canadian wonder, but nonetheless, still an MVP type year.

He regressed in runs, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, average and slugging percent this year, but that just shows how dominant he was last year.  Votto is still third in WAR at 6.8, 10th with .529 slugging, seventh with .309 AVG, sixth with 103 RBI, and fifth in runs with 101. 

He is also one of only three players with at least 100 runs and RBIs.  All these statistics aside, Votto had a dominant season, but not worthy of this year's NL MVP.

Ryan Braun

Ryan Braun has had another magical season.  In his prime now, turning 28 in November, he had his first of many 30/30 seasons, and first in the NL since Hanley Ramirez did it in 2008. He is one of only two players who can say that in the National League.

Braun also had his third consecutive 100/100 season, which is the longest streak in the National League and he is one of only three players to achieve that this year. 

Braun finished fourth in the league in RBIs at 111, sixth with 33 HRs, second with 109 runs, second in average at .332, first with .597 slugging and second in WAR at 7.8.

This magical season Braun has had has led his Milwaukee Brewers to 96 wins and their first division title in 1982.  It will be hard for the voters not to give the trophy to the fifth year standout as he is miles ahead of my previous choices.  With all else aside, if I were handicapping the race, he wouldn't be the winner. 

That leaves me with...

Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp has had a monster season and deserves to win the NL MVP.  If he didn't play for the lowly Los Angeles Dodgers with only 82 wins, there would be no question.  I mean Kemp missed becoming the third player in National League history to join the 40/40 club by only one home run. 

Obviously Kemp joined Braun as the first player since 2008 to go for at least 30/30 though, which is a feat not to be disregarded. 

Kemp has had at least 600 at bats in four consecutive seasons now and he made every one count this year.  He finished first in home runs with 39, first with 115 runs, first with 126 RBI and first with a ridiculous 8.7 WAR.  Oh, and he also finished second in stolen bases with 40 and third in AVG at .324. This will go down as one of the most historic seasons in NL history.

Like I said before, if the Dodgers were in the playoffs, Kemp would hands down be, maybe even, the only possible NL MVP candidate.  Since the voters don't go that way though, he will be in a battle with Braun for the honors.

Both have had magical seasons, but there is no doubt, handicapping aside, Matt Kemp is my National League MVP.