FULL WAGERING MENU FOR THANKSGIVING DAY 2008

Wake up early—we start the day off @ 11am w/ Calder’s first race. We’ll have horses & sports for you.

CRC Calder Race Course

RACE 1

WIN CONTENDERS

5[6-1]---- May have a lone lead…

7[8-5]---- If healthy, fit, and ready would decimate this field…as its ML odds suggest.

2[4-1]---- Best closer—chance for top prize if frontrunner tires and 7 is not ready or suffers a trip mishap.

The rest are overmatched.

BTW #1 is best of the rest, but is a career maiden…and even though it will be advantageously placed inside, we recommend LAYING it(betting it to LOSE at an exchange).

EDIT: The way the post time odds go—7 is 1/5, 2 & 5 are 5 & 8 to 1 respectively….the play becomes a Dutch of: 2 & 5 WIN & EXACTAS:  7 OVER 2 & 5 & 1

RACE 5

WIN CONTENDERS

2[3-1]----Has improving numbers & the fastest closing time… projects to sit just off the lead.

3[6-1]----Small chance of winding up alone on an early lead… a danger at this short distance. Now, that is not very likely—but couple that with a decent price—& it becomes a must play.

7[5-1]----With continued improvement AND a clean break, ditto # 3. We actually prefer it over 3…but price rules(projected).

Just to clear up: the distance of this race, coupled with the young age of these horses, makes this a tough race to key on any one.
It’s very likely that 3 & 7 would duel each other into exhaustion, thus setting things up for 2.
And it’s actually even a bit more likely that 7 will win the early lead. 
But….. if watch head on shots of the start of races consistently, you’ll notice how this type of horse is not very good at at clean / straight break—it often is a wonder how many of these don’t fall down / are left behind at the break. As well, there are no others in here fast enough to keep up early w/ either of these…couple that with the short distance of this race… the small price of our leading contender(2nd ML fave)…and it’s tough to bet that the break will be uneventful for all.

LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS

IF you have access to an exchange, these are the candidates:

1- Cheap speed. Even when able to make lone lead, it falters late…at shorter distances to boot. This horse is only suited to bullring ovals where 4½ F distances are regularly carded. The coup de grace here is that its fastest early speed still places it some 10 lengths back of the quickest ones here.

4- Slow early and slow late…. should finish among the back of the pack.

6- Looks like a declining horse based on figs--- kinda confirmed by the rather quick & repeated willingness of its connections to  lower the asking price. NOW, we could be wrong…maybe it just bounced off the wet track effort…BUT as the ‘clear projected favorite’ makes no sense to back w/ our money. This horse only makes it into the win contender group with multiple scratches in the main contender group.

AQU AQUEDUCT

RACE 2

WIN CONTENDERS

Looks like only one possiblity==

2[3-1]— projects to have the lead all to itself.
2B[3-1]-entrymate has the fastest closing time.

BTW re ML favorite 6—looks like a career maiden…we will put it in LAY group.

LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS

everyone else looks overmatched… we will look to lay 8[safer] before 6(ml fave).