WhatIfSports NFL Week 13 Predictions

Week 13 NFL Predictions

Boxscores and stats from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

Nov. 25, 2008

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here.

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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Game of the Week: No. 12 Bears 19 @ No. 15 Vikings 21

A crucial NFC North game between two inconsistent teams with equal records is as close as it gets "on paper" (or in this case—in computer). We simulated the Minnesota Vikings against the Chicago Bears 10,001 times and the Vikings won at home 5,006 of those games.

It's that close.

The division lead will come down to what amounts to a coin flip. Looking at the numbers, Minnesota has the clear edge in the running game—offensively and defensive—outgaining its opponents by 1.3 yards per carry (the Bears have a +0.7 yards per carry margin).

However, the Bears hold the clear advantage in the passing game with 12 fewer interceptions thrown and an overall QB rating 8.7 points higher than their opponents (Minnesota has thrown five more interceptions and allowed a QB rating 9.9 points higher).

With a game this close and the score this low (21-19 on average) one big play—a turnover returned for a TD, a long kick or punt return or a 60+ yard score—will be the difference. We are currently projecting both teams to go 2-2 after Week 13, which makes this weekend's evenly-matched contest even bigger.

As of right now, our projected NFC playoff teams are the Minnesota Vikings (by 0.1 percent over Chicago), New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys.

In the AFC, our projected playoff lineup includes the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos (at 7-9), Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Week 13 Scores for Every NFL Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Seattle @ Dallas	90.2	13-32	Boxscore
Denver @ New York Jets	79.3	19-31	Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Houston	72.8	19-28	Boxscore
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay	62.5	19-25	Boxscore
Kansas City @ Oakland	59.1	21-26	Boxscore
San Francisco @ Buffalo	58.3	19-24	Boxscore
Chicago @ Minnesota	50.1	19-21	Boxscore
Atlanta @ San Diego	41.7	28-27	Boxscore
Carolina @ Green Bay	40.1	22-21	Boxscore
New York Giants @ Washington	30.3	22-17	Boxscore
Pittsburgh @ New England	26.8	21-16	Boxscore
Arizona @ Philadelphia	24.1	25-18	Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Cleveland	15.4	28-17	Boxscore
Baltimore @ Cincinnati	12.6	21-10	Boxscore
Miami @ St. Louis	8	33-16	Boxscore
Tennessee @ Detroit	6	32-13	Boxscore

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!